Ben Bernanke is so desperate to find support regarding his steal from the poor and give to the 0.01% policies he is now telling blatant lies about famous, dead economists that can’t refute what he says. In this case Milton Friedman. In his Q&A today, The Bernank claimed:
BERNANKE: MILTON FRIEDMAN WOULD HAVE SUPPORTED WHAT FED DOING
Well I suppose it’s easy to make things up about people that can’t claim otherwise, but he made a big mistake this time. Why? Because Anna Schwartz, who co-wrote the famous work “A Monetary History of the United States” with Milton Friedman in 1963, actually came on the record on several occasions calling out The Bernank and saying there’s no way Friedman would agree. The sad part about this is it seems Bernanke waited until Schwartz died to really start spewing the lies. This guy is not only dangerous he is despicable and increasingly desperate… Don’t take it from me though, back in October 2008 Anna Schwartz had this to say in the Wall Street Journal.
According to a recent CNN poll, 60% of Americans want go to war with Iran to prevent them from getting nuclear weapons. This in spite of the fact that the US intelligence community is fairy unanimous that Iran is not even currently pursuing nuclear weapons. Simultaneously 71% of Americans — in total contradiction to the evidence recognised by both the CIA and Mossad that Iran is not currently even developing a nuclear weapon — believe that Iran currently has nuclear weapons. Unlike the 71%, I’m not really convinced by this — if anything, it could be Iranian disinformation to try and avoid an American or Israeli attack. More importantly, the US and Israeli intelligence community at large don’t buy it. If they had any real evidence that Iran had a bomb today, Netanyahu would have been presenting it at the UN instead of drawing red lines on Wile E. Coyote bomb diagrams.
With gold being horded in Iran and hitting 2012 highs this morning, CNBC's Rick Santelli addresses the 800lb gorilla in the Fed's room - the threat of inflation. Critically noting that the hyperinflation of Weimar Germany "did not happen overnight" but was gestated quietly until it was unstoppable by currency debasement; the question remains of what exactly the Fed thinks it is doing. Santelli makes the important point that if we look at 'printing money' as any type of solution then why not take it to the extreme - "if we just print a million dollars for every man, woman and child and handed it to them, wouldn't that fix everything?" As he adds "if it was that easy there would be no need for economist, no need for even CNBC, but it isn't that easy," Reflecting on Evans' earlier inability to quantify any metrics for whether QEternity was working, Santelli notes that the Fed man falls back to 'confidence' (animal spirits) but worries that inflation is a lot like soybeans; need sun, water, and time but eventually will grow rapidly.
Obama may want to throw this one in the unsolicited communist dictator endorsement pile. From CNN: "President Barack Obama received one endorsement he definitely did not ask for Monday: Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. The leftist leader and strong man, who has used strong anti-United States language in his political rallies and official speeches, told state-owned VTV, "In the point of view of his politics, if I were voting, I would vote for Obama and I believe that if Obama was from Caracas, he would vote for Chavez." Whatever one says or thinks about the Caracas head guy who recently is quoted as saying that "perhaps Mars had life at one time but then evil capitalism showed up and finished the planet off" (and Mars didn't build that life he forgot to add) or his foray into US elections, where he now shares the view of socialist Europe, he sure knows a gold bar in the local safe is worth two in the LBMA vaults in London.
Because the horse and buggy is the new normal car:
- FIAT ITALY NEW CAR SALES FALL 24% IN SEPT
- FRENCH CAR SALES FALL 18.3% IN SEPTEMBER, DOWN 13.9% THROUGH SEPTEMBER
- PORTUGUESE LIGHT VEHICLE SALES DROP 42% THROUGH SEPTEMBER
This is what happens when you don't take advantage of US, Chinese, or for that matter Global channel stuffing. It is, for now, unclear if Mario Draghi's monetization of 1-4 cylinder Fiats is forbidden by Article 123.
While the 'Misery' Index in Iran reaches exceptional levels, and the US aggregate of inflation and unemployment peaked last October, Europe's misery has continued to rise in the face of an ever-easing ECB and political jawboning. As SocGen notes today, the UK's misery has turned back higher and the Euro-zone's Misery Index has never been higher. These misery indices clearly reflect deteriorating economic performances in the main G10 countries, with some unsurprisingly weaker performances in Spain and Greece, leading the eurozone index higher. Given recessionary situations expected in some eurozone countries next year, the misery index is unfortunately quite unlikely to edge south significantly.
