"What happens when the Bernanke Put dies?" is the salient question that Charles Biderman of TrimTabs asks and answers in today's effusive excursion into a market that will face both deflation and inflation. In response to the question of what happens after the current miasma of markets ends, Biderman opines that assets will deflate - once the Bernank's constant handing over of trillions to bankers is done, equity and bond prices will deflate and commodity prices will inflate. Nominal USD-priced commodities will soar against a deflating currency as asset prices for everything else will deflate. Concerned, just as we have been, that outbreaks of violence will occur in Europe as their 'safety net' unravels, Charles adds that while the US faces turmoil, Europe will get their ahead of us as "their entire welfare-state-based economies will need a do-over". He does offer a silver-lining for the post-modern world with some thoughts on the productivity boom (and not just leverage) that an online world will bring and while he believes US housing has bottomed for the lowest 2/3rds of the population, he remains extremely cautious on equity prices and their inevitable crash.
Here it is in its entirety: 193 pages of politicized goodness, or for the time press-ones, one quick word cloud.
After some initial confusion in stocks (though Precious Metals and Treasuries were convinced) equities are now down markedly (with Hospitals holding up while Managed Care is down) but it seems that US citizen/investors are selling down their gold, silver, and stocks to 'save up' for the new Obamacare tax...
Here we go:
- OBAMA'S HEALTH-CARE OVERHAUL UPHELD BY U.S. SUPREME COURT
- 5-4 decisions, with Roberts joining the court's liberals.
- Court says federal government can’t threaten to withhold money from states that don’t fully comply on Medicaid extension
- CHIEF JUSTICE ROBERTS SAYS MANDATE IS NOT A VALID EXERCISE OF CONGRESS' POWER UNDER COMMERCE CLAUSE AND NECESSARY AND PROPER CLAUSE
- HEALTH LAW'S MEDICAID EXPANSION LIMITED BY U.S. SUPREME COURT -RTRS
- ROBERTS, JOINED BY TWO JUSTICES, SAYS MEDICAID EXPANSION VIOLATES CONSTITUTION -RTRS
- FOUR JUSTICES DISSENT, SAYING THE PATIENT PROTECTION AND AFFORDABLE CARE ACT GOES BEYOND -RTRSCONGRESSIONAL POWERS UNDER CONSTITUTION -RTRS
- ScotusBlog conclusion: So the mandate is constitutional
- The bottom line: the entire ACA is upheld, with the exception that the federal government's power to terminate states' Medicaid funds is narrowly read
- The ACA is upheld as a tax, not a penalty
We posted this on Monday. With the SCOTUS ruling due out in minutes, here again is a preview of the various permutations that can come out today, and their impact on capital markets: "BofA outlines five possible scenarios and their potential impact across the healthcare sectors. They base the likelihood of their scenarios on a review of the March oral arguments, previous circuit court decisions, as well as surveys of legal experts and former Supreme Court clerks. Everything you need to know about the possible outcomes and actions to take."
The British Bankers Association Is "Shocked", "Shocked" That Lie-Bor Manipulation Is Going On In HereSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 06/28/2012 - 09:27
The British Bankers Association - the entity responsible for organizing and compiling the daily Lie-bor fixes, and which as Zero Hedge incidentally reported two weeks ago continues to report one absolutely meaningless and unchanged number in "Spirit Level... Or Li(e)bor?" has just opined on the topic of massive Lie-bor fixing collusion and manipulation. In short: they are absolutely "shocked."
As Merkel, via Schaeuble, continues unwaveringly in Germany's pursuit of their consistent call for controls if the rest of Europe gets their money, chatter on desks is that maybe its not Zee Germans that are the problem at the Summit but Les French with Hollande's insistence that "there can be no transfer of sovereignty if there is no improvement in solidarity." Strategic Alpha's Maurice Pomery is "not convinced that Germany should be deemed the stubborn aggressor in all of this" and as we have been vociferously stating "Merkel is NOT going to be bullied into any wealth transfer; forget it" and "Hollande cannot make sweeping socialist changes and expect Germany to pay for it." Critically, given the levels of financial repression, and Newedge's comment that "the counter-intuitive moves Hollande has made by cutting some pension ages and rising the minimum wage have scared the market" and taken together with his comments about growth, the markets perceive Hollande as lacking a strong commitment to austerity. Until he demonstrates otherwise, France is vulnerable to a repatriation spiral (going the same way as Spain then Italy - where the markets have increasingly repatriated themselves into domestic enclaves) and the inevitable endgame where domestic demand for bonds becomes unsustainable.
