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Why Abenomics Failed: There Was A "Blind Spot From The Outset", Goldman Apologizes

Ever since Abenomics was announced in late 2012, we have explained very clearly that the whole "shock and awe" approach to stimulating the economy by sending inflation into borderline "hyper" mode was doomed to failure. Very serious sellsiders, economists and pundits disagreed and commended Abe on his second attempt at fixing the country by doing more of what has not only failed to work for 30 years, but made the problem worse and worse. Well, nearly two years later, or roughly the usual delay before the rest of the world catches up to this website's "conspiratorial" ramblings, the leader of the very serious economist crew, none other than Goldman Sachs, formally admits that Abenomics was a failure. So what happened with Abenomics, and why did Goldman, initially a fervent supporter and huge fan - and beneficiary because those trillions in fungible BOJ liquidity injections made their way first and foremost into Goldman year end bonuses  - change its tune so dramatically? Here is the answer from Goldman Sachs.



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Mind "The Asian Dollar Short" - Another Ticking Time Bomb Gifted By The Central Banks

Not everything is as it seems. While the PBOC may be taking a stand on monetarism and its character, it has been very curious that the yuan has not fully participated in the dollar turmoil marking so many other “dollar” dependent nations. While the yuan’s appreciation trend may have been altered, that has not led again to the kind of disorder that marked the currency earlier in the year. Maybe that is due, at least in part, to these expectations that the PBOC will eventually relent on its new approach, but we also think that the PBOC is at least looking the other way on some of the “old tricks” that supported the Chinese version of the dollar short.



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Because This Time Is Never Different, In 100 Year Old Cartoons

Any time you feel like all the endless crime, rigging and cronyism on Wall Street and its lobbied puppets in the Capitol is something new, look at these cartoons from about 100 years ago. You will feel better that this time is not different... and much worse that in 100 years absolutely nothing has changed.



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Market Uncertainty Has Never Been Higher

The CBOE's VVIX Index, "an indicator of the expected volatility of the 30-day forward price of the VIX" reached extreme levels this week. While all eyes are firmly focused on the to-ing and fro-ing of VIX (the so-called 'fear' indicator), it is the uncertainty of that fear (or greed) that is exploding as VVIX measures. Simply put, the chance of VIX doubling, or tripling, in the next 30 days (which include the final POMO and Fed 'end of QE' meeting), has never been higher.



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Markets & Ebola: Confusion, Containment, & Complexity

The level of micro-management by the Fed appears to have reached a new shockingly high plateau. Recently prices have been driven more by liquidity, fear, greed, and Fed policy, than by valuation.  It is time that the Fed stops being a source of interference and confusion. There are also two less obvious or less discussed economic reasons why the Obama administration may be urgently focusing more on the Ebola crises.



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Welcome To Arcadia – The California Suburb Where Rich Chinese Stash Cash In McMansions

The surge in foreigners buying up U.S. real estate has been well documented in recent years. Of all this buying, no nation has demonstrated a bigger increase in purchases than China. In fact, it is estimated that 24% of all foreign purchases of domestic real estate this year have come from China, up 72% from last year. In some California communities, 90% of real estate buyers are from China. Yes, 90%. Naturally, many of them are buying multi-million dollar homes in “all cash” transactions. Well it appears that one of those communities is the 57,000 person Los Angeles suburb known as Arcadia. The suburb had a relatively insignificant Asian population of 4% in 1980, but it is now 59%.



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FEMA Conducting Pandemic Drills Amidst Ebola Crisis

Regardless of the origins of the Ebola crisis, whether it be conspiracy or gross incompetence, there are a number of aspects to the entire situation which simply do not add up. While one would not argue that preparedness on the part of the federal government regarding a possible pandemic is a bad thing, its behavior thus far has exuded anything but preparedness. Considering America’s sordid history with national emergency exercises, the ongoing FEMA pandemic exercise cannot help but raise red flags.



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This Wasn't Supposed To Happen

From exuberant escape velocity 'expansion' hopes and dreams in June, to 'slowing' in September, and 'drastic downward revisions' in early October, the Goldman Sachs Global Leading Indicator has had a very troubled recent past (as QE is just 4 POMOs away from coming to an end). But nothing could prepare the avid reader for what happened to the infamous Goldman "swirlogram" this month - an epic, total collapse. As Goldman 'politely' notes, "the October Advanced reading places the global cycle deeper in the ‘Slowdown’ phase, with momentum (barely) positive and declining."



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Jim Chanos: "The Lesson That Shaped My Understanding Of How Fragile The System Is"

"Yes, we did extremely well in 1987... What really scared me in October of 1987 was that after Monday’s crash, there was a lot of concern about not getting paid, that brokerage firms would have to liquidate. That was a wake-up call that really helped us to protect ourselves later during the crisis in 2008... [because] you are an unsecured creditor of a brokerage firm... That lesson also shaped my understanding of how fragile the system was. I believe the system was much closer to going down in two days in 1987 than at any point in 2008."



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The Farce That Is Economics: Richard Feynman On The Social Sciences

“Because of the success of science, there is a kind of a pseudo-science. Social science is an example of a science which is not a science. They follow the forms. You gather data, you do so and so and so forth, but they don’t get any laws, they haven’t found out anything. They haven’t got anywhere – yet. Maybe someday they will, but it’s not very well developed. But what happens is, at an even more mundane level, we get experts on everything that sound like they are sort of scientific, expert. They are not scientists. They sit at a typewriter and they make up something like ‘a food grown with a fertilizer that’s organic is better for you than food grown with a fertilizer that is inorganic’. Maybe true, may not be true. But it hasn’t been demonstrated one way or the other. But they’ll sit there on the typewriter and make up all this stuff as if it’s science and then become experts on foods, organic foods and so on. There’s all kinds of myths and pseudo-science all over the place."



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Einsteinian Insanity? FHFA Head Mel Watt Pushes Banks To Make Extreme Risk Home Loans

Mel Watt is one of the most dangerous financial oligarch puppets operating in America today. As Bloomberg reports, "a U.S. housing regulator plans new steps to encourage banks to lend to buyers with less than-perfect credit scores... Watt will also discuss an effort that would allow borrowers to put down as little as 3% of the purchase price." It’s for the good of the people right? He’s a “liberal” so he’s always working for the little guy, right? Wrong...



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Happy 27th Anniversary Black Monday

"It could never happen again... right?"

"This is a market that has been seriously overvalued for some time," exclaims Paul Tudor Jones, "and what we are seeing today is the piercing of the bubble..." adding that "Wall Street was uniformly unprepared for this kind of a drop."



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5 Truths (You Cannot Disagree With)



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Kudos To Herr Weidmann For Uttering Three Truths In One Speech

Once in a blue moon officials commit truth in public, but the intrepid leader of Germany’s central bank has delivered a speech which let’s loose of three of them in a single go. Speaking at a conference in Riga, Latvia, Jens Weidmann put the kibosh on QE, low-flation and central bank interference in pricing of risky assets.



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