Catching up to the apparent 'good news' from the Spanish bank audit debacle and as we noted earlier, the smallest of beats in a singular data item, provided some support for equity prices in Europe today. It appeared as though traders had reduced weight or been modestly short-biased into the news and the lack of events spurred a reversal - which on its own looks good but merely returns us to Thursday's close (or not even for Spain). In other markets, the US ISM data spurred a jump which was immediately faded in both EURUSD, European sovereigns, and European corporate/financial credit markets. Bottom line - European equities round-tripped from Thursday but credit markets are much less sanguine.
"History may not repeat itself but it does rhyme"
Trading Halted On All NYSE Liffe London And Paris Commodities And All London Universal Stock FuturesSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/01/2012 - 10:13
It seems like it was only Friday that Goldman's daily GDP forecast adjustment team revised its GDP lower. Oh wait, it was. Since it is another day ending in -y, here comes Hatzius' crack commando team with yet another downward revision.
Iranian clerics' attempts to curb speculation in the Rial and stabilize the currency appear to have backfired as the un-official (real) Rial rate traded as low as 34,250 Rial to the USD this morning - a massive 20% plunge. Demand for gold is surging (as Tehran exchange volume is up almost 18% today) as the population appears to be readying itself for hyperinflationary death - as we wrote yesterday, it really is no fun in Iran. The following tables/links will allow the real-time monitoring of that market's collapse - since Bloomberg's official rates are entirely useless. Instead of allaying fears about the availability of dollars, the centre seems to have intensified the race for hard currency as "The government's initiative ... brought to the surface a tremendous lack of confidence in its ability to manage the currency,"
When in doubt, baffle with bullshit. Just a day after the Chicago PMI posted its biggest collapse in years (not to mention the absolutely horrendous Durable Goods number), leading everyone to believe that the ISM, and Q3 GDP will be absolutely abysmal, here comes the Manufacturing ISM number, printing far above expectations of 49.7, and well above the last print of 49.6, and in fact posting its first increase since May of 2012. This means that the ISM to Chicago PMI gap is now the widest since September 2009. Perhaps the White House's Alan Krueger had run out of explanations for why the economy is collapsing into Q4, and finally made sure going forward all economic data will be better than expected. At least until the election of course. The biggest movers in the September ISM print: New Orders, Prices, and Employment, all of which posted numbers solidly in the 50+ range. Now we look forward to either an epic beat in the Services ISM next, or a complete collapse to continue treating everyone like mushrooms. In other news, construction spending plunged to -0.6% from -0.4%, on expectations of a +0.5% increase. But who cares: today housing is irrelevant as somehow the US manufacturing industry is improving, all other signs to the contrary be damned.
Charlie Evans proved once and for all that he is the 'doviest' dove in the Fed's dove-cote as he espoused his own special sense of reality with CNBC's Steve Liesman this morning. His ability to speak out of both sides of his dual-mandate mouth while suppressing the reality of rising prices and expounding on the need for the Fed to be more accomodative (we assume they will stop at infinite infinities of easing), Evans made it very clear, when pushed on the topic of QE efficacy, that they will continue to print (unable to provide any quantitative assessment of the result) until morale improves. That's it; nothing less. Inflation - no worries; all the time the unemployment rate is where it is they are justified in debasing to the max. Must watch clip to understand why precious metals have surged this morning and stocks not so much as they will repeat the same actions again and again and expect a different outcome.
China "Stimulates" Economy By Suspending Road Tolls For Golden Week - Millions End Up Stuck In Traffic JamsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 10/01/2012 - 08:22
This one is for the the no good Keynesian deed goes unpunished files. As part of its 8 day Golden Week celebration, China's central planners decided to do a good thing for the people and remove all tolls from expressways. That was the populist explanation. The fundamental one was that this act would somehow spur the economy. Alas, while the same people may have saved some transit money in the process, what they did not save was on transit times. As South China Morning Post reports, millions were promptly stuck in traffic jams as a result of the politburo's generosity. From SCMP: "A bid by authorities to stimulate the economy by suspending road tolls for the "golden week" holiday brought huge tailbacks across the mainland yesterday as almost 86 million travelers took to the roads. That's 13.3 per cent more than on the first day of the National Day holiday last year." And then the fun began: "One traveller blogged that he could only move 200 metres in an hour on the Zhengzhou to Shijiazhuang expressway in Henan province. Others said the queue of cars on the Guangzhou to Shenzhen expressway was 40 kilometres long. All roads leading out of Guangdong were jammed, with cars moving at about a kilometre an hour in front of some toll gates. Provincial traffic-management authorities estimated traffic on expressways would increase by 40 to 80 per cent compared with the same period last year, the Shenzhen Special Zone Daily reported. The People's Daily reported dozens of accidents on 24 highways across the mainland, further aggravating the congestion."