Two data points out today: the first was Initial Claims which did precisely as expected: it improved even as it deteriorated: why - the media headline will blast: "Initial Claims Decline by 6K" because last week's number of 387K was just revised to 392K. Ironically, enough, this was just as at least we expected. From 8:27 am.
Last week's Initial Claims number of 387K will be revised to at least 390K in 3 minutes
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) June 28, 2012
That what actually happened was a miss of baseline expectations, in that claims would drop to 385K is irrelevant. Just as it is irrelevant that next week, today's 386K number will be revised to 390K. And the media manipulation song and dance revisions will continue. More importantly, and continuing the 99 week cliff issue, 60,000 people dropped off initial and extended claims in the past week. In other words, 1.260 million people have fallen off extended benfits in the past year: people who no longer collect any form of unemployment benefits. Surely they have all "found jobs."
As it dawns upon the world that Ms. Merkel means exactly what she says and is not going to back down you may expect a quite negative reaction in the equity markets and a widening of spreads for some risk assets along with a strengthening of the Dollar. I am talking about the “Trend” here and not some trading strategy for today’s business. Germany is not going to flinch and cannot both due to local politics and to the now obvious fact that Germany has just about reached the limits of what she is financially able to do with a $3.2 trillion economy. To put it quite simply; they have run out of excess cash and more European contributions are only going to weaken the balance sheet of the nation and seriously imperil Germany’s financial condition. I say, one more time, Germany is not going to roll over and all of the pan European schemes brought forward by the bureaucrats and the poorer nations are not going to go anywhere. There is one novel possibility here and that is that the Germans, like the British, may opt out. Germany, Austria, the Netherlands, Finland et al may just say, “Fine, go ahead if you wish to have Eurobonds and the like but we will not guarantee them.” All plans do not need to have an either/or solution and this may well be Germany’s position in the end which would place the periphery nations and France in quite an interesting, if unenviable, place.
Earlier today there was an amusing headline generated in the WSJ "Berlin Blinks on Shared Debt" which we noted in the frontruninng section and promptly mocked, because it was patently 100% untrue, and would have a chance of happening only if markets were in full on crash mode. It also goes completely against what everyone in Germany has been saying for weeks and months. Still, the stupid markets, and especially the EURUSD algos keep responding as more and more media sources caught on to this headline. It took just under 40 minutes for Germany to get out of bed and slap the WSJ down, which as of this morning has about the same credibility as the Guardian in the Euro-rumor mongering department.
- GERMAN FINANCE MINISTRY SPOKESMAN SAYS SCHAEUBLE DID NOT SAY GERMANY WILL MOVE SOONER THAN EXPECTED TOWARDS SHARED LIABILITY FOR DEBT
- Funny WSJ headline: Berlin Blinks on Shared Debt (WSJ)... sure: if XO hits 1000 bps tomorrow, Eurobonds in 2 days
- Barclays $451 Million Libor Fine Paves Way for Competitors (Bloomberg)
- Fed officials differ on whether more easing needed (Reuters)
- China Local Government Finances Are Unsustainable, Auditor Says (Bloomberg)
- Just because the NYT is not enough, Krugman has now metastasized to the FT: A manifesto for economic sense (FT)
- Merkel dubs quick bond solutions ‘eyewash’ (FT)
- Yuan trade settlements encouraged in SAR (China Daily)
- Katrina Comeback Makes New Orleans Fastest-Growing City (Bloomberg)
- European Leaders Seek to Overcome Divisions at Summit (Bloomberg)
We have long said that the maximum potential loss of the JPM CIO trade based on the blow out in IG9 10 year (and associated trades complex), which has about a $200 million DV01, is far beyond not only the $2 billion that Jamie Dimon estimated on May 10, but above our own estimate which was $5 billion on that same day. Today, the NYT "according to people who have been briefed on the situation" which translated means just more media propaganda because all the news on the topic in the past month has been leaks by axed parties, says that 'Losses on JPMorgan Chase’s bungled trade could total as much as $9 billion, far exceeding earlier public estimates, according to people who have been briefed on the situation." Also according to the NYT, and roundly refuting what the other leak had told Bloomberg and other media outlets, "The bank’s exit from its money-losing trade is happening faster than many expected. JPMorgan previously said it hoped to clear its position by early next year; now it is already out of more than half of the trade and may be completely free this year." Obviously, this refutes media "reports" also based on "people familiar" or "conflicted sources" that JPM has unwound its trade, either by novating, or by transferring it over to helpful hedge funds. Bottom line: take everything with a grain of salt until Dimon himself gives an update in two weeks, as this could easily be an upper bound loss estimate starwman to set expectations very low, sending the stock soaring when the "final" announce loss comes in at ~$5 billion, courtesy of other well-known "masking" techniques such as loan loss reserve release and DVA benefits.