Existing Home Sales Slump In June - Weakest Summer Selling Season Since 2011

On the heels of homebuilder optimism tumbling to 8-month lows in July, existing home sales slumped in June (down 1.8%, more than the 0.9% decline expected) to the second lowest SAAR this year. Existing home sales are now unchanged since September, but we note that average prices are up 6.5% YoY.

Manufacturing Rebound Sends US PMI To 6-Month High (As European PMI Hits 6-Month Low)

Following Europe's PMI slump to six-month lows this morning, US Composite PMI rose to a six-month high, with Manufacturng surprising to the upside (4-mo high). The stronger PMI reading was supported by accelerated growth in output, new orders, employment and stocks of inputs during July, but the principal weak spot in the economy remained exports, with foreign goods orders dropping.

Trump Said To Consider Replacing Jeff Sessions With Rudy Giuliani: Axios

According to Axios, Trump is reportedly "so unhappy with Attorney General Jeff Sessions that he has raised the possibility of bringing back Rudolph Giuliani to head the Justice Department, according to West Wing confidants." As Axios adds, in internal conversations, Trump has recently pondered the idea of nominating Giuliani, "a stalwart of his campaign."

Caterpillar Retail Sales Post Longest Winning Streak In 51 Months

CAT's global sales have posted the longest positive streak in 51 months, and appear to have put the 4+ year depression in the read view mirror - even if Asian retail sales appear to be slowing once again - and are levitating higher, although just like during the 2011/2012 downturn, it all depends on how "hard" China's economic slowdown will be over the coming year.

EU To Retaliate "Within Days" If US Imposes New Sanctions On Russia

According to an internal memo leaked to the press, Brussles said it should act "within days" if new sanctions the US plans to impose on Russia prove to be damaging to Europe’s trade ties with Moscow. Retaliatory measures may include limiting US jurisdiction over EU companies.

UBS: "Political Entertainment While We Await The Fed"

The US Federal Reserve dominates the near term, with markets not looking for a quantitative policy tightening this month. The Fed's challenge is communicating long-term real world policy to investors obsessed with hashtag economics.

OPEC/Saudi 'Promises' Fail To Ignite Momentum in WTI Crude Prices

WTI crude remains stuck ominously below $46 despite a full court press jawboning, headline-pumping effort this morning. As oil leaders meet in St.Petersburg, Saudis promised to cut exports further, Nigeria suggested it would limit output (at dramatically higher-than-current production), Russia offered hope that Q3 had "big potential", and OPEC suiggested tighter compliance monitoring (as cheating has picked up in recent months).. but oil just won't budge.

Frontrunning: July 24

  • Kushner, Russian Ambassador Had Undisclosed Contact (WSJ)
  • Democrats take aim at big companies in economic blueprint (Reuters)
  • Trump open to signing Russia sanctions legislation (Reuters)
  • Senate GOP Unsure of What Health-Care Measure They Will Vote On (WSJ)
  • Japan PM Abe denies favors for friend amid falling support (Reuters)

The FX Week Ahead: The Dollar Crashes Again, Can The Fed Revive The USD At Wednesday's FOMC?

Looking at some of the price action, we have broken out of some key levels and areas, so in this respect, 'end of days' means an end to the uptrend which has seen the EUR rate pushing back through 1.1500, while the commodity currencies also look to have set a longer term low in place. What is doesn't mean - necessarily - is that the USD is going to implode, though the past week has seemed that way!