• Monetary Metals
    01/28/2015 - 00:28
    It’s terrifying how fast the whole Swiss yield curve sank under the waterline of zero. Now even the 15-year bond has negative interest. The franc has reached the end.

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Stock Market Liquidity Is The Lowest Ever For An FOMC Day

One way or another this is going to get wild... As Nanex exposes, liquidity in the S&P 500 e-mini futures contract (the most liquid equity trading vehicle) is the lowest it has ever been on an FOMC Day...



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Markets Tumble As FOMC 'Upgrades' Economy & Jobs In Hawkish Statement

The 4 key phrases from today's FOMC Statement are:

"Strong Jobs Gains" instead of "Solid Job Gains", and "Considerable time" sentence dropped entirely
"Solid Pace" instead of "Moderate Pace" For Economy, and added "Inflation is anticipated to decline further in the near term" as new language

And voila, a hawkish policy statement... sending stocks, crude, and bond yields plunging on the news.



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Unanimous Fed Remains "Patient" On Target To Normalize Rates, Expects Lower Inflation - Full Statement Redline

With all eyes firmly focused on the words "patient" on rate hikes, "considerable" period of lower rates, and "transitory" oil-driven deflation, The FOMC did not disappoint

  • *FED REPEATS IT CAN BE PATIENT IN STARTING TO RAISE RATES, ECONOMY HAS BEEN  `EXPANDING AT A SOLID PACE'
  • *FED CITES `STRONG JOB GAINS' AND LOWER UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
  • *FED SAYS INFLATION EXPECTED TO DECLINE FURTHER IN NEAR TERM

So shrugging off the global tumult, The Fed appears set to raise rates no matter what to remove themselves from the corner they are stuck in, wary of what they can do when the next 'event' hits home.

Pre-FOMC: S&P Futs 2024.50, Gold $1286, 10Y 1.778%, EURUSD 1.1339, Dec15 ED 99.285. Full redline below.



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US Inflation Expectations Hit Post-Lehman Lows Ahead Of FOMC

In what appears perfect timing, US inflation expectations (as measure by the market) have plunged to post-Lehman plunge lows - falling further even after The ECB unleashed Q€ last week... we are sure The Fed will be 'patient' and dismiss this as a good dis-inflationary trend that is merely 'transitory' but isn't it ironic...



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"Patient" Fed's Other Problem: A Third Of Traders Today Have Never Witnessed A Rate Hike

2014 was "relatively easier," as the pre-determined pace of tapering had The Fed on auto-pilot last year. However, as WSJ's Jon Hilsenrath warns, Janet Yellen ’s job is about to get harder. Hinting that The FOMC is likely to remain "patient" in deciding when to start raising short-term interest rates later this year (and markets have started to price in lower for longer-er following recent macro weakness domestically and abroad). Juxtaposed against a mixed picture of the economy is concerns of being boxed in at ZIRP should another economic downturn arrive. However, as III Associates notes, it is the communications challenge for The Fed that is most problematic, "it has been nine years since the last rate hike, and I’d estimate about a third of those working on trading floors have never witnessed one."



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Bond Market Not Seeing Any Upcoming Rate Hikes After A Blistering 2 Year Auction

If anyone is seeing a rate hike announcement on the imminent horizon, it sure isn't the exuberant buyers of today's 2 Year auction.



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Zimbabwe's Gold Mines On Verge Of Collapse Due To Low Bullion Prices

To say that Zimbabwe has not had much luck in its recent, post Robert Mugabe-goes-berserk, history with fiat money is putting it lightly. But did you know that with gold trading at prevailing depressed prices, driven over the past several years not by physical demand but by paper supply, Zimbabwe is about to have another "money" moment, only this time not with fiat but with real money. The reason: the same one why every so often we show the gold cost curve: because some miners simply can not continue operating if the "market" price of gold, with or without central bank and BIS intervention, is below their blended cost. Unfortunately for the south African country, the cost curve of the entire Zimbabwe gold mining industry is on the wrong side of the gold price line.



