Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."
With BofAML, Goldman, and now JPMorgan all bringing forward their 'liftoff' expectations for rates, US equity and bond markets are starting to quake a little. The Russell 2000 is now back in the red for 2014 and all but Trannies are red for September. The S&P is back to Aug 20 levels as 10Y yields push 15bps higher on the week to 2-month highs over 2.60%. VIX is back over 14, catching up with rates and FX volatility.
There is a connection between modern capital markets and the NFL (and between Central Bankers and Roger Goodell). The connection is solipsism – a pathological egocentrism where reality is defined by an individual’s mental perceptions and constructs. Collective solipsism is what overwhelming Common Knowledge looks like. It’s the annihilation of an individual’s perception of reality in favor of a group perception of reality. The collective solipsism of modern markets is the most crucial game to comprehend.
Damn you debt-reducing austerity-that-is-blamed-for-everything-that-is-wrong-with-Europe's-triple-dip-recessionary-economy-when-it-is-the-corrupt-socialist-incompetent-politicians'-fault. Damn you to hell! Oh wait a minute:
Italy’s government debt rose to a record €2.169 trillion in July from €2.168 trillion in June, the Bank of Italy says in its public-finances supplement.
Spain total govt debt amounted to a record € 1.01 trillion in 2Q, up from € 995.9b in 1Q, Bank of Spain says; 2Q Total Govt Debt Rises to 98.9% of GDP From 97.4% in 1Q
With austerity like this, who needs to spend like a drunken sailor?
President Obama's 4-pronged strategy to 'degrade and destroy' ISIS includes a 'financial attack' (according to the Treasury) as they recognize, as The Daily Signal notes, one major hurdle in the way of the 'strategy' is the brutal organization's control of oil fields in Iraq and Syria; which ISIS uses that oil wealth to help finance its terror operations. Here's how they do it...
In the wake of non-stop propaganda from politicians of both parties, as well as a mainstream media desperate for ratings, the American public is finally terrified enough to support another war in the Middle East. This is an unfortunate development... With just 6% of likely U.S. voters thinking Congress is doing a good or excellent job according to a recent Rasmussen poll, it’s no surprise to see so many of these corrupt clowns falling over one another to appear tough on ISIS, using myriad hyperbolic and Orwellian statements.
"The apparently long-term rupture of Russia's relations with the West offers an opportunity to the Chinese leadership to enhance its already close relationship with the Kremlin and thus turn the global geopolitical balance in its favor - not unlike former US president Richard Nixon and former secretary of state Henry Kissinger who reached out to Chairman Mao Zedong in 1972. The Russians, angry with Washington, are now more amenable to giving China wider access to their energy riches and their advanced military technology. The Western sanctions pushing Russia out of the international financial system are also making Moscow more ready and willing to back the Chinese yuan against the US dollar." - China Daily
While BofAML's Michael Hanson expects Yellen’s overall tone to remain dovish, market perception will be key. The combination of changes to the forward guidance language, upward drift of the dots, and any comments seen as potentially hawkish, could lead to a selloff...
Moments ago, as was widely preannounced, the US Treasury unveiled its latest round of Russian sanctions. While the bigger picture was well-known, here are some of the highlights:
- U.S. SANCTIONS FOCUS ON FINANCIAL, ENERGY, DEFENSE SECTORS
- U.S. TREASURY ADDS SBERBANK TO SANCTIONS LIST,
- U.S. TREASURY SANCTIONS AFFECTS GAZPROM, GAZPROM NEFT, LUKOIL, ROSNEFT, AND SURGUTNEFTGAZ
- U.S. TIGHTENS DEBT FINANCING RESTRICTIONS TO 30 DAYS
And instantly: PUTIN: GOVT DRAFTING PROPOSALS TO RETALIATE AGAINST SANCTIONS
Despite Gallup's poll showing consumer confidence going nowhere this year, and Bloomberg's consumer comfort level for high-income earners collapsing, the government's UMich Consumer Sentiment measure has soared to its highest since last July's exuberance (at 84.6). Take your pick which data you trust...
It appears the upwards revisions for retail sales and not missing expectations for the headline data is the good news that is bad news for markets. With just a few days until the FOMC, it seems market perceptions of potential fed hawkishness (no good excuses recently not to be) is weighing on bonds and stocks. Treasury yields are accelerating higher (10Y above 2.60% for first time since July) tracking oddly perfectly with USDJPY and stocks, having entirely decoupled from JPY, are tanking on the rising rates/Fed hawkishness concerns. Of course, it's Friday so anything goes before we close.
File this under Devil's Advocate: what if the easy money in the stock market is no longer the "guaranteed" Bull melt-up but the Bearish bet on a sudden air pocket? Just as a thought experiment, put yourself in the shoes of the money managers who have the leverage to move the markets.
Retail Sales rose 0.6% in August - precisely as expected - with July revised from 0.0% to +0.3% but Ex-Autos the +0.3% growth, which matched the revised July number, was the slowest since January's "harsh weather" impact. The 'control group' (ex food, auto dealers, and building materials) missed expectations at +0.4% vs +0.5% exp slipping to its slowest growth in 3 months. Under the surface it appears the gains in sales are driven mostly by a 1.5% rise in auto sales - as more subprime credit is loaded onto the US consumer.