"If Trump doesn’t directly address the elephant in the room – the accusation that he is a crazy racist – he loses. If he makes a case for the value of American diversity – and does it persuasively – he wins in a landslide. I expect him to do the latter."
Thanks to Obamacare, it is frequently better for a middle class family to get no raise than even a decent sized raise. The wage point varies, but many will say “Dear employer, please don’t pay me more. It will cost me a lot of money”.
The largest U.S. banks got permission from regulators to return profits to investors, but the U.S. banking units of Deutsche Bank and Banco Santander were held back again as the Federal Reserve released the final results of its 2016 "stress tests."
August 15, 2016 will mark the 45th anniversary of President Nixon’s decision to close the gold window. U.S. citizens and the government are now beholden to the consequences of years of accumulated debt and weak productivity growth that have occurred since that day. Now, seven years after the end of the financial crisis and recession, these consequences are in plain sight. The Fed finds themselves crippled under an imprudent zero interest rate policy and unable to raise interest rates due to fear of stoking another crisis.
We realize that fundamental analysis, especially in light of recent events, is dead and buried, but for those few who still keep track, here is a troubling chart showing how fast the S&P's cash flow is sinking relative to its debt load. As Bank of America helpfully points out, the USA is now trading at 13x EV/EBITDA, a 90th percentile since 1995.
As companies evaluate whether to depart the UK for France, they may want to consider scenes such as the following showing relentless local protests, now stretching for months, against the much maligned anti-labor reform.
The horrifying spike in racist attacks, which have come in the wake of Britain’s vote to leave the European Union, has prompted police to call for enhanced sentencing for those convicted of such disorder.
After failing the Federal Reserve's annual stress tests in March 2014, the WSJ reports that Citigroup hired multiple consulting firms, and spent about $180 million on stress tests during the second half of 2014 in order to address regulator's concerns. It turns out that banks are spending tens of billions in order to prepare for stress tests, creating quite a lucrative business for consultants.
The government is publishing this data in black and white. They’re telling anyone who’s willing to listen that Social Security has dug itself into an impossible hole. More importantly, they’re telling us there’s a 0% chance that the government will be able to honor its existing commitments. They’ll either have to radically raise taxes, or simply reduce (or eliminate) the Social Security benefits that they’ve been promising taxpayers for decades.
One strategy that has worked unusually well for the last several years is a simple positioning trade of selling the 10 most overweight stocks and buying the 10 most underweight stocks by active managers. This single trade has yielded over 16ppt of alpha year-to-date
A funny thing has happened below the surface of the markets since late last year. As first The Fed, then The BoJ, and The ECB respectively saw their credibility crushed into a mumbling excuse pool of elite utterances as global bond yields crashed along with global growth and inflation expectations, professional investors have been busily buying crash protection.