• hedgeless_horseman
    07/11/2014 - 16:58
    No signal lights, bank alarms, stores are being robbed for anything of value. You move to your trunk and get you Bug Out bag and start heading home, the best way you know.

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Everything's Down

Oil, yes; Stocks, yes; USD, yes; Gold, yes; Silver, yes; Copper, yes; and bond yields, yes. Seems like it's time for some USDJPY or VIX rampage...



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Bank Of Japan Prepares To Buy Nikkei-400 ETF To Boost Stocks

It is no secret that unlike other banks who, while directly intervening in the bond market only manipulate equity prices in relative secrecy (usually via HFT-transacting intermediaries such as Citadel), the Bank of Japan has historically had no problem with buying equities outright, traditionally in the form of REITs and equity-tracking ETFs. Which explains why overnight it was revealed that in order to boost the stock market, pardon, economy, the Bank of Japan is preparing to purchase exchange-traded funds based on the JPX-Nikkei Index 400 as an "option to boost the impact of unprecedented easing," according to people familiar with BOJ discussions.



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Portugal's Largest Bank Misses Bond Payment; Bonds Collapse

Brussels, we have a problem. As we warned 6 weeks ago, Espirito Santo International SA - is in a "serious financial condition" according to a central bank driven external audit by KPMG identified "irregularities in its accounts." Sure enough, the 'ponzi-like' maneuvers have left the bank unable to pay its bonds as Bloomberg reports bonds plunged to record lows after a parent company delayed payments on short-term notes. More importantly, given the divisively dependent nature of the domestic sovereign bond market (and hence the health of the EU) and its banking system, it is noteworthy that Portuguese bond risk has surged to 4 month highs with the biggest 2-day spike in a year. As one analyst noted, “The bigger question is whether the government will have to get involved,” leaving the EU taxpayer on the hook once again (for fear of M.A.D. threats) as most critically, it "will have to step in to prevent systemic repercussions?"



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Obama, Meet Horsehead: Caption Contest

While Obama certainly enjoyed his game of pool with Colorado governor Hickenlooper, there were no immediate press reports confirming or denying whether Obama had been appropriately "choomed" in the marijuana-friendly city. Here, however, things got a little strange.



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Second US Spy Busted In Germany In One Week

It just hasn't been a good week for the CIA. A year after Edward Snowden revealed that the US was bugging Angela Merkel's cell phone, first one then, moments ago, Suddeutsche Zeitung revealed that a second "spy case" involving the US (read CIA) have been revealed. According to SZ, an unidentified man working in military-related area likely to be questioned today over suspicion of spying for a U.S. intelligence service in Germany. The home and office of the suspect were being searched in Berlin area.  SZ adds that the case is more serious than unrelated allegations against double agent at BND Federal Intelligence Service that emerged last week. In the meantime, the US ambassador to Germany went to the foreign ministry for a "talk" - perhaps it is to remind the local just how extensive Angela Merkel's DDR file is, and just what would be revealed about her proximity to the Kremlin if  push came to shove.



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Frontrunning: July 9

  • Xi Says China Conflict With U.S. Would Be Disaster (BBG)
  • Short selling drops to lowest level since Lehman (FT)
  • Scoping the new subprime as watchdogs cry 'bubble' (Reuters)
  • Carlos Slim to break up América Móvil empire (FT)
  • Jury Acquits Rengan Rajaratnam in Insider-Trading Case (WSJ)
  • Hamas rockets land deep in Israel as it bombards Gaza Strip (Reuters)
  • Hong Kong Buyers Queue for New Homes After Prices Plunge (BBG)
  • Rebel Stronghold in Ukraine Braces for Its Showdown (WSJ)
  • Tiny Houses Big With U.S. Owners Seeking Economic Freedom (BBG)
  • Chinese Cash-Bearing Buyers Drive U.S. Foreign Sales Jump (BBG)


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Futures Flat Following Turbulent Asian Session, FOMC Minutes Loom

While the situation between Israel and Gaza continues to escalate, pulling the markets' attention away from the recent developments in Iraq (as for the Ukraine civil war, forget it), the big news overnight came out of Chine which reported another contraction in consumer prices, which both declined to 2.3% and missed expectations of a 2.4% print (down from 2.5%). Producer Prices had another negative print, the 28th in a row, and have remained negative since 2012. This led to the Hang Seng Index falling at the fastest rate since late June to erase all YTD gains. However, as has now become the norm, macro news hardly impacted US equity futures, which are driven exclusively by the Yen carry trade, which unlike yesterday's pounding, has traded rangebound between 101.6-101.7 keeping US equity futures just barely in the green. We expect the momentum ignition algo to kick in at some point, for absolute no fundamental reason beside the NY Fed trading desk issuing a green light, sending the USDJPY surging, taking the Spoos with them, and helping stocks forget all about the weak Asian session.



