In Troubling Sign, Ford Now Offers $10,000 Discounts On New F-150 Pickups

When oil priced tumbled last year it was supposed to be a major boon for car sales and, indeed, courtesy of car loans whose  rejections rates have never been lower and with LTVs for loans on used cars sold to subprime borrowers now a record high 150%, some such as government-favorite GM benefited greatly, with sales of Chevy Silverado jumping a solid 18.4% June. Others, however, have been struggling: sales of Ford's top-selling and most profitable line, the aluminum-bodied F-150, were down 8.9% last month as Ford's market share of big-pickup trucks dropped to 28% from 33% one year ago.  Ford's response: a huge push to incentivize buyers, in the form of discounts that can exceed $10,000!

Janet Yellen's "Unleash The Liz Warren" Senate Testimony Day 2: - Live Feed

Yesterday she faced the wrath of Hensarling and Duffy in her Congressional hearing, today Fed Chair Janet Yellen pops over to The Senate. We suspect the rhetoric will be a little less aggressive as traders are interested to see if she walks back her comments yesterday that appeared to signal more hawkish "sooner" rate hikes. Of course, the main event will be when Elizabeth Warren is unleashed...

Debt Is The Barbarous Relic! Not Gold

Owning gold is saving, which by definition is civilized, i.e. NOT barbarous. Debt, on the other hand, is the exact opposite. It is a lack of savings that shows a complete disregard for the future. It is the modern equivalent of gorging on some wild beast with no thought to tomorrow’s meal… or in this case, no thought of tomorrow’s generation. Debt is the barbarous relic. Not gold. And governments are up to their eyeballs in it, continuing to engage in this primitive, uncivilized behavior with wanton abandon.

Greek Banks Just Became A "Strong Sell" At Any Price

Even as Greek banks, severely depleted of cash and eligible collateral they can post with the ECB, stand to fight another day (and potentially face more withdrawals as soon as the Greek banks reopen supposedly on Monday) thanks to another €900 million liquidity infusion, investors in Greek bank shares will be less lucky: "to ensure a new bailout, investors in the country’s banks faced the prospect of their holdings being "wiped out" under the terms of a €25 billion recapitalization plan."

3 Things: Retail, NFIB, Divergences

As with all data, none of these data points suggests that the economy, or the markets, will immediately plunge into a recessionary contraction. However, what is important to consider is that many of these data points are now converging and suggesting that risk is more elevated now than at any point since the financial crisis. It is at least worth thinking about.

This Is Getting Ridiculous...

Post-Greek "Deal", stocks have soared in an incessant volumeless ramp. At the same time, and with heavy volume, the long-bond has been aggressively bid...

Volatility In Motion

Views on volatility are often only within recent context, causing sometimes influential advisers and investment banks to misguidedly extrapolate correction or premature rebound calls with far greater frequency then they actually occur (excessive false positives).  In this article we see everything through a pertinent wider lens.  We focus on how and when volatility moves from one level, to another. 

Greek Banks To Reopen On Monday, But Do Greeks Have Any Faith Left In Their Banks?

It was less than three weeks ago that, in the aftermath of the surprising announcement of the Greek referendum and the even more surprising cap on the ECB's now clearly conditional ELA, the world was greeted to massive lines of Greeks waiting at ATMs where they were allowed to withdraw only €60 per day. Following the Greek capitulation, whose sole directive was recovering access to locked up bank funds, hopes were that Greek banks would promptly reopen, and now, according to a Greek senior banker cited by Reuters we know just when that will happen: Monday.

WTI Tumbles Back To A $50 Handle On Iran, Default, And Cushing Build Fears

Having surged on Tuesday when the Iran "deal" was confirmed and tumbled yesterday despite inventory draws and production decreases, WTI crude is re-slumping back to a $50 handle this morning as traders cite more Iran concerns (flattening the curve) and a Genscape report that indicates inventory builds at Cushing once again...

VIXterminated - Fear Collapses By Most In 31 Months

There is nothing to fear but freed itself... With VXX - the VIX ETF - at record lows, the VIX term structure has swung from backwardated last week to extremely steep with VIX hitting an 11 handle this morning. This is the biggest weekly drop in fear since January 2013...

Philly Fed "Bounce" Plunges To 2015 Lows, Employment Tumbles

After June's hope-strewn dead-cat-bounce, Philly Fed has plunged back to the lows of the year. Printing 5.7, missing expectations of 12.0, this is the biggest miss since January. It appears the weakness in Q1 (and Q2) and now Q3 was more than just weather... or port closures... as the employment index plunged to its lowest since January.

ECB Joins IMF In Call For Greek Debt Cut, Schaeuble Shoots It Down (Again)

Despite earlier commenting that Greek debt sustainability is hard without a write off, German FinMin Schaeuble just told German lawmakers bluntly that there will be no Greek debt cut. What is problematic for Merkel and her minions is that Mario Draghi just confirmed what The IMF has been 'secretly' leaking - that it is "uncontroversial that Greek debt relief is necessary." As this confusion reigns, The Eurogroup has issued a statement "welcoming the adoption by the Greek parliament" of the measures imposed upon the Greek people to drive them further into depression.

How The FOMC Became Institutionally Corrupt

For the FOMC to reach its mandate of full employment they boost stock prices which then creates employment in bubble jobs. When people feel rich, they spend more money on the low quality bubble jobs, and hence employment reacts accordingly. This is obviously entirely unsustainable as spending paid for by feelings manipulated by the FOMC accounts to nothing more than pure capital consumption, and the money flow will disappear as soon as the FOMC tighten the screw and the good feeling disappears along with the stock market gains.