• Tim Knight from...
    11/21/2014 - 21:06
    As you can see by this view of the NQ, this massively bullish news has not, as of yet, represented any kind of sea-change in the markets. Before the day was even out (again, in some, not all markets...
  • lemetropole
    11/21/2014 - 21:16
        November 21 - Gold $1197.50 up $6.80 – Silver $16.40 up 26 cents Bill Cosby And GATA  

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Hilsenrath Confirms Hawkish Fed Focused Domestically, Rate Hikes Coming

Instead of reading between the lines of the 28 page FOMC minutes, we have The Wall Street Journal's Jon Hilsenrath to explain to us what we should believe. His message is not dovish. Despite tumult in financial markets, weak economic conditions abroad, and risks that low inflation could drift lower, Hilsenrath notes that the Fed forged ahead with a decision to end the central bank’s bond-buying program because the domestic economy and labor market appeared to be on course for further improvement. Furthermore, officials added a new twist: a debate about whether they should add new information in their official policy statement on how quickly rates will rise once increases commence.



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Fed Hints It Won't Bail Out Stocks Next Time

"... members considered the advantages and disadvantages of adding language to the statement to acknowledge recent developments in financial markets. On the one hand, including a reference would show that the Committee was monitoring financial developments while also providing an opportunity to note that financial conditions remained highly supportive of growth. On the other hand, including a reference risked the possibility of suggesting greater concern on the part of the Committee than was actually the case, perhaps leading to the misimpression that monetary policy was likely to respond to increases in volatility."



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Summing Up The FOMC Minutes In 2 Words: Inflation Rate

The Fed minutes can be boiled down to 3 two-word factors: "inflation rate", "economic policy", and "market conditions" - all of which overshadow words like "growth" and "jobs" and "employment"



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FOMC Minutes Show Deflation-Wary Fed Not Worried About Global Growth

Having done nothing but rally since the FOMC statement on 10/29 that ended QE, the minutes provide little additional info aside from to note that some participants wanted to drop "considerable time":

  • *MANY FED OFFICIALS SAW LIMITED IMPACT FROM GLOBAL SLOWDOWN
  • *FED OFFICIALS SAW NEED TO WATCH FOR INFLATION EXPECTATIONS DROP
  • *FOMC OPTED NOT TO MENTION FINANCIAL MARKET TURMOIL AFTER DEBATE

If they don't mention, it never happened



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Stunning Photos Of Record Snow Covering Upstate New York: 100 Total Inches Of Snow Expected

As previously reported, the anticipated Polar Vortex 2.0 has struck, pushing temperatures in all 50 states to below freezing, while heavy snow prompted a state of emergency in western New York and contributed to the deaths of four people. According to Reuters, it was the coldest November morning across the country since 1976, according to Weather Bell Analytics, a meteorologist consulting firm. It remains to be seen how many GDP percentage points were wiped out as a result, unless of course, this time it will be different from last winter. But it was the situation in upstate New York, especially around Bufallo and parts of Erie County, where things got most dire and where 60 inches (1.5 m) of snow accumulated, with more falling, said Steven Welch of the National Weather Service near Buffalo. It gets worse: forecasters are calling for more snow on Thursday, as much as three feet more, for a total of up to 100 inches over four days - a year's worth for the region!



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The Biggest Myth About Investing In Europe

The BTFDippier of the fast money is already rotating into a long-Europe mode: their entire thesis is that sooner or later the whales will have no choice but to follow the momentum chasers right back into Europe, because where else are they going to go: in the "safety" of the S&P's 19x GAAP P/E?  In theory this would be a great strategy, if only in a world in which nobody actually does any fundamental homework and the only thing that matters is frontrunning the next great sucker. In practice, it is fatally wrong. As the following observation from hedge fund Lyxor shows, while CTA and momentum strats have indeed bailed on Europe in recent months, the so-called smart money, the "global macro" funds never left.



