What The Smart Money Is Most Worried About: Here Are The Four Brand New "Tail Risks"

How things have changed in the subsequent month. As the chart below shows, the biggest investor fear in February had nothing to do with a Chinese recession or an EM Debt crisis, and everything to do with the dreaded "R" word right inside the gold ole' US of A. In fact, four of the top "tail risks" are brand news, and in addition to a US recession include energy debt defaults, quantitative failure and a topic we have been covering since mid-2015, China's relentlessly encroaching capital controls.

Consumer Confidence Crashes To 23-Year Low In Norway As Growth Grinds To A Halt

When last we checked in on Norway, we documented the country's currency conundrum which is keeping the krone from depreciating as much as the Norges Bank would probably like in the face of flagging economic growth. On Tuesday we get the latest data out of the country and sure enough, GDP growth has flatlined. A rate cut next month is now virtually assured. 

Did Someone 'Tap' The Atlanta Fed On The Shoulder In January?

In recent weeks, status-quo maintainers have pointed to The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast's resurgence as evidence that the market is just being irrational and that everything is awesome after all. Since we first brought the world's attention to this real-time forecast of US economic growth it has become closely-watched by all... which is why the most recent surge to +2.7% - in the face of dismal data - following our confrontation with The Fed in Janaury over "technical difficulties" makes us wonder if someone in Atlanta got a call from The Eccles Building to get on board...

One Third Of Energy Companies Could Go Bankrupt Deloitte Warns As Credit Risk Hits Record High

At 1600bps, the extra yield investors are demanding to take on US energy credit risk has never been higher. However, if a new report from Deloitte proves true, this is far from enough as they forecast roughly a third of oil producers are at high risk of slipping into bankruptcy this year as low commodity prices crimp their access to cash and ability to cut debt..."2016 is the year of hard decisions, where it will all come to a head."

Don't Confuse Genius With A Bull Market - 10 Steps To Redemption

Individuals are consistently promised that investing in the financial markets is the only way to financial success. After all, it’s so easy. Financial pundits across the country state the one simply buys a basket of mutual funds and they will make 8, 10 or 12% a year. Don’t confuse genius with a bull market. It’s not hard to make money in a roaring bull market. Keeping your gains when the bear comes prowling is the hard part.

Why Negative Interest Rates Will Fail

As with Japan, Western economies that pursue a long-term policy of low or negative interest rates can expect decades of low growth unless these “unorthodox” monetary policies are rapidly abandoned. Recessions are not a problem of insufficient demand. They are a problem of supply being misaligned with demand.

Oil Price Volatility Soars Near Record Highs

Oil prices (and the broader financial markets) have suffered from acute bouts of volatility so far in 2016, with dramatic intraday swings the most worrying feature, and as OilPrice.com's Charles Kennedy warns, this shows no signs of letting up.

Fed's Kashkari Says "We Won't See Next Crisis Coming", Compares Banks To Risky Nuclear Reactors

"Unfortunately, I am far more skeptical that these tools will be useful to policymakers in the second scenario of a stressed economic environment. Given the massive externalities on Main Street of large bank failures in terms of lost jobs, lost income and lost wealth, no rational policymaker would risk restructuring large firms and forcing losses on creditors and counterparties using the new tools in a risky environment, let alone in a crisis environment like we experienced in 2008. They will be forced to bail out failing institutions—as we were."

Trump Holds Commanding 20 Point National Lead Heading Into South Carolina

On the heels of a debate that at times appeared as though it might devolve into a fist fight (or two), Donald Trump holds a commanding national lead going into a key vote in South Carolina where Ted Cruz and Jeb Bush are hoping to get a boost from a tradionally conservative and evangelical electorate.

Crude Crashes 8% From OPEC "Cut Hope" Highs On Storage Concerns

Hope for production cuts were dashed early on as producers agreed to no change from the record high levels of production January - which Barclays says means 1mm bpd excess supply at current levels. However, following a Genscape report suggesting a major 705k build in Cushing crude inventories, WTI just broke down to a $28 handle (down over 8.5% from overnight highs)...

Yats Is Out: Victoria Nuland's Appointed Prime Minister Of Ukraine Is About To Replaced

Nearly two years after Victoria Nuland decided that "Yats" should be her puppet prime minister in Ukraine as part of the CIA-organized presidential coup, the latest embarrassment for the U.S. State Department is about to become a fact when moments ago Ukrainian billionaire president Petro Poroshenko called on Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk to resign and urged the formation of a technocratic government to end a political crisis and reignite an overhaul of the economy.