• Monetary Metals
    07/28/2014 - 02:38
    Notice the “icicles” dripping all over the place? They occur at different times of the day. What are they? Each one is a brief but dramatic price drop.

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Argentina Bonds/Currency Tumble As Delegation Snubs Mediation

With 2 days until the 30-day grace period for 'negotiating' the already defaulted upon bonds is over and Argentina is once again dumped from the public markets, the demands for a "continuous mediation" by Judge Griesa appears to have fallen on dear ears. Bloomberg reports that the Argentina delegation will not meet with the mediator today.. and Argentina bonds are tumbling (and CDS soaring). Markets are implying around 45-50% chance of a default being triggered, which, as Jefferies noted last week, seems low. Argentina's black-market peso (blue dollar rate) weakened to 12.75 (just shy of its weakest ever at 13.00) implying a 50% devaluation over the peso.



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"Reprehensible" Lloyds Bank Agrees To $105 Million Wristslap For Manipulating Libor

That will teach them! Having received full credit for for co-operation and suspending some individuals, Lloyds Bank has been fined the staggeringly wrist-slap-like sum of $105 million for the "manipulation, attempted manipulation, and false reporting of Libor." As WSJ reports, the British bank becomes the seventh financial institution to strike a deal with U.S. and U.K. authorities who are conducting a long running probe into allegations of widespread attempts to manipulate Libor. With no less than the head of the Bank of England calling the bank's actions (mainpulating JPY Libor for at least 2 years) "reprehensible," and the CFTC adds individuals bevahior was a "gross breach of trust." Well we are sure after this they will never manipulate another market ever again...



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Near-Record Trulia Shorts Crushed After Zillow Acquires Incomeless Company For $3.5 Billion

What a difference a weekend makes... After offering $2 billion for Trulia last week (and seeing its share soar), Zillow has decided that $3.5 billion worth of its bubblicious paper money-stock is the right price for its real estate marketing and income-less competitor Zillow. Of course, on the back of near-record short interest the stock has exploded higher once again this morning and is now up over 60% from before last week's offer. We suspect the word 'synergy' will be used heavily (and not the word 'layoff') but in the interests of helping our fellow man, we present the combined firm's income statement...



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Spanish Bond Yields Tumble Below 2.5% - Lowest In History

European peripheral bond yields have compressed from "whatever it takes" highs to "whatever..." lows in the last two years as no amount of factual representation of the dismal reality of Europe's non-recovery can affect the centrally-planned virtuous cycle of ECB carry-trade funded idiocy occurring in the bond markets. Theoretically, Draghi's removal of the credit risk/convertibility premium has left these bonds to trade on growth/inflation expectations alone... and at record lows, they don't seem too hopeful. While Spain 10Y dropped below 2.5% (and we could list 20 fundamental factors that flash red), we thought it ironic that as Italy's 10Y drops below 2.7% for the first time in history it is delinquent on $100 billion in services rendered to its private businesses.



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UN Says MH-17 Downing "May Be War Crime"; Russia Responds Photos Of Ukraine Shelling Are Fake

With the start of the new weeks, and with the MH-17 tragedy increasingly more distant and blurred, with no definitive evidence on either presented so far, with a stripped black box revealing nothing, and with the Air Traffic control recordings still in Ukraine secret service hands, the "He said, She said" is about to escalate to a fever pitch.



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RANsquawk - Week Ahead - 28th July 2014



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Frontrunning: July 28

  • The market in one sentence: Buying on Dips Pays Most in Five Years as Stocks Rebound (BBG)
  • Europe subdued, Russia shares tumble on new sanctions (Reuters)
  • Chinese Data Don’t Add Up (WSJ)
  • Argentine Default Drama Nears Critical Stage (WSJ)
  • Global Pressure Mounts on Israel to End Gaza Fighting (BBG)
  • Ukraine troops advance as experts renew attempt to reach crash site (Reuters)
  • Prospects Brighten for Republicans to Reclaim a Senate Majority (WSJ)
  • Europe’s banking union faces legal challenge in Germany (FT)
  • Investors Bet on China's Large Property Developers (WSJ)
  • Hague court orders Russia to pay over $50 billion in Yukos case (Reuters)


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US Equities Flat While China Surges On More Stimulus And Bailout Hopes

There has been little in term of tier 1 data releases to drive the price action so far in the overnight session which means participants focused on the upcoming US related risk events including the Fed, Q2 GDP and July Payrolls. This, combined with WSJ article by Fed’s Fisher who opined that the FOMC should consider tapering the reinvestment of maturing securities and begin shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet (note that Fisher’s opinion piece is written based on a speech he gave on July 16th) meant that USTs came under pressure overnight in Asia and in Europe this morning. There has been little notable equity futures action (for now: the USDJPY algo team gave it a good ramp attempt just before Europe open, and will repeat just around the US open despite Standard Chartered major cut to its USDJPY forecast from 110 to 106 overnight), although we expect that to change since today is the day when Tuesday frontrunning takes place with full force. We expect equities to completely ignore the ongoing deterioration in Ukraine and the imminent release of EU's own sanctions against Russia, as well as what is now shaping up as an Argentina default on July 30.



