RANsquawk Preview: Nonfarm Payrolls 4th December 2015


November’s NFP release is in strong focus after the stellar reading in October which saw the largest increase this year at 271K additions. Additionally, unemployment is expecting to remain at 5% which will maintain the reading at the lowest level since Apr’08. Furthermore, average hourly earnings are typically in focus due to being a key indicator of wage inflation for the Fed.

Citi Turns Bearish On Stocks On "Richer And Richer" Markets, Sees 65% Recession Probability; Janet Yellen Disagrees

"Given the surge back towards the all-time highs in the S&P 500, we think that the best might be over for US equities and that indices might range trade more in 2016. We have downgraded US equities to neutral. This takes our overall equity weighting down to neutral, in many respects an extension of what we’ve been doing for most of this year as richer and richer asset markets, against a global background of economic risks, have made us more cautious."

WTI Crude Surges On OPEC Hope, Dollar Drop

As the USDollar plunges under the weight of short-squeezed EUR FX traders, so commodities are making gains. With OPEC right around the corner, WTI continues to bethe highest beta and has soared back to yesterday's highs on no news whatsoever (apart from comments from OPEC that they will only cut if non-OPEC cuts).

There Go The Truckers: Unprecedented 59% Plunge In November Heavy Truck Orders

The rout beneath the relative calm of the market surface continues today as another sector has gotten crushed today in reaction to the domestic and global collapse in trade, the spreading domestic manufacturing recession and the bursting of the commodity bubble: truckers, and especially the heaviest, Class 8 trucks, those with a gross weight over 33K pounds, those which make up the backbone of U.S. trade infrastructure and logistics.

S&P 500 Tumbles Into Red For 2015, Breaks Key Technical Support

The S&P 500 (cash) index just broke back below the crucial 200-day moving-average (at 2,064) for the first time since the Paris terror attack rally began. This has dragged the index back to unchanged year-to-date with only Nasdaq holding gains in 2015.

'Insolvent' US Government Spends $375k To Study Senior-Citizen Dating Habits

It was just a few weeks ago that the International Monetary Fund predicted that Saudi Arabia would likely be bankrupt within the next five years. Saudi Arabia’s financial position is deteriorating rapidly, and the government is burning through cash like a coked-up rock star.  The Saudis followed this up with plans now to build the world’s tallest skyscraper, which would stand a full kilometer in height. Seriously, what are these people thinking? What kind of idiot goes out of his way to blow through cash when he’s rapidly going broke? Why, the United States of America of course.

DAX Crashes Most Since Black Monday - Erases Paris Attack Gains

Having ramped its way up to the cliff's edge of China devaluation and Black Monday's free-fall, Germany's DAX has come unbuttoned rapidly with a 480-plus point droip today. Down over 5.5% in the last 3 days, crushed back under 11,000 today with a 3.75% crash - the most since August 24th - all thanks to Draghi over-selling his "whatever-it-takes"-ness... after the Paris Terror attacks.

Bloodbath In Bonds - Yields Jump Most In 7 Months

The entire Treasury curve is getting battered with 30Y +13bps, back above 3.00%. The belly is the most dramatic with 7Y yields up over 11bps - the biggest single-day surge in 7 months. 5Y yields are up over 9bps pushing back to the "wall" of resistance...

Housing Bubble 2.0 Exposed (In 1 Simple Chart)

The gap between real house prices and real earnings is even wider than it was in Housing Bubble 1. History (and common sense) suggest that housing prices will once again fall sharply until the black line of house prices is well below the red line of real earnings. To expect anything different is unrealistic and highly dangerous to one's financial well-being.

President Obama Delivers Statement, Says Shooting "Possibly Terrorist-Related" - Live Feed

Having stated unequivocally last week that "we can't let this become the new normal.. enough is enough," following the Planned Parenthood shooting, President Obama - having seen a record amount of background checks for gun purchases over the Black Friday weekend - is set to make a statement (alongside his National Security Team) with regard the mass shooting in San Bernardino yesterday...

Spot The Factory Orders Recession

Here is a chart which will make the US manufacturing recession visible even to the most tenured central planner and economist.

US Services Economy Crashes To 2015 Lows (And Surges To 6-Month Highs) - Obamacare Blamed

US Services PMI rose from 54.8 in October to 56.1 in November - the highest since May 2015 (but this is a drop from the flash print of 56.5 and 2nd biggest miss against expectations of the year). ISM Services crashed from 59.1 to 55.9 (drastically missing expectations) hovering near its lowest since April 2014. Weakness is across the board with Business Activity, New Orders, Employment, Backlog, Exports and Imports all down. Why is the service economy slipping? Simple, the "Affordable Care Act impacting our business, reducing revenue while increasing cost of care."

Fed Faith Falters As Consumer Comfort Plunges To 13-Month Lows

Low gas prices? High stock prices? Fed confidence in the economy? Fuhgetaboutit... Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort Index just crashed to its lowest since November 16th. It seems the confidence in the fact that The Fed ended QE3 was entirely misplaced after all...

Janet Yellen Explains To Congress How Devoted She Is To Americans' Interests - Live Feed

Having yesterday explained how The Fed is "devoted" to Americans' interests and how "excited" she is to raise rates, Janet Yellen is set to face the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today... to explain to them how - in her mind - everything is awesome enough to hike rates, despite Chinese stocks crashing again, carnage in commodities, a revenues recession, plunging EBITDA, a collapse in US manufacturing, housing rolling over, and auto sales fading (light vehicle incentives up 14% YoY). Following the renewed volatility in markets, thanks to Draghi, the question is will Yellen be a little more hawkish given the room the ECB has given her?