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Rates 'Liftoff' Getting Closer, Goldman Warns

Recent comments from FOMC participants on the forward guidance and the appropriate timing of the first hike of the fed funds rate suggest, Goldman warns, a greater clustering of FOMC participants' views around a mid-2015 'liftoff' in rates. Similarly, private sector forecasts for the first hike are becoming more centered on mid-2015 rather than August to September.



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No Money, No Problem: You Can Now Lease An iPhone With Nothing Out Of Pocket

Subprime cars, subprime houses, and now subprime iPhones... on layaway.



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When A Hedge Fund Tells A Restaurant How To Cook

  • Olive Garden's breadsticks are part of the brand equity, as they come to every table. The breadsticks need to be of the highest quality, with a better taste and a firmer texture, and each table must receive hot breadsticks.
  • The pasta at Olive Garden must be significantly improved. It must be prepared at the proper water temperature, boiled in salted water, precisely timed to not overcook, and tossed with sauces for each dish instead of the current practice of ladling sauce on top of heaps of coagulated pasta.
  • We must rethink the amount of items from the flyer. Most fried foods are not authentically Italian and it slows service.
  • We will explore a few gluten-free options, as many consumers prefer gluten-free dishes (1) Based on extensive research and discussions with culinary experts and suppliers, we believe we can accomplish these goals at Olive Garden's current price points without hurting margins


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UK Suffers Biggest Capital Outflow Since Lehman As Scottish Vote Nears

Investors pulled $27 billion out of UK financial assets last month - the biggest capital outflow since the Lehman crisis in 2008 - as concern mounted about the economic and financial consequences if Scotland left the UK, according to Reuters. Furthermore, Morgan Stanley said daily equity flow data pointed to "some of the largest UK equity selling on record."



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S&P Slips To 4-Week Lows, Russell Red For 2014 As Rate Hike Fears Trigger Selling

With BofAML, Goldman, and now JPMorgan all bringing forward their 'liftoff' expectations for rates, US equity and bond markets are starting to quake a little. The Russell 2000 is now back in the red for 2014 and all but Trannies are red for September. The S&P is back to Aug 20 levels as 10Y yields push 15bps higher on the week to 2-month highs over 2.60%. VIX is back over 14, catching up with rates and FX volatility.



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Kerry Rocks Kasbah Caption Contest

1. Unveil strategy to "degrade and ultimately destroy" ISIS.

2. Unleash the Kerry.

3. ...

4. Declare mission accomplished.



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The Game Of Thrones & The Game Of Markets

There is a connection between modern capital markets and the NFL (and between Central Bankers and Roger Goodell). The connection is solipsism – a pathological egocentrism where reality is defined by an individual’s mental perceptions and constructs. Collective solipsism is what overwhelming Common Knowledge looks like. It’s the annihilation of an individual’s perception of reality in favor of a group perception of reality. The collective solipsism of modern markets is the most crucial game to comprehend.



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Harsh Austerity Sends Italian, Spanish Debt To Record Highs

Damn you debt-reducing austerity-that-is-blamed-for-everything-that-is-wrong-with-Europe's-triple-dip-recessionary-economy-when-it-is-the-corrupt-socialist-incompetent-politicians'-fault. Damn you to hell! Oh wait a minute:

Italy’s government debt rose to a record €2.169 trillion in July from €2.168 trillion in June, the Bank of Italy says in its public-finances supplement.
Spain total govt debt amounted to a record € 1.01 trillion in 2Q, up from € 995.9b in 1Q, Bank of Spain says; 2Q Total Govt Debt Rises to 98.9% of GDP From 97.4% in 1Q

With austerity like this, who needs to spend like a drunken sailor?



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Where ISIS Makes Its Money

President Obama's 4-pronged strategy to 'degrade and destroy' ISIS includes a 'financial attack' (according to the Treasury) as they recognize, as The Daily Signal notes, one major hurdle in the way of the 'strategy' is the brutal organization's control of oil fields in Iraq and Syria; which ISIS uses that oil wealth to help finance its terror operations. Here's how they do it...



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Congresswoman: "I'm Glad People Have This 9/11 Mentality Again"

In the wake of non-stop propaganda from politicians of both parties, as well as a mainstream media desperate for ratings, the American public is finally terrified enough to support another war in the Middle East. This is an unfortunate development... With just 6% of likely U.S. voters thinking Congress is doing a good or excellent job according to a recent Rasmussen poll, it’s no surprise to see so many of these corrupt clowns falling over one another to appear tough on ISIS, using myriad hyperbolic and Orwellian statements.



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China Daily: "Western Sanctions Will Make Moscow Back The Chinese Yuan Against The Dollar"

"The apparently long-term rupture of Russia's relations with the West offers an opportunity to the Chinese leadership to enhance its already close relationship with the Kremlin and thus turn the global geopolitical balance in its favor - not unlike former US president Richard Nixon and former secretary of state Henry Kissinger who reached out to Chairman Mao Zedong in 1972. The Russians, angry with Washington, are now more amenable to giving China wider access to their energy riches and their advanced military technology. The Western sanctions pushing Russia out of the international financial system are also making Moscow more ready and willing to back the Chinese yuan against the US dollar." - China Daily



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RANsquawk Weekly Wrap - 12th September 2014



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BofA Warns "Risk Of Selloff" After September's FOMC

While BofAML's Michael Hanson expects Yellen’s overall tone to remain dovish, market perception will be key. The combination of changes to the forward guidance language, upward drift of the dots, and any comments seen as potentially hawkish, could lead to a selloff...



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US Unveils Latest Russian Sanctions, Putin Immediately Responds That Russia Drafting Retaliation

Moments ago, as was widely preannounced, the US Treasury unveiled its latest round of Russian sanctions. While the bigger picture was well-known, here are some of the highlights:

  • U.S. SANCTIONS FOCUS ON FINANCIAL, ENERGY, DEFENSE SECTORS
  • U.S. TREASURY ADDS SBERBANK TO SANCTIONS LIST,
  • U.S. TREASURY SANCTIONS AFFECTS GAZPROM, GAZPROM NEFT, LUKOIL, ROSNEFT, AND SURGUTNEFTGAZ
  • U.S. TIGHTENS DEBT FINANCING RESTRICTIONS TO 30 DAYS

And instantly: PUTIN: GOVT DRAFTING PROPOSALS TO RETALIATE AGAINST SANCTIONS



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Schrodinger's Confidence: US Consumers Both More And Less Confident At The Same Time

Despite Gallup's poll showing consumer confidence going nowhere this year, and Bloomberg's consumer comfort level for high-income earners collapsing, the government's UMich Consumer Sentiment measure has soared to its highest since last July's exuberance (at 84.6). Take your pick which data you trust...



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