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Apocalypse Preview: Chinese River Turns Blood-Red

Things in China are getting downright biblical. First it was the floating animal apocalypse: who can forget the 16,000 floating pigs, followed by a thousand dead ducks, culminating with 5 dead black swans. But nothing quite beats the dramatic impact of the inner river of Wenzhou flowing blood red.



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Second US Citizen Infected With Ebola In Liberia, Which Shuts Down Borders To Slow Epidemic

Update, one which many will say has been long overdue: Liberia Shuts Border Crossings to Slow Ebola Spread.

It was a few short hours ago when we reported that as part of the escalating Ebola epidemic in West Africa a US doctor, Kent Brantly had himself succumbed to the deadly virus. Moments ago we found out that a second US doctor from the same aid organization in Liberia, has been infected with Ebola.



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The Chinese vs Japanese Navy Head To Head: An Infographic

Tomorrow is the 100th anniversary of the start of World War I. Perhaps just as importantly, this weekend is also the 120th anniversary of the first Sino-Japanese war: a war between China's Qing dynasty and Meiji Japan. A war which China lost, and which has been a chip on China's shoulder ever since. As Hong Kong's SCMP reports "China's loss of the first Sino-Japanese war has been attributed to a disorganised navy. Although the northern fleet equalled, some say exceeded, the Meiji navy in terms of firepower, it was annihilated because it lacked coordination among its military units." In the context of constant recent flare ups over various contested East China Sea islands, one can see why the anniversary of the war coupled with a sudden spike in nationalistic ambitions of Japan's PM Abe, would be a sensitive issue to China. However, as we can see below, China no longer has an inferiority complex when it comes to its navy compared to that of Japan.



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John Hussman: "Make No Mistake - This Is An Equity Bubble, And A Highly Advanced One"

"Make no mistake – this is an equity bubble, and a highly advanced one. On the most historically reliable measures, it is easily beyond 1972 and 1987, beyond 1929 and 2007, and is now within about 15% of the 2000 extreme. The main difference between the current episode and that of 2000 is that the 2000 bubble was strikingly obvious in technology, whereas the present one is diffused across all sectors in a way that makes valuations for most stocks actually worse than in 2000. The median price/revenue ratio of S&P 500 components is already far above the 2000 level, and the average across S&P 500 components is nearly the same as in 2000. The extent of this bubble is also partially obscured by record high profit margins that make P/E ratios on single-year measures seem less extreme (though the forward operating P/E of the S&P 500 is already beyond its 2007 peak even without accounting for margins)."



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The Italian Government Owes Over $100 Billion To Private Suppliers

Much has been said in the popular press about Italy's surprising economic recovery (which based on recent data is starting to lose steam), as well as its much improved fiscal picture (even if the country's public debt hits record highs quarter after quarter and the bad debt within its banking system just rose by 24% from the prior year, to €169 billion the highest since 1998). Little has been said about just how Italy managed to pull this economic miracle off. The answer: robbing private suppliers to pay Paul, or rather, the public sector. According to Reuters, the Italian state owes some 75 billion euros ($102 billion)to private suppliers, as reported by the Bank of Italy. The unpaid bills have starved companies of cash and triggered layoffs, factory closures and bankruptcies.



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"London Fix" Gold Rigging By Bullion Bank Exposed In Class Action Lawsuit: The Complete Charts

While the allegations in the lawsuit are well-known to frequent (and all other) readers of Zero Hedge, we recommend reading the full filing as it explains in clear English just what the fixing process worked. Perhaps what is more interesting are the abnormalities in the price of gold as highlighted by Derksen, which clearly show the critical role the daily fix has in the manipulation of the price of gold, both in a downward and upward (mostly downward) direction: whichever suits the London Fix member banks.



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Gary Shilling: "Q2 GDP Was Closer To 1% Than To 3%. It Could Even Be A Negative Number"

This week, in the aftermath of the Q1 -2.9% GDP disaster, the biggest "non-recessionary" drop in 67 years which was blamed on harsh weather (because there have never been harsh winters in the past 67 years), we get the first glimpse of what Q2 GDP was in the US economy. It is expected to print just shy of 3%. However, one person disagrees: Gary Shilling believes that not only will Q2 GDP be closer to 1% than to 3%, there is a fairly good chance it could be negative, which of course would mean that the US economy has officially entered a recession.



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