SkyNet's Favorite "Harmonic Oscillator" Algo Is Back

Over two years later, it is good to see our old friend is still right there and that SkyNet still reigns supreme, because as the following chart of CTRP, courtesy of Nanex, shows "new normal" algo-controlled stocks appears to have just two default modes: a relentless ramp higher (courtesy of a VWAP buyback programs or just momentum ignition), or a far more "nuanced" sinewave oscillation up and down in what only a Princeon economist could call "price discovery."

US Shale Under Pressure From More Than Just Low Prices

Hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, has come full circle in Denton, Texas after a controversial ban on the practice entered into effect on Tuesday. Denton is one of several cities located on top of the massive Barnett shale formation, regarded as the birthplace of modern fracking. The ban, while incomplete, gives strength to what is a growing anti-fracking movement in the United States.

Citi Warns Time To Get Defensive On USDJPY

With today's shenanigans in USDJPY focusing everyone's attention on the nation's collapsing currency, Citi's FX Technicals group suggests it could perhaps be time to fade the trend and fight the consensus in the near-term.

Only Yesterday - How The Federal Debt Went From $1 Trillion To $18 Trillion in 33 Years

In the great fiscal scheme of things, October 22, 1981 seems like only yesterday. That’s the day the US public debt crossed the $1 trillion mark for the first time. It had taken the nation 74,984 days to get there (205 years). What prompts this reflection is that just a few days ago the national debt breached the $18 trillion mark; and the last trillion was added in hardly 365 days.

On This Day 18 Years Ago, Alan Greenspan Warns Of "Irrational Exuberance"

December 5th 1996: After rising 210% off the 1987 crash lows, Alan Greenspan speaking at the American Enterprise Institute in Washington, asks: "But how do we know when irrational exuberance has unduly escalated asset values, which then become subject to unexpected and prolonged contractions as they have in Japan over the past decade?" The next day, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slumps by 1% to close at 6,381.94; over the next three years, the market nearly doubles...then crashes...then doubles... then crashes... and then triples in the last five years... "rational exuberance"

Meet Kevin Henry, ETF Trading Expert?

By now everyone has heard of the NY Fed's most famous employee (who did not work at Goldman Sachs previously): Kevin Henry, who according to his latest LinkedIn profile was recently promoted to Senior Associate at the Capital Markets desk at the NY Fed (and if they haven't, a refresh can be found here, here and here). Which is fine: Kevin deserves all the recognition and accolades that are due to anyone who manages to centrally-plan the world's biggest bond market. Because after all that's what the Fed does: it intervenes in the bond market. Nothing strange about that. And yet we have one question: why does Kevin seem to exhibit an absolute fascination when it comes to equity ETFs?

Europe (In 2 Ridiculous Charts)

Consider: European stocks just closed at their highest since Jan 2008; Spanish bond yields hit a record low 1.803% and Spanish youth unemployment hovers near a record high 53.8%; Italian bond yields hit a record low 1.72% and Italian youth unemployment is at a record 43.3%. So once again we ask, why exactly does Europe need sovereign QE? WTF is it that lower rates will do?

Treasury Yield Curve Flattens Dramatically, Below Lehman Levels

The reaction to today's blockbuster noise-ridden jobs data is muted in stocks but bonds are sending some complicated and uncomfortable signals. 2Y yields are 6-7bps higher and 30Y yield are now unchanged (havingbeen 4-5bps higher) as the market prices in short-term Fed action and the implicit medium-term economic weakness expected. This 6-7bps flattening of the 2s30s curve has crushed the spread to 234bps - below levels seen as Lehman failed and near Summer 2012's cycle lows. But we are sure 2015 will be the year that rates rise... right?

Friday Humor: 2014 Is The Best Year For Job Growth In The New Millennium

Here's a paradox: a month after the democrats were massacred in the House in the midterm elections due to America's revulsion with the non-recovery, and a week after the worst start to the holiday shopping season since Lehman, the WSJ tells us that 2014 will be the best year for jobs in the New Millennium.

US Factory Orders Tumble, Miss By Most Since January

But, but, but payrolls data was awesome!! US Factory Orders tumbled 0.7% in October (missing 0.0% expectations) for the 3rd month in a row (for the first time since June 2012). Rather notably, the only other time we had 3 straight months of factory orders declines was in the recession and the 2012 decline was saved by QE3. The data was ugly across the board: Non-durable orders -1.5%, non-defense, ex-air tumbled 1.6%, and inventories-to-shipments levels are at the year's highs. More problematically for GDP enthusiasts, October inventories of manufactured nondurable goods decreased 0.5% to $249.0 billion driven by petroleum and coal products (but wait lower oil prices are unequivocally good right?)

Obama To Announce Ash Carter As New Defense Chief, Boast About November Jobs: Live Webcast

The ink isn't dry yet on the amazing midterm drubbing of the democrats over what most Americans said were deteriorating economic issues and a recovery that continues to only be there on BLS goalseeked paper, and lo and behold, here is Obama, about to boast about today's whopper of a jobs number, in which the BLS proudly reported the US hired some 321K workers in November, mostly temps, secretaries, retail and leisure workers and teachers. That, and the president is also expected to announce the choice of Ash Carter as the new Secretary of Defense.

As Yen Collapses, Japanese Stocks Trump US By Most In 19 Months

Having started 2014 - coincidentally - at 16,300 (both Dow Industrials and Nikkei 225), by mid-year the Dow was trading 2200 points above its Japanese counterpart. Since then things have changed as the JPY has careened headlong towards collapse, Japanese stocks have resurged and at 18,060, trades 150 points above the Dow at 17,910...  However, in USD terms, Japanese stocks are -4.5%, while The Dow is +9.15% year-to-date.

Where The Jobs Were: Secretaries, Waiters, Retail, Education, Leisure And Temp-Help

Curious just what the "quality" of jobs that comprised the best jobs report in nearly 3 years? Here is the answer: Retail Trade, Education and Health, and Leisure and Hospitality, as well as Administrative Assistants, cumulatively made up more than half of the jobs gains in the month. All minimum-wage or just above paying jobs. Which is why anyone who believes that wages rose at the rate the BLS would like you to believe, may want to wait until the inevitable downward revision.

VIX Tumbles To 11 Handle, Near 3-Month Lows

Because nothing says global slowdown, oil crash, HY spread blowout, currency collapse like a (purportedly forward-looking indicator of risk) VIX with an 11 handle...

Russian Central Bank Intervention Is Losing Its Mojo, Bond Yields Crash Over 12%

The Bank of Russia this week made its heaviest currency intervention in more than a month, according to WSJ, to try to stem the escalating trend of Ruble collapse... but it's not working. Chatter of three significant interventions this week (which are quite apparent in the USDRUB chart) have had less and less positive impact on the currency and even with warnings of jail for FX speculators, the post-intervention selling continues. It appears, however, that the main pressure today is in the Russian bond market as 10Y RUB Bonds cracked 80bps higher to 12.04% yield... the pressure mounts on Putin.