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Wall Street Joins U.S. Intelligence Cronies To Form Fascist "Cyber War Council"

Want to hear the worst idea in the history of horrible ideas? How about we take the industry responsible for destroying the U.S. economy and wrecking the lives of tens of millions of people, and then allow it to create a “government-industry cyber war council.” It appears that trillions in taxpayer bailouts simply wasn’t enough for Wall Street. Noting that it can seemingly get whatever it wants whenever it wants, the industry is now positioning itself to overtly control U.S. “cyber” policy. What could go wrong?



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Is The Fed Going To Attempt A Controlled Collapse?

As most Fed watchers know, last week was interesting because Janet Yellen, speaking at IMF came out and said something quite surprising. In a nutshell, she said “It’s not the Fed’s job to pop bubbles”. While many market participants immediately took this to mean, “To the moon, Alice!” and started buying equities hand over fist, there’s another possible explanation for Mrs. Yellen’s proclamation of unwillingness: The Fed could be preparing to do exactly what it said it wouldn’t. Bringing forward the next leg of the cycle, may well be on the Fed’s agenda.



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The Difference Between A Good And A Bad Trader: What Brain Imaging Reveals

The distinction between the world's only two types of traders (good vs bad) has been a very vague one. Until now. According to a new study by researchers at Caltech and Virginia Tech that looked at the brain activity and behavior of people trading in experimental markets where price bubbles formed, an early warning signal tips off smart traders when to get out even as the "dumb" ones keep ploughing in and chasing the momentum wave. In such markets, where price far outpaces actual value, it appears that wise traders receive an early warning signal from their brains—a warning that makes them feel uncomfortable and urges them to sell, sell, sell.



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How To Fight The Ex-Im Bank

Here’s a radical suggestion to help counter to the pro-crony forces: be upfront about the true sinister nature of organizations like the Ex-Im Bank. Let’s call a spade a spade, and finally describe the Ex-Im Bank what it truly is: fascism. Such a word comes off as a boogey man term used to rile up emotions. But in the battle of ideas, sophistry always comes up short. Just as the shortest distance between two points is a straight line, precise words are better than vague words when it comes to making a point.



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Marc Faber: Stocks Could Crash 30% Because "Obama's A Very Poor President"

"There is a colossal bubble in all asset prices and eventually it will burst," is the subtle recurring message from The Gloom, Boom, & Doom Report's Marc Faber, warnings that "maybe has begun to burst already." While Faber admits he has called for such a correction previously, he notes that the difference now is that "valuations are so much higher; and contrary to what the mainstream economists believe, I don't believe the global economy is strengthening; in fact I believe it is weakening." Furthermore, while "you never know what will trigger for a bull market or bear market is until after the fact," Faber offers 3 factors (aside from the Fed) that could trigger a 30% crash or more... beginning with "a) In The White House we have a very poor President - which will lead to political issues domestically in the US," which are not priced in.



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Guest Post: GUNS: The Good, The Bad, And The Ugly

Gun ownership and gun control are very controversial topics. If more people own guns then will there be more violence and more crime? If everyone is allowed to own guns then will there be negative consequences? Both of these questions are debateable and each of them has its proponents and opponents.  In this article we’ll take a look at some interesting gun statistics from an objective viewpoint. The point is not to argue for or against gun ownership and or gun control. With that said, let’s look at the good, the bad, and the ugly gun statistics.



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125 Years Ago... Or Today?

Ripped from the pages of the Wall Street Journal in July 1889 - it's never different this time...



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Doug Casey: "America Has Ceased to Exist"

"America is a marvelous idea, a unique idea, fantastic idea. I’m extremely pro-American. But America has ceased to exist,” says Doug Casey in this fascinating interview with Reason TV’s Nick Gillespie. Casey warns of the political, social, and economic challenges the US must conquer as well as lessons we can learn from failed states.



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