Stockman Warns Of The Imperial City's Fiscal Waterloo

"The stand by Senators Lee and Moran was much bigger than putting the latest iteration of McConnell-Care out of its misery. The move rang the bell loud and clear that the Imperial City has become fiscally ungovernable. That means there is a chamber of horrors coming. With it, an endless political and fiscal crisis that will dominate Washington for years to come. Its cause is deep and structural."

"Probably Nothing..."

Yesterday we warned of the growing anxiety in short-term Treasury-Bill markets over the looming debt-ceiling. Today, the tension has worsened with the 10/19 bill now up a shocking 13bps in 3 days leaving the curve extremely inverted around the potential debt-ceiling deadline.

Germany Blocks Defense Exports To Turkey In "Worst Crisis Since World War II"

The "worst crisis between Germany and Turkey since World War II" just took another turn worse, after German media reported that in the latest escalation to date between Berlin and Ankara, Chancellor Angela Merkel will freeze present and future Turkish orders of defense goods amid souring diplomatic relations between the two nations.

O.J.'s Free

"The juice is once again loose..."

How To Hedge Volatility With Gold... And Make Up To 92%

While some it as a yellow pebble, it seems Goldman Sachs recognizes other 'value' in gold suggesting that amid the chaotic complacency of markets, precious metal derivatives could provide an attractive broad multi-asset hedge.

The "Wipeout Scenario": 250% Losses If VIX Spikes To 20

if VIX goes from 9.60 to 18/20 in absolute values (it was approx. 40 as recently as Aug2015), and stays there for 8 / 10 days in backwardation, VIX-based ETFs may stand to lose up to 55%. Short positions on long-vol ETFs can then lose up to 250% of capital with VIX at 20.

RBC Warns Of Looming "Cocktail For Fall Volatility"

"This combination of ‘interest rate vol’ events could drive another bout of ‘taper tantrum’ into the late Summer liquidity doldrums and fresh off of the ‘synthetic tranquility’ of US equity earnings season - a cocktail for Fall Vol on the resumption of ‘policy convergence’ and ‘tightening into slowing backdrop’ fears..."

Treasury Volatility Crashes To Record Lows

Another day, another record low for volatility gauges, with Bank of America’s MOVE Index (considered Treasury Market 'VIX') falling to an unprecedented 48.26.

Why Wage Growth Will Remain Elusive

"Even if we rebuild factories here and you build plants here, they’re just not going to employ thousands of people — that just doesn’t happen.  Find a factory anywhere in the world built in the last 5 years - not many people work there.”

Is The Real Dollar Pain-Trade Lower?

Trump’s inauguration proved to be the top, and it has been nothing but downhill since then. I am actually quite mad at myself, fading this consensus trade proved to be one of the greatest trades of 2017. Yet the interesting part of this extended move? No one is getting excited about it...

Sessions: "I Will Continue Serving As Attorney General As Long As That Is Appropriate"

Following his scathing NYT interview published on Wednesday, in which Trump said he regretted appointing the Attorney General, and said would not have chosen Sessions to serve as attorney general had known Sessions would recuse himself from the investigation into Russian election meddling, on Thursday AG Sessions said he plans to continue to serve in his post "as long as that is appropriate."