Because it's all about fundamentals...
Having almost touched $59 overnight, WTI crude has collapsed back to a $55 handle, smashing the Ruble lower and high-yield credit spreads higher. US financial stocks are starting to weaken back towards the credit market's warnings as counterparty risk concerns spread...
Slowing the rebalancing and creating further downside risk is a very strong consensus view that this pull back is temporary and that oil prices will quickly rebound as they did in 2009. According to a recent Bloomberg survey, the median WTI forecast for 2016 is $86/bbl (even we forecast it going back to $80/bbl). All of these forecasts are based upon now outdated cost data that is shifting as fast as the price. It is precisely this strong view for a rebound in prices and the behavior it creates, that not only suggests that oil prices can go lower for longer, but also that the new normal is far lower than we thought just one month ago. Instead of optimizing against a lower price environment, many oil producers are trying to position themselves for the rebound in prices
More bloodbathery. Wherever we look today, things are not going well. While we have become used to day after day of Oil Producers' FX collapsing, today we see the tumble in Emerging Market FX rates begin to accelerate in a very Taper-Tantrum-esque manner. While the Ruble at 64 is grabbing headlines, Turkish Lira is utterly collapsing along with Indonesia and India overnight.
Sydney Seige Is Over After Explosions, Shots Fired; 11 Hostages Freed; Gunman & 1 Hostage Dead - Live FeedSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 12/15/2014 - 11:18
BREAKING NEWS: HOSTAGE-TAKER KILLED BY GUNFIRE. SKY NEWS
POLICE STORMING SYDNEY SIEGE CAFE, ABC REPORTS
EXPLOSIONS, SHOOTING AT SYDNEY SIEGE SITE: ABC TELEVISION FOOTAGE
TWO PEOPLE KILLED AS POLICE END SIEGE OF SYDNEY CAFE, CNN SAYS
GUNMAN HAS NOT BEEN SEEN LEAVING SYDNEY SIEGE BUILDING: SKY
SYDNEY SIEGE IS OVER, AUSTRALIAN POLICE SAY VIA TWITTER
For anyone trying to trade today, this post is moot. For everyone else, when less than 1K ES contracts take out not 1, not 2, not 3 but 4 levels of order book depth, then one better pray that Waddell and Reed does not sneeze, and certainly not sell (or, gasp, short) anything in size or else...
Well that escalated quickly... again. While credit markets were not buying the dead-cat-bounce in stocks and oil this morning (Energy HY >1000bps, HYCDX >400bps), financial media was cock-a-hoop... "the bottom is in." Well we have a new bottom. WTI Crude futures have tumbled back to the scene of the manipulative algo crime last night back below $57. European stocks are under pressure and are now once again negative year-to-date and US stocks have given up all the overnight and US opening exuberance gains - now red from Friday.
For the first time on record, HY Energy OAS has broken above 1000bps - signifying dramatic systemic business risk in that sector (despite a modest rebound today in crude prices). The energy sector is entirely frozen out of the credit markets at this point with desk chatter that there is no bid for this distressed debt at all and air-pockets appear everywhere as each new trade reprices the entire sector. The broad high-yield 'yield' and 'spread' markets are now under significant pressure - both pushing to the cycle's worst levels.
One of the very strange non-sequiturs in today's Syndey hostage siege, now approaching its 15th hour, is that the gunman who prepared for a long standoff with authorities somehow forgot to pack the ISIS flag and as reported earlier, has been said to demand it from the outside world. Strange to say the least. But the bigger question remains: who is he? Now, courtesy of a report in Australia's The Age we know. The man who continues to hold more than a dozen people hostage, placing Sydney's CBD into lockdown is no stranger to the NSW police or the judiciary. Self-described cleric, Man Haron Monis, 50, first came to attention of police when he penned poisonous letters to the family of dead Australian soldiers seven years ago. Last year he was charged with being an accessory to the murder of his ex-wife and mother of two.
Thanks to 'entirely sustainable' 5.1% MoM surges in both Motor Vehicle manufacturing (thank you Subprime) and Utilities (thank you Polar Vortex 2.), Industrial Production in November surged 1.3% (against expectations of +0.7%) for the biggest rise since May 2010. For context, November's surge is the 2nd biggest monthly rise since October 1998... sound right? With factory output now above late-2007 pre-recession peak levels, it seems The Fed will find it hard to talk this one down to justify lower-for-longer...
The biggest event of the coming week is surely the FOMC announcement on Wednesday, when as most expect, will see the Fed's language shifting from "considerable time" to "patient." But while "most" also expect this to be the preamble toward Fed hiking rates in mid-2015, some disagree.
Must be the weather, because lower gas prices is "unambiguously good" for everyone. The Empire Fed manufacturing survey collapsed to -3.6 from 10.16 , its lowest since January 2013, missing expectations of a rebound to 12.4 by the most in 4 years. New orders plunged and unfilled orders utterly collapsed from -7.45 to -23.96 or as some would call it, "unambiguously bad." The timing of this US macro data collapse could not be better for The Fed of course, which with the entire world reeling form a demand crunch (see oil) needs an excuse to keep lower-for-longer on the table, and even proceed with QE4 if and when needed.