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America Throws Up Over Obama's Immigration Executive Action Even Before It Is Announced

Ahead of President Obama's address to the nation tomorrow to dictate his executive orders on immigration, potentially allowing millions of undocumented immigrants to stay legally in the US, a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds nearly half of Americans disapprove of his plan. Only a dismal 38% support the President taking this executive action... which makes us wonder if there has ever been so much revulsion at the policies of a standing President. It's good to be king.



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The Only Thing More Bullish Than Inflation Is....

Deflation. And not just deflation, but a deflationary bust! At least, such is the goalseeked logic of Cornerstone Marco, which has released a bullish (no really) note titled the Coming Deflationary Boom in the U.S.



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Gold & Silver Surge, Recover Swiss Gold Poll Losses As EURCHF Hits Lows

It appears the FX and Precious Metals markets have as much faith in the pre-Swiss Gold Referendum polls as the Scots did before their referendum. The clearly leaked results sparked considerable weakness in gold and silver (and EURCHF surge), but once the data was released, markets began to creep back - perhaps questioning the plausibility of such a big swing in such a short amount of time. This surge was also helped by some unusually frank comments on Russian gold buying from the Russian Central Bank.  Gold, Silver, and EURCHF have all recovered the moves with the latter pressing towads cycle lows...



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The Broken Market's Latest Creation: An Algo To Offset The Impact Of Other Algos

 Trader's Magazine reports that "as part of KCG's continued push into the institutional trading side of the business"... which is a euphemism for please trade with us: we won't blow up again, we promise... "the well-regarded and historically focused market-maker [ZH: if you keep repeating that it magically comes true, just ask world-renowned trader Dennis Gartman] has built its first brand new algorithmic trading tool - Catch."  What does the algo known as Catch do? Well, supposedly it offsets the impact of all other algos who have crushed market liquidity.



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New International Gang Of Thieves Make Somali Pirates Look Like Amateurs

This past month, a real-life guild of thieves was formed. With 51 governments pledging their support to each other for the protection of their ignoble craft of theft. And another 30 pledging to join by 2018.



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President Obama To Dictate Immigration Executive Order In Vegas On Friday

While what normally happens in Vegas, stays in Vegas; President Obama's decision to dictate his Immigration Executive Order from sin city will likely have repurcussions across the entire nation. As NY Times reports, Obama is preparing to use his executive authority to provide work permits for up to five million people who are in the US illegally, and to shield them from deportation. But these new arrivals will not receive one key benefit: government subsidies for health care available under Obamacare. The immigrants would also be unlikely to receive benefits like food stamps, Medicaid coverage or other need-based federal programs offered to citizens and to some legal residents. "The costs of extending these programs to millions of low-wage illegal immigrants would be enormous," said Senator Jeff Sessions "this is yet another danger posed to Americans by the president’s unconstitutional action."



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Commodities Are Crumbling - Gold Fixing, Swiss Gold Poll, Or Another Fed Minutes Leak?

Because nothing says unrigged like a collapse across the commodity complex (gold, silver, copper, and crude) as London's Gold Fixing Company auction takes place... Or did the Fed leak its minutes like it did in 2013? It appears the real reason is the early release of Swiss Gold Referendum poll data that shows a drop from 44% "Yes" to 38% "Yes".



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"Helpful" Britain Tweets "How To Spot A Russian Tank In Ukraine"

In case you are wondering through Ukraine and come across a tank, the British embassy in Kiev has issued a handy pocket guide to indentifying whether it is Russian (bad guys) or Ukrainian (good guys)...



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Algos - We Have A Problem

For 'years' the US stock market has traded on 'fun-durr-mentals' - tracking USDJPY tick for tick day in day out as algos tickle leveraged currency trades to ignote momentum in US equities and guarantee 'proof' in the recovery. The correlation, however, between USDJPY and stocks (US and Japanese) has begun to deteriorate rapidly since Kuroda unleased Godzilla QQE... and today it is very clear...



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