Full Eurogroup Statement On Greece - Redline Comparison With Previously Rejected Statement

Just out from the Eurogroup, the final statement. Bottom line: Greece caves on pretty much everything, however it has two semantics successes: the dreaded "Troika" words has been replaced with "institutions" and "Current programme" has been changed to "Current arrangement" - surely nobody will notice. Sarcasm aside, Greece has just kicked the can for four months. Why four months? Because that's just ahead of the big Greek debt maturity.

Chinese Oil Re-Stocking Is Over: Inbound VLCCs Drop To 5-Month Lows

In October 2014, we noted the massive surge (amid a slowing economy) in VLCCs bound for China as they began rebuilding their Strategic Petroleum Reserve, buying the newly low priced crude providing 'artificial' demand not reflective of actual current activity. Crude prices continued to drop and China-bound tankers remained high. But, as Bloomberg notes, this week saw the number of supertankers heading to China drop to 62 - the lowest since September 19th (before China began its restocking efforts) - strongly suggesting that 'artificial demand' has been removed from the global oil market.

"We Messed Up Badly" Lenovo Admits Putting Tracking Software On Your PC

Meet SuperFish - Lenovo's, the world's largest computer manufacturer, pre-installed, image recognizing tracking software that monitors everything you do, and breaches web security... all for the purpose of pushing more ads in your face. After its initial approach of being completely unapologetic and dismissal, Lenovo is now groveling for forgiveness. The company’s Chief Technology Officer now says, “We messed up badly here,” and “We made a mistake.”

Eurogroup To Hold Press Conference Momentarily: Live Webcast


While the Eurogroup will supposedly present a Greek deal in a few minutes some of the key terms remains undisclosed, and somewhat unexpectedly Reuters reports that Greece will have until Monday, which is a national holiday, to list the planned measures it intends to take. It is surprising that Germany has agreed to an open-framework of this nature, which also means that once the final momerandum is available, everyone will dissect the language to find out just who folded. So while we wait, the Eurogroup's press is said to begin momentarily. Watch it live below.

Greek "Deal" Sends S&P To Record Highs, Gold Under $1200

It appears that Grexit fears were all that was left to hold back equity enthusiasm as, based on the latest (non-official) details of a Greek deal, the S&P 500 has broken to new record highs (and Dow ripped 230 points off the lows). Gold has been jettisoned en masse, back below $1200... and crude is sliding.

The 330 Billion Reasons Why The Grexit "Can" Was Kicked Down The Road

Perhaps this explained why Greece and The Eurogroup have (reportedly) come to an agreement to avoid an actual Grexit for 4 months. As Die Welt explains that Euro-area nations will face losses of up to EUR330bn as Greek outright government debt, ECB capital needs, and TARGET2 liabilities have soared in the last 2 years since the crisis last erupted...

Citigroup: "We Almost Hope Those Forecasts Are Proven Wrong"

"... we almost hope those forecasts are proven wrong. They imply a widening gap between valuations and traditional fundamental relationships. They imply a dearth of yields and spreads that will almost invariably push more and more investors into positions they would ultimately rather not take. But if the old adage that markets move in the direction that causes the most pain to the largest number of people is anything to go by, then we suspect that this is what will happen. Depressingly, our instinct is that those new forecasts are more likely too conservative than too aggressive. Longer-term, sweet dreams really aren't made of this."

US Oil Rig Count Tumbles To July 2011 Lows, Pace Slows

For the 11th week in a row (2008/9 saw 20 weeks in a row), US rig counts fell and production hit record highs. Rig counts are tracking the lagged price of oil's decline almost perfectly, with total rigs having dropped 32% from the highs. Notably last week's rig count drop was the smallest in 4 weeks (down just 48 to 1310) with oil rigs dropping 37 to 1,019. Oil prices dropped on this news on worries at the slowing pace of rig count closure.


Goldman Crushes The "Low Gas Prices Are Unequivocally Good" Meme (In 1 Simple Number)

The retail sales data proved it... The Fed admitted it... and now Goldman Sachs has proved it... there is no 'economic stimulus' benefit from low gas prices for the US consumer (it is, simply put, merely a transfer of consumption from one good to another - or worse, it is saved or used to pay for healthcare or debt). As Goldman explains so clearly in its analysis of WalMart's results, the correlation between gas prices and WalMart same-store-sales "is nearly zero."

Euro Soars After Greek Official Says Eurogroup Reaches Accord, Denied 8 Minutes Later, Then Reconfirmed

Update: according to Capital.gr, the agreement will cove a 4 not 6-month extension, is not considered a completion of current program, there will be no new austerity measures, and no new unilateral actions by Greece.

Just minutes after convening - following a few hours of backroom shuttle diplomacy, Bloomberg reports:


US equity and EURUSD markets kneejerked higher but refuse to fade the denial.

3 Things - Forward Estimates, Valuations vs. Returns, Told You So

The real issue here is that economic weakness is likely much greater than headline statistics, and the vast majority of mainstream economists, actually suggest.  Furthermore, as we have repeatedly stated in the past, the ability for the U.S. economy to withstand the global storm of deflation is vastly limited. It will be interesting to see what the Federal Reserve does next.

Eurogroup Meeting Delayed, Reportedly Due To Greeks "Sending Wrong Letter"


Finance ministers from across Europe are arriving in Brussels for the latest, most critical (until the next one) stare-down across the table at The Greeks. As Germany's Schaeuble noted somewhat pessimistically "we shall see," on the outcome of today's meeting, adding that Greece "must take seriously" previous agreements and "Europe needs mutual trust." Varoufakis on his arrival explained that he "hopes for white smoke" by the end of the day adding that "Greece has gone the extra 10 miles... and hopes EU can meet them one-fith of the way."

Beppe Grillo: "The Eurozone Chess Game Enters Its Final Stage: Germany Wins In Three Moves"

"The Eurozone chess game has entered its third and final stage. Germany wins in three moves - Euro, deflation and purchase of public debt by the ECB (QE) – and in the last few years it has found a way to maximise its profits and reduce to zero its risks as Europe’s creditor.... If we wait too long before leaving the Euro, then Germany will get checkmate and after cashing in all the benefits of our entry into the Euro, it will also cash in on the benefits of our exit."

It Begins: Goldman Cuts Q1 GDP Due To Snow

"We think that negative snowstorm effects could potentially subtract as much as half a percentage point from Q1 growth compared with a neutral baseline, although there is still plenty of time for activity to bounce back within the quarter. In light of our analysis, we reduced our Q1 GDP tracking estimate by two-tenths to +2.8%."

- Goldman Sachs

Stocks, Euro Soar As Confusion Reigns

Following "optimistic" comments from Dijsselbloem (which were couched in total uncertainty) and reports that the Eurogroup Meeting had been delayed, Stocks and EURUSD started to soar as it appears confusion reigns... or who leaked something?