• williambanzai7
    01/25/2015 - 14:27
    A Banzai7 salute to the Greeks for signaling the bankster $hitheads of the world (and their Eurocrat enablers) to shove it where the sun don't shine.
  • Sprott Money
    01/26/2015 - 08:30
    Making New Year “predictions” used to be an automatic, beginning-of-the-year exercise, to the point where readers generally expected such pieces from the pundits they follow. However, it is an...

Tyler Durden's picture

Existing Home Sales Drop Year-Over-Year For First Time Since 2010

Despite surges in mortgage applications juxtaposed with notably downbeat commentary from KB Home and Lennar, existing home sales rose modestly in December (+2.4%) but missed expectations for the 2nd month in a row (+3.0%) for a SAAR of 5.04mm sales. Only the Southern region saw sales improve. However, for all of 2014, there were 4.93 million sales, a 3.1% decline from 2013 (5.09 million) - the first drop since 2010. This should be no surprise as NAR finally admits the problem (instead of blaming weather) - “Housing costs – both rents and home prices – continue to outpace wages and are burdensome for potential buyers trying to save for a downpayment while looking for available homes in their price range.” It's the price, stupid!



Tyler Durden's picture

US Manufacturing Growth Slows To 1 Year Low As Shale Collapse Cripples New Order Spending

Who could have seen that coming? It appears that for all the bluster that the US economy could somehow decouple from the rest of the world's demise (when as always it is simply and timing issue - lagged response), America's manufacturing renaissance is dying. Markit's US Manufacturing PMI printed 53.7 in January, missed expectations of 54.0 falling for the 5th month in a row to the lowest in 12 months. While day after day, investors are told that low oil prices are unambiguously good for America, Manufacturing PMI was last lower than this in October 2013 as survey respondents note clients operating in the oil and gas sector have weighed on new order volumes in January.



Tyler Durden's picture

Russia May Be Forced Into Production Cuts Says Deputy PM

The 7-month-old plunge in oil prices will force Moscow to cut its budget for 2015 by 10 percent, perhaps even 15 percent, a senior Russian government official told a panel discussion at the World Economic Forum in Davos Switzerland, adding that Russia may find itself reducing oil production by as much as 1 million barrels per day, but he stressed that such a cut would not be made in coordination with OPEC.



Tyler Durden's picture

Deutsche Bank's Most Cynical Take On Draghi's QE Yet: Buy European Stocks Even Though QE Will "Prevent Improvements"

For the most succinct, and most cynical, take on yesterday's ECB QE announcement we go to Deutsche Bank which 7 years after the grand money printing experiment started, has thrown in the towel on spinning the now annual CTRL-P ritual, and - in a nutshell - says: QE will fail to do anything but boost stocks, so may as well buy stocks.



Tyler Durden's picture

WTI Hits $45 Handle After Treasury Secretary Lew Says "Doesn't Expect US Crude Production To Decline"

Keeping the narrative dream alive, Treasury Secretary Lew told Bloomberg TV this morning that "lower energy prices are good for the US economy" - seemingly missing the huge surge in jobless claims, the lack of clear gains by firms on lower fuel costs, rig count collapsing, and homebuilder concerns in Shale states. But it was his follow up idiocy that sparked weakness:

*LEW SAYS HE DOESN'T EXPECT OIL PRODUCTION IN U.S. TO DECLINE
*LEW SAYS U.S. CRUDE PRODUCERS CAN HANDLE DECLINE IN OIL PRICES

The reaction - WTI broke quickly to a $45 handle on heavy volume. Perhaps Secretary Lew should tell the firms that are laying off 1000s how to do their jobs if he is so sure that "they can handle it."



Tyler Durden's picture

Syriza Leads In 6 Polls; Leader Tsipras Shuns Merkel, Says "Won't Honor Commitments"

With the leads in at least six polls (of between 4% and 10%), Syriza leader Alexis Tsipras has come out swining for the anti-EU vote this morning:

  • *TSIPRAS SAYS ONLY SYRIZA CAN END GREECE'S CATASTROPHIC COURSE
  • *TSIPRAS SAYS WON'T HONOR COMMITMENTS MADE BY PREVIOUS GOVT
  • *TSIPRAS SAYS WILL NEGOTIATE WITH EUROPEAN PEERS NOT WITH MERKEL

For now Greek assets remain bid on the glorious awesomeness of Draghi but we suspect - though The ECB gave themn room to negotiate and Djisselblom mentioned the possibility of 'working' with Greece - that if things go as the polls suggest Monday could see more bloodletting in EURUSD (and bank runs in Greece).



Tyler Durden's picture

UPS Tumbles On Missed Earnings, Blames US Domestic Weakness

We can only imagine how fast the narrative is being re-written as bellwether of "everything is awesome" in America, United Parcel Service missed earnings expectations and lowered guidance and is seeing its shares tumble:

*UPS 4Q PRELIM ADJ. EPS $1.25 , EST. $1.47
*UNITED PARCEL CITES UNDERPERFORMANCE OF U.S. DOMESTIC SEGMENT

Of course, we are sure that with lower fuel prices due to help them 'next' quarter... and Valentine's Day and Easter around the corner, Q1 growth will prove everything is awesome.



Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: January 23

  • Saudi Arabia’s New King Probably Will Not Change Current Oil Policy (BBG)
  • Saudi King’s Death Clouds Already Tense Relationship With U.S. (WSJ)
  • Oil Pares Gains as New Saudi King Says Policies Stable (BBG)
  • Kuroda Says BOJ to Mull Fresh Options in Case of More Easing (BBG)
  • U.S. pulls more staff from Yemen embassy amid deepening crisis (Reuters)
  • Putin Said to Shrink Inner Circle as Hawks Beat Billionaires (BBG)
  • A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (WSJ)


Tyler Durden's picture

European Bloodbath: Freefalling EUR Plummets On Broad Liquidation Puke

Any hedge funds that had an even modestly long EUR position are being FXCMed right now.



Tyler Durden's picture

Euro Crash Continues Sending Stocks Higher, Yields To Record Lows; Crude Stabilizes On New King's Comments

Today's market action is largely a continuation of the QE relief rally, where - at least for the time being - the market bought the rumor for over 2 years and is desperate to show it can aslo buy the news. As a result, the European multiple-expansion based stock ramp has resumed with the Eurostoxx advancing for a 7th day to extend their highest level since Dec. 2007. As we showed yesterday, none of the equity action in Europe is based on fundamentals, but is the result of multiple expansion, with the PE on European equities now approaching 20x, a surge of nearly 70% in the past 2 years. But the real story is not in equities but in bonds where the perfectly expected frontrunning of some €800 billion in European debt issuance over the next year, taking more than 100% of European net supply, has hit new record level.



Tyler Durden's picture

The Saudi Succession: Its Impact On Oil, Markets And Politics

As reported earlier, several hours ago Saudi Arabia announced that its 91-year-old King Abdullah had passed away, in the process setting off what may be a fascinating, and problematic, Saudi succession fight which impacts everything from oil, to markets to geopolitics, especially in the aftermath of the dramatic political coup in neighboring Yemen. As a reminder, it is Saudi Arabia whose insistence on not cutting oil production with the intent of hobbling the US shale industry has led to the splinter of OPEC, and to a Brent price south of $50. Which is why today's event and its implications will be analyzed under a microscope by everyone: from politicians to energy traders. Here, courtesy of Ecstrat's Emad Mostaque, is an initial take at succession, the likely impact on oil, then the Saudi market & currency and finally regional politics.



Tyler Durden's picture

A Billionaire Lectures Serfs In Davos: "America's Lifestyle Expectations Are Far Too High"

Billionaire Jeff Greene - who flew his wife, children and two nannies on a private jet plane to Davos for the week - has some words of wisdom for the average American: "America’s lifestyle expectations are far too high and need to be adjusted so we have less things and a smaller, better existence. We need to reinvent our whole system of life."



Tyler Durden's picture

More Isolation? Russia, China To Build $240 Billion High-Speed Rail Link

The ongoing 'isolation' of Russia took another turn for the un-isolated-er today when, as Bloomberg reports, China will build a 7,000-kilometer (4,350-mile) high-speed rail link from Beijing to Moscow, at a cost of 1.5 trillion yuan ($242 billion), Beijing’s city government said. The rail-link - which will bring travel time between Beijing and Moscow down from 5 days to 30 hours - signals a 10-year partnership between the two nations and follows the dropping of the French company, Alstom, from the project.



Tyler Durden's picture

The US Cannot Afford To Be The World's Police

History proves a government can’t be fiscally responsible and the policeman of the world. All great empires were befallen by the inability of resources to keep up with ambition. From Alexander the Great to Rome to the great British Empire, hegemony doesn’t last forever. The U.S. government guarantees security to over 35 countries and has troops stationed in over 146 countries. Does such an astounding presence – completely unmatched by previous empires – really sound all that sensible?



Tyler Durden's picture

Chinese Stocks Recover From Biggest Plunge In Years As 'Still-Contracting' Manufacturing Industry Improves

Following the biggest crash in Chinese stocks in 8 years on Monday (following regulator's crackdown on margin trading), The Shanghai Composite has now retraced all those losses as China's Manufacturing PMI rises and beats modestly (though remains technically in contraction at 49.8 for the 2nd month). HSBC notes marginal domestic demand improvements but employment and prices continued to deteriorate hinting at a continued manufacturing slowdown (which stocks love - bad news is good news). The problem for the reflexive equity market gamblers is that the higher stocks go, the less likely a broad-based RRR cut is to happen. Along those lines, the CNY Fix was weakened by the most in 10 months today and yesterday the first reverse repo liquidity injection in a year as Chinese year-end liquidity concerns once again move front-and-center...



Do NOT follow this link or you will be banned from the site!