What If The Debt Ceiling Turns Ugly: How To Trade A Fall Spike In Volatility

"We think volatility is unlikely to sustain these extreme lows in the fall and like selling Oct VIX puts as (i) seasonal patterns suggest the VIX troughs in Jul and peaks in Sep/Oct, (ii) the VIX has “settled” below 12 in only two of the past 27 Octobers, and (iii) fundamentally, the threat of debt ceiling brinkmanship in Sep/Oct, which has already spooked the T-bill market, should help support equity volatility."

There Is Only One Empire: Finance

As for hegemony and empire - be careful what you wish for. Life outside the financial bubble is much more contingent and risky than life inside the bubbl - until it pops.

When Will The ECB Run Out Of German Bunds To Buy: Here Is The Math

If the ECB were to reduce the pace of QE to €40bn per month starting in January, it should not run out of German government bonds to purchase until early 2019. On the other hand, if it keeps the current pace of QE, it will run out of paper in late 2018, and even with a downward revised €40bn monthly total, the ECB will have almost no German bonds left to buy in 2019.

The Elites Are Privately Warning About A Crash

"...demand for secure vaulting space in major financial centers like London and Frankfurt is soaring. There are plenty of bank safe deposit boxes in those cities, but investors are insisting on non-bank vaults because investors understand that the banks cannot be trusted in a panic"

When Do We Know These Are Delusional Markets

Signs of complacency and disconnect from fundamentals abound. So to sanity check, it may still be helpful to periodically remind ourselves of a few recent ones. Here, in no particular order, are seven of the most glaring signs.

Bonds Battered Ahead Of Fed - 30Y Yield Back Above 2.90%

In its ubiquitous manner, traders are selling bonds ahead of tomorrow's 'nothingburger' from The Fed. While no rate move is expected, more color on balance sheet normalization is perhaps spooking bonds a bit as the long-end yields are up 7bps, back above 2.90%...

Intel Vets Challenge "Russia Hack" Evidence

In a memo to President Trump, a group of former U.S. intelligence officers, including NSA specialists, cite new forensic studies to challenge the claim of the key Jan. 6 'assessment' that Russia 'hacked' Democratic emails last year.

Cryptocurrencies Are Crashing Again

The largest cryptocurrencies are under presure again today - Bitcoin, Ethereum down around 10% - as it seems some anxiety remains ahead of the August 1st scaling decision deadline, chatter about Russian Bitcoin viruses, and a new report from BofA has raised more questions than answers about the future of virtual currencies.