An Odd Correlation Between Market Crashes And "Socialism"

While we were looking at various other Google trends, we stumbled across the following chart, which may have profound implications for not only U.S. capital markets, and what the media does or does not follow, but ostensibly the outcome of the U.S. presidential election and the overall future of the U.S.

Netflix Suffers "Death Cross"

With FANGs still down 10% from the end-2015 highs, and only Facebook green for the year, some might question the "never sell" mentality preached to all from the bullish-pulpit of brokerage-TV. However, for one of the FANGs, things just got a little dark. For the first time since 2014, NFLX just suffered a "death cross."

"China Is A Monumental Doomsday Machine" Stockman Warns

China is a monumental doomsday machine that bears no more resemblance to anything that could be called stable, sustainable capitalism than did Lenin’s New Economic Policy of the early 1920s. The latter was followed by Stalin’s Gulag and it would be wise to learn the Chinese word for the same, and soon. These folks are on the deadliest strain of financial heroin known to mankind and have no chance of surviving; its a dead economy walking.

US Oil Rig Count Plunges To Lowest Since Dec 2009

For the 10th week in a row (14th in last 15), the US oil rig count declined (down 13 to 400) to its lowest since Dec 2009. For now oil prices are undecided as while efficiency trumps the actual decline, the fact that the rig count is dropping so fast suggests production may come under pressure sooner rather than later.

IRS Takes On "Strong Christian" Trump: Says Audit Is No Reason To Hide Tax Returns

Following Mitt Romney's establishmentism and last night's attacks, Donald Trump's tax returns are the new narrative of this news cycle. Trump claimed he cannot (or is unwilling to) release his tax returns since he is currently under audit (which he says is "maybe because of the fact that I am a strong Christian..."). However, according to NBC’s Frank Thorp V, the IRS disagrees, saying in a statement that "nothing prevents individuals from sharing their own tax information." The showdown between Trump's lawyers and The IRS continues...

Rate-Hike Odds Surge To Highest Since January

Be careful what you wish for: equity exuberance (the biggest short-squeeze in 5 years) has circled back to create the circumstances for its own demise as The Fed is increasingly cornered by rising income, rising spending, low unemployment, and high inflation. Rate-hike odds have surged back to their highest since January, now expecting one more hike in 2016.

Hedge Funds Suffer $25Bn In Redemptions As Total Assets Drop To Lowest Since May 2014

After years of investors stoically refusing to redeem their money from underperforming hedge funds, their patience appears to have run out and according to eVestment data hedge funds that suffered losses last year were hit by redemptions worth $24.8 billion in January.  As a result, assets managed by hedge funds globally last month fell to $2.96 trillion at the end of January, the lowest since May 2014.

Rescheduled 7 Year Auction Results In Ugly, Tailing Mess

Moments ago yesterday's postponed 7Y auction priced and what a difference 24 hours makes: while yesterday the 7 Year was trading at about 1.43%, moments ago it priced at a yield of 1.568%., which while the lowest since May 2013, was in two words, an "ugly mess", railing the When Issued of 1.542% by a whopping 2.6 bps, and suggesting that there may well have been a buyer strike both today and perhaps yesterday as well. As a reminder, the Treasury has not provided any details on the reason for the delay.

World Trade Collapses Most Since Crisis

One question now dominates the global macro discussion: has subdued global growth and trade become the norm in the post-crisis world? That is, have lackluster growth and trade become structural and endemic rather than transient and cyclical? Spoiler alert: Yes.

Silver Slammed To 3-Week Lows

Since this morning's "good news" sparked rate-hike fears, precious metals have been under pressure. Gold is fading (to 3-day lows) but Silver is being slammed once again, back to 3-week lows...

G-20 Needs To "Man Up" Or Risk Sparking Market Chaos, Citi Warns

“Keeping the previous language would be very disappointing and would be viewed as either complacent or reflecting policy paralysis. [They need to] man up and tell member countries that monetary policy should be accompanied by fiscal expansion.”

Rate Hike Odds Rise As January Income, Spending Surge Most Since May

Amid the collapse of PMIs, regional Fed surveys, and surging inventories, personal income and spending both surged 0.5% MoM in January  - both better than expected. This is the best monthly gain since May 2015 as a drastically-revised data series notches the savings rate lower historically, but rose MoM. It seems Mester's comments this morning that a March hike is still on the table just got further support... time for another market crash to nsure that doesn't happen.

VIX Capitulation?

VIX mini 'flash-crashed' this morning to test its 200-day-moving-average to the lowest level since Dec 31st 2015. For now, it appears to have marked a low...

Copper & Crude Are Soaring On China Hype

Amid hype hope that China will suddenly change course and unleash all new fiscal stimulus - because just what the nation needs is more ghost cities, ghost bridges to nowhere, and ghost infrastructure - has sparked panic-buying in crude and copper this morning...