This Is Not Your Father's Market

"We live in a dystopian investment world, whose markets have morphed into an Orwellian backdrop of omnipresent government intervention and manipulation that is increasingly dictated by the quant community -- who worship at the altar of prices and price momentum (and are agnostic on values)."

November Jobs Surge 211K, Higher Than Expected: December Rate Hike Looms Despite Slump In Weekly Earnings

It appears the December rate hike is now cemented following the BLS' report that November jobs rose by 211K, higher than the 200K expected, and well above Janet Yellen's "whisper" number of just 100,000 being sufficient. This follows an even stronger revision to the October number from 271K to a whopping 298K. The unemployment rate remained flat at 5.00%, in line with expectations, while hourly earnings rose 0.2% in November, just as expected.

Why This Sucker Is Going Down... Again

So how do you grow household wealth by $18 trillion in the face of these dismal real world trends? In a word, with a printing press. But what happened today is that Draghi showed he is out of tricks and Yellen confessed she is out of excuses. Yes, this sucker is going down. And this time all the misguided economics professors turned central bankers in the world will be powerless to reverse the plunge.

Previewing The "Most Important Jobs Report Ever" - What Wall Street Expects

There is a high hurdle following October's surprisingly strong gain of 271,000 jobs. On the other hand, Wall Street is confident we would have to see a significantly lower number, somewhere in the 100,000 range or even lower, — and weakness in other parts of the report, such as the unemployment rate, hourly wages and weekly hours — for the FOMC to postpone a rate hike into next year.

Germany Sends 1,200 "Support" Troops To Syria

In a 445 “for”, 146 “against” (seven abstentions) vote, German lawmakers approved the use of six Tornado reconnaissance jets, and the deployment of a frigate to help "protect" the French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle off the coast of Syria. Berlin will also send refueling aircraft and up to 1,200 military personnel.

Frontrunning: December 4

  • The Jobs Report Probably Won't Change the Fed's Mind on Liftoff (BBG)
  • U.S. authorities look for militant links to shooters in California mass slaying (Reuters)
  • Neighbors, Acquaintances Shocked That Couple Are San Bernardino Shooting Suspects (WSJ)
  • ECB Fumbles the Stimulus-Baton Hand-off, Mussing Up Fed’s Plans (WSJ)
  • OPEC Heads for Status Quo as Members Clash Over Crude Output Cut (BBG)
  • Foreigners drawn in as fear and loathing grip China's finance industry (Reuters)

OPEC Meeting Preview: Confusion, Clashes, Disappointment, And Lower Oil Prices

"There has been a bunch of headlines coming out of OPEC with each contradicting the other," says Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob. “It is difficult to trade in front of OPEC - the general consensus is for nothing, but when we get a soundbite that creates a bit of a reaction." However, once the OPEC meeting announces that, sorry Venezuela but nothing changes, expect the early upward bias to crude prices to promptly reverse.

Futures Rebound On Hope Today's "Most Important Ever" Jobs Number Will Not "Draghi" The Market

Optimism in US equity futures appears to have returned, and as of this moment US equity futures are higher by 9 points to 2060 as the attention shifts to what, according to BofA, is truly the most important ever. It is unclear just how the algos would take a second consecutive major disappointment in a row: should today's NFP print be well below the 200,000 consensus, December rate hike odd will tumble and the EUR will surge even more after declining modestly from overnight highs just below 1.10, leading to even more losses in European equities and spilling over to the US. 

DMV Releases Photo Of "Radicalized" Mass Shooter After Weapons Trove Found In House

Update: DMV releases driver's license photo of Farook

In a press briefing on Thursday, San Bernardino officials catalogued the weapons and ammo discovered in the vehicle and home of Syed Rizwan Farook and his wife Tashfeen Malik who killed 21 and wounded 14 on Wednesday. Additionally, CNN (citing "sources") says Farook was likely "radicalized." The pair were "well equipped" and could have staged another attack, police say.

"America's Leadership Just Doesn't Seem To Get It"

When will America’s half-witted elite running the Pentagon and the State Department see the light and acknowledge that perhaps the US lacks the qualifications, or resources, to run, or strongly influence, geopolitics throughout Planet Earth?

Presenting The Mechanics Of "Liftoff" Or, How The Fed Actually Hikes Rates

How would a Fed hike be transmitted? To the uninitiated, it might seem as though Janet Yellen snaps her fingers or twitches her nose and just like that, banks and money markets price in the 25bps. But contrary to Haruhiko Kuroda's characterization of central bankers as fairy tale protagonists, it's not as simple as waving a magic wand and in the US, the whole show runs through Bill Dudley's Open Market Trading Desk at the New York Fed.

Hong Kong Housing Bubble Suffers Spectacular Collapse As Sales Plunge 42% To Record Low

Hong Kong's once-upon-a-time raging housing bubble just got its last rites after November home sales sank to a record low as an imminent interest rate in the US this month scared away prospective buyers. According to Land Registry data, reported by SCMP, November saw 2,826 registered residential transactions, down 14.4% from October and 41.7% less than in November last year. This was the lowest print in the history of the series.

How Money Disappears In A Fractional-Reserve Money System

