• Tim Knight from...
    09/29/2014 - 19:50
    Which brings us to Clinkle, which is a firm founded by a 22 year old with no business successes behind him (which at least Color.com's founder could claim, as he sold his firm to Apple for...

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Ukraine PM Cries "Russia Wants Us To Freeze" As Locals Prepare For A Long, Cold Winter

We would like to be able to commiserate with Ukraine's US-muppet regime, we really would, but when Ukraine's PM Argeny Yatseniuk, or Yats as he is known to Victoria Nuland, almost cried in an interview with Reuters yesterday when he pleaded that "[Russia] wants us to freeze... This is the aim and this is another trump card in Russian hands.... So, except military offense, except military operation against Ukraine, they have another trump card, which is energy". we have just two things to say to him: i) he is absolutely correct, about Russia having the trump card that is - something obvious to everyone with half a brain from the start of the conflict, and ii) perhaps Ukraine should finally pay Gazprom not only for the gas they would like to use in the future, but also the gas they have already used and payment for which is overdue and which the IMF, i.e., the US taxpayer, gave Ukraine explicit money to pay for and instead was embezzled by the people in power.



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John Kerry Explains What America Is (And Is Not) Doing To Defeat "Odious" ISIS

Confused as to the USA's strategy to defeat ISIS? Have no fear, Secretary of State John Kerry has penned an Op-Ed primer for the man in the street to comprehend why it is necessary for America to confront this "profound and unique threat to the entire world." As Kerry begins, "let's be clear about we're doing — and what we’re not doing..."



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Public Pension Funds Face $2 Trillion Shortfall, Moodys Warns

"Despite the robust investment returns since 2004, annual growth in unfunded pension liabilities has outstripped these returns," Moody's warns in its latest report on the state of public pension systems. As Bloomberg reports, the 25 biggest systems by assets averaged a 7.45% return from 2004 to 2013, but liabilities tripled over the same period leaving them facing a $2 trillion shortfall as investment returns can’t keep up with ballooning obligations. The top 25 funds account for 40% of the entire US public pension system with Illinois, Kentucky, Connecticut, and Louisiana at the top of the 'most underfunded' list.



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3 Things Worth Thinking About

Everyone's a genius in a Fed-induced rally. But what next...



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Meet "Dan" Ivascyn: PIMCO's Gross Likely Successor

Having held positions at PIMCO since 1998, Deputy Chief Investment Officer Daniel "Dan" Ivascyn is said to be the likley successor to Bill Gross, according to Bloomberg.



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RANsquawk - Weekly Wrap - 26th September 2014



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PIMCO: Here's What It Owns

PIMCO is big. Scratch that, it's massive: after all it holds over $2 trillion in global securities, mostly bond-related. It is so big, in fact, it takes two pages just to list the number of funds that comprise it, let alone the securities that these funds actually own. Which is a problem when trying to estimate the impact of what a possible asset-shift, if not outright liqudation of some/all of PIMCO's holdings would have.  Yet one has to start somewhere, and the somewhere probably should be with the list of the TRF's biggest holdings as a % of NAV. Here it is.



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Bill Gross Quits PIMCO, Which He Co-Founded, Joining Janus

After co-founding PIMCO in 1971, Bill Gross has called it quits...

*WILLIAM H. GROSS JOINS JANUS CAPITAL
*JANUS:GROSS TO START MANAGING FUND,RELATED STRATEGIES OCT.6,'14

“I look forward to returning my full focus to the fixed income markets and investing, giving up many of the complexities that go with managing a large, complicated organization,” said Mr. Gross. Full Bill Gross, Dick Weil statements...



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"You Can't Fire Me, I Quit" - PIMCO Was Preparing To Fire Gross

With more than $65 billion pulled from PIMCO's funds since May 2013, Bill Gross' firm had been struggling amid spotty performance and it seems, according to The Wall Street Journal, PIMCO (not Allianz) was set to fire the 70-year old bond king this weekend. It seems clear that Mr. Gross move was pre-emptive as sources cite his "increasingly erratic behavior" and ultimatums as factors in the move. Assumptions about Mohamed El-Erian returning to run the company have been denied. Some have estimated PIMCO could see a further 10-30% in fund outflows on the back of Mr. Gross' departure.



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UMich Consumer Confidence Holds Near 7-Year Highs

Confirming the preliminary print, UMich confidence for September's final priont was 84.6 (a small miss from expectations of 84.8). This is the highest since July 2013 and 2nd highest sicne August 2007. Once again, current conditions fell but the hope-strewn "outlook" rose surged. The spread between The Conference Board's exuberant confidence and UMich continues to widen...



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The Bill Gross Effect: German Stocks, European Bonds, & US Credit Markets Are Plunging

Black Swan? Having seen liquidations of a relatively small fund yesterday send the NASDAQ down 2% and credit reeling, world bond and stock markets are reacting aggressively to Bill Gross' move from PIMCO. German stocks (PIMCO's parent Allianz is the 7th largest stock in DAX) are tumbling, European peripheral bond spreads are pushing wider (major holdings of PIMCO) and US credit markets are getting smashed (PIMCO is a major player in CDS markets and obviously a huge holder of US corporate debt) and concerns spread of redemptions triggering the kind of liquidity suck out we described yesterday.



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Final Q2 GDP Surges 4.6% Thanks To Profit Definition Change; Personal Consumption Weaker Than Expected

The good news in the just released final Q2 GDP estimate soared by 4.6%, just as Wall Street expected, which was the biggest quarterly jump since 2011 Q4 2011, driven by gains in business spending, where mandatory forced Obamacare outlays led to a $17.5 billion chained-dollars increase in Healthcare spending to $1815.9 billion. Also helping were corporate profits which rose 8.4% in Q2, the most since Q3 2010, once again courtesy of adjustment in definitions (recall the IVA vs CCAdj change we discussed previously). 



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Was This The Selloff Catalyst: $10+ Billion BlueCrest Capital Unwinding Positions, Fires PMs

Yesterday's plunge in stocks (and credit markets) was pinned on several catalysts from Russia to Fed speak, but the 'liquidations' explanation appeared tomake most sense and now we have a candidate for the culprit. As The Wall Street Journal reports, $10.6 billion BlueCrest Capital Management LLP, one of Europe's largest hedge-fund firms (and best known for its credit market expertise), laid off several stock traders in the U.S. Thursday and began liquidating their investments, according to people familiar with the matter, not long after it aggressively expanded into equities. When one fund's liquidation of part of their portfolio can drop the Nasdaq by 2%, it should be clear to everyone (including Janet and here friends at The Eccles Building) that the stock market 'stability' is anything but "contained."



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"Major Risk Should The Market Drop": BofA On Fresh Record Low In NYSE Investor "Net Worth"

"Risk: NEW LOW for Net free credit at -$183b is major risk should the market drop: Net free credit is free credit balances in cash and margin accounts net of the debit balance in margin accounts. Net free credit dropped to -$183b and moved to a new low below the prior record of -$178b in February. This measure of cash to meet margin calls remains at an extreme low or negative reading below the February 2000 low of $-129b. The risk is if the market drops and triggers margin calls, investors do not have cash and would be forced to sell stocks or get cash from other sources to meet the margin calls. This would exacerbate an equity market sell-off." - BofA



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Frontrunning: September 26

  • Mystery Man Who Moves Japanese Markets Made More Than 1 Million Trades  (BBG)
  • Draghi’s Trillion-Euro Pump Finds Blockage in Spain: Euro Credit (BBG)
  • Apple plays defense on iPhone 6 bending, software concerns (Reuters)
  • U.S. to Shield Military From High-Interest Debt (WSJ)
  • U.S. Outgunned by Extremists on Social Media Battlefield (BBG)
  • Yen Weakens on Pension Fund Reform; Aussie Drops to 7-Month Low (BBG)
  • Secretive Russian oil giant has no fear of sanctions (Reuters)
  • Ride-Sharing Services Face Legal Threat From San Francisco, Los Angeles (WSJ)
  • Putin’s Sell-Treasuries-for-BRICS Bonds Plan Has Limits (BBG)


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