• GoldCore
    01/31/2015 - 05:00
    We are witnesses to an epic failure of planning, statecraft and social justice. Regardless of where your politics be, these elements are critical for a modern globally connected economy to function....

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Mitt Romney Announces He Is Not Running For President: "Best To Give Other Leaders The Opportunity"

"After putting considerable thought into making another run for president, I’ve decided it is best to give other leaders in the Party the opportunity to become our next nominee." - Mitt Romney



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Shake Shak Opens For Trading Valued At 108x EBITDA

Presenting: the burger bubble.



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Greek Bond Yields Surge Above 19% After EU Talks

Following finance minister Varoufakis' insistence that Greece will not accept more debt (or what EU calls a "bailout") and talks with the Eurogroup chief end, Greek bond yields have surged (and prices dropped) with 3Y GGBs back over 19% - the highest since the crisis. Greek bank stocks - after yesterday's exuberant penny stock squeeze - are falling once again.



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Chicago PMI Beats But Remains Lower Year-Over-Year

Having tumbled (and missed) for two straight months, hope triumped in January and pushed Chicago PMI above expectations printing 59.4 (against 57.4 consensus). This is still the 2nd worst print since July so let's not get all excited quite yet as only 4 components rose. This is the 4th month in a row of negative YoY prints. So just to clarify - US GDP misses notably and stocks say "meh" but Chicago PMI beats and stocks smash higher on a JPY lifeboat...



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The Mexican Peso & Brazilian Real Are Collapsing

Back over 15 / USD for the first time since March 2009, the Mexican Peso is tumbling hard this morning... and the Brazilian Real is also tanking (back near 10-year lows) - no clear catalyst aside from further weakness in oil producer and EM FX sentiment.



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The "Bullard Put" Is Gone: "It Is Reasonable To Hike Rates In June Or July"

Having explained last month why he would not bail out the stock market again, (non-voting) Fed member Jim Bullard trotted out the usual vicissitudes this morning on Bloomberg TV trying to sound as upbeat and positive as possible: ECB QE is good for the US economy, low oil prices "unambiguously positive" for US, and ses unemployment below 5% in Q3. But then he unleashed the awful truth:

*BULLARD SAYS HE'D LIKE TO GET OFF ZERO RATE SOONER, REASONABLE TO EXPECT RATE RISE JUNE OR JULY

Warning that "waiting to raise rates, risks falling behind the curve," which sent Treasury yields lower and stocks into a confused frenzy of "what did he say?" as they realize that the upbeat talk is just talk and The Fed will raise rates no matter - as we noted yesterday - it's the lesser of two evils.



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Greece Slams EU Bailout-ers: "We Don't Want The $7 Billion, We Want To Rethink The Whole Program"

UPDATE: "CONSTRUCTIVE TALKS" are over: VAROUFAKIS SAYS WILL NOT ACCEPT SELF-PERPETUATING CRISIS

As Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem (of "template" foot in mouth infamy) heads to Athens for talks today, Bloomberg reports the new Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis has a clear message for his European overlords of the past: “We don’t want the 7 billion euros...We want to sit down and rethink the whole program." While this exposes the nation's banking system to further runs, yesterday's revelation that Russia could step in with financing should they need it, leaves Dijsselbloem and Shulz with less and less leverage even as Spain's chief economic advisor warns, if Greece doesn't play along, "there will be problems on all fronts."



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Q4 Annualized GDP Misses, Tumbles To 2.6% From 5.0%; Surging Personal Consumption Pulled Forward From 2015

Following last quarter's upward revised 5.0% GDP, driven higher mostly as a result of even more mandatory Obamacare taxation, Q4 GDP had nowhere else to go but down, the only question was how much. Wall Street estimated 3.0%. Moments ago we got the first estimate for Q4 GDP and it was a miss, printing at 2.6%, and nearly 50% below the Q3 annualized number. This also means that the final 2014 GDP is 2.4%, higher than the 2.2% in 2013 as well as the 2.3% in 2012.



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Crucial Employment Cost Index Growth Slows

The Employment Cost Index (ECI) has become the new black on economic fashion circles and this morning's data will likely disappoint some. While meeting expectations with a 0.6% QoQ rise, this is slower than the 0.7% QoQ growth in Q3 and what is more problematic is much of the rise was driven by  2.5% YoY rise in Natural Resources industries (which we suspect will absolutely not be there going forward given the layoffs and collapse of the Shale industry). Furthermore, the total cost of employment index was pushed higher YoY by the biggest YoY surge in "benefits" costs since March 2012.



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30Y German Bund Yield Plunges Under 1% - Record Low

"...but it can't go any lower, right?" On the heels of yesterday's German deflation and today's near-record EU wide deflation prints... and the ongoing tumble in inflation expectations post-Q€ - the rush for the safety of Bunds continues (and with it the arb-drag on US yields) as for the first time ever, 30Y German Bunds yield below 1%...



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60% Of Retail Sales Growth In Hong Kong Was Due To The iPhone 6

The sales of iPhone, which are captured in other consumer durable sales, grew on average 60%y/y since September, propelled predominately by the launch of new product. Excluding iPhones, retail sales value would have contracted almost 1%y/y in October, at the peak of the 'Occupy' movement, and expanded a more subdued 1.3%y/y during Sep-Nov 14 (see figure 1). In other words, over 60% of retail sales growth was attributable to iPhone in late 2014.



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John McCain Threatens Anti-Kissinger Protesters With Arrest, Calls Them "Low-Life Scum"

No matter how hard one tries to suppress one's feelings... sometimes they burst out at the most inopportune moments... John McCain is at it again.



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Eurozone Deflation Ties Post-Lehman Record, Worse Than Expected

With every central bank scrambling to export deflation, and with the Saudis doing everything in their power to definancialize crude as an investment asset and destroy the US shale patch, it is probably no surprise that the ECB is utterly hopeless to prevent Europe from sliding into an all out deflationary contraction, which this morning Eurostat confirmed when it reported that in January, Euro Area deflation was "worse" (assuming it is worse when consumers pay less for goods and services, which it only is if they are sinking in debt) than the -0.5% expected reading, instead sliding from -0.2% in December to -0.6% in January, which also happens to be tied for the worst deflationary print in the Euroarea history, matching the number from July 2009 when the world was reeling in the global Great Financial Crisis depression.



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Frontrunning: January 30

  • Falling Prices Spread Pain Far Across The Oil Patch (WSJ)
  • ISIS Group Claims Responsibility for Attacks That Killed 27 in Egypt (NBC)
  • Russia Unexpectedly Cuts Key Rate as Economy Eclipses Ruble (BBG)
  • Greece’s Feisty Finance Minister Tries a More Moderate Message (NYT)
  • U.S. homeownership hits 20-year low, but new households growing (Reuters)
  • Indian Banks’ Shares Plunge as Bad-Loan Provisions Surge (BBG)
  • Underground Terror Network Said to Benefit Would-Be Jihadists in Europe (WSJ)
  • Russia warns West support for Kiev could lead to 'catastrophe' (Reuters)


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