Weekend Reading: Did The Fed Just Cage The Bear?

"The Fed has a history of tricking it self into believing the economy is stronger than it really is - something that has happened a lot during this recovery. And there is reason to believe it is doing so again. If that’s the case, the Fed could be living in denial about its ability to raise interest rates...  The road we’re on is coming to an end,'”

 

The Trump Rebellion - Suicide Of The GOP... Or Rebirth?

The Trump campaign is not a hostile takeover of the Republican Party. It is a rebellion of shareholders who are voting to throw out the corporate officers and board of directors that ran the company into the ground. Only the company here is our country.

Romney: "I Am Repulsed By Trumpism... Vote For Cruz"; Trump Responds: "This Is Good For Me"

"Today, there is a contest between Trumpism and Republicanism. Through the calculated statements of its leader, Trumpism has become associated with racism, misogyny, bigotry, xenophobia, vulgarity and, most recently, threats and violence. I am repulsed by each and every one of these... a vote for Governor Kasich in future contests makes it extremely likely that Trumpism would prevail. I will vote for Senator Cruz and I encourage others to do so"

Did Jim Bullard Just Signal "Sell"?

Flip-flopping Fed President Jim Bullard has done it again. Having helped spark the recent ramp in mid-Feb with his uber-dovish comments that "tightening was unwise," he now expresses his hawkish opinion - with stocks back nearer record highs - that it would be "prudent policy to edge rates toward normal levels." Is that a "sell'?

Is This The Debt Jubilee?

The two concepts - NIRP and deficits - dovetail in a fairly terrifying way: All the new debt we take on to rekindle growth will have to be refinanced in the future. So the more we borrow now the more we’ll have to roll over then — and the bigger the impact on government budgets of an eventual rate normalization. Unless the ultimate plan is to never raise rates to old-school positive levels, in which case the world of the future is so different from that of the past that we may as well toss existing theories of market dynamics and individual freedom out the window.

Its Not The Economy Stupid, It's The Central Banks

Despite collapsing earnings expectations and weaker than expected macro data, US equity markets have 'lifted off' since mid-February erasing the entire year's losses, and all it took was the coordinated easing from most of the world's largest central banks...

What The Charts Say: A "Complacent", "Overbought" Market With 2018 Support And 2075 Resistance

In a market overtaken by central bankers, where fundamentals don't work (or work inversely because the worse the data, the greater the central bank stimulus and/or jawboning) traders are flying blind and hoping that at least technicals can provide some information. Courtesy of BofA's chief technician, Stephen Suttemier, below is a summary of what the latest charts say, and why he believes that the "overbought", "complacent" market has support around 2018-2002 and resistance is at 2075-2085.

Day Of Reckoning Looms

Stock markets are said to “discount the future.” Maybe they see something we don’t. Or maybe they are simply preparing for a more spectacular day of reckoning by drawing more mom-and-pop investors into deeper water; as always, we wait to find out.

WSJ Fires Back At Trump: "He Would Rather Walk Down Fifth Avenue And Shoot The Messenger"

"Donald Trump won’t debate his Republican rivals again but he will continue to argue on Twitter. On Thursday the businessman demanded an apology after we—“the dummies at the @WSJ Editorial Board”—accurately noted that Hillary Clinton has received about a million more votes than he has. The truth hurts, though Mr. Trump would rather walk down Fifth Avenue shooting the messenger."