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The History Of Global Crises Through The Eyes Of The US Dollar

Which is better: a stronger dollar or a weaker dollar? You decide...



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Now We 'Know' Greek Banks Are Really In Trouble

"When it gets serious, you have to lie," were the infamous words of one J-C Juncker and today - following the 40-50% collapse in Greek Bank equity capital this week,ECB's Bank Supervision boss Nouy has come out to calm everything down:

*NOUY SAYS GREEK BANKS ARE 'PRETTY STRONG',  HAVE STRENGTHENED THEIR BALANCE SHEETS
*ECB'S NOUY SAYS GREEK BANKS WILL SURVIVE CURRENT CRISIS

Which, translated for the elites means, "sell-sell-sell." And then - just to add even more pressure, S&P puts Greece on Watch Negative.



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QE Is Not A Solution: "It's A Marker Of All That Is Wrong"

This time the global slowdown has fewer places to hide. Perhaps we can “thank” monetary policy for that, highlighting deficiency wherever “extraordinary” policies have been proclaimed as highly “necessary.” In other words, the very fact that a central bank has “had” to institute something as disruptive as QE is not much of a solution but rather a marker of everything wrong. Nowhere is this reality more evident than in the evolution of at least credit market thinking on the subject, viewing the decrepit state of the actual economy now more appropriately; moving in the “wrong” direction. There is, again, perhaps something to that sharp bearish turn in December.



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Russia May Condemn "Annexation" Of East Germany

Who says the Russians, increasingly isolated by the west (Europe and the US threatened over the past 24 hours to escalate sanctions yet again) and increasingly more welcome by China, India and the rest of the non-western world, don't have a sense of humor? Days after the speaker of the Russian Duma, Sergei Naryshkin, faced scathing criticism of Russia's annexation of Crimean peninsula when he spoke at the Parliament Assembly of Europe, he has come up with a novel suggestion when he asked a committee to study a proposal to condemn the reunification of Germany in 1990.



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S&P Gives Up AAPL-Bounce Gains, Dow Negative Post-QE3

But they said it was over...



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Crude Supplies Surge To Highest Since At Least 1982

Remember how exuberant yesterday's small gains in Crude Oil were perceived to be? Yeah - that's all over, with WTI back near a $44 handle - following a large 12.7 million barrel inventory build according to API (EIA reports the 'main event' at 1030ET today - which Saxo Bank warns "a bigger-than-expected build would likely push the mkt over the cliff edge.") Additional weakness overnight is also likely due to Goldman's shift to a 'sell' for the next 3 months.



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Greek Credit Risk Spikes, Default Probability Tops 70%

Greek default risk has surged in recent days and today as it becomes clear what Syriza expects from Europe, short-term CDS are at post-crisis highs with 5Y CDS implying a 76% probability of default (based on standard recovery assumptions - which may be a little high in this case). Given the domestic bank dominance in the buying of domestic government debt, Greek banks are getting hammered as everyone's favorite hedge fund trade is an utter bloodbath. Greek stocks overall are down and GGBs are tumbling once again - back at 16 month lows (given back all the ECBQE hope bounce). Perhaps not surprising moves, given new Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis reality-exposing comments yesterday, "the problem with the bailout is that it wasn’t really a bailout... it was an extend and pretend, it was a vicious cycle, a debt-deflationary trap, which destroyed our social economy."



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US-Ally Jordan To Breach Western Protocol, Will Exchange Hostages With ISIS

Several days after a Japanese hostage held by the Islamic State was executed, with a second Japanese hostage, freelance journalist Kenji Goto likely awaiting the same fate unless the Jordan releases an ISIS prisoner, the middle eastern US-ally is about to dramatically breach western protocol of not negotiating with terrorists, and as the newswires reported earlier, is prepared to exchange said imprisoned ISIS would-be suicide bomber, however not for the Japanese captive of ISIS but for one of its own pilots held by the Islamic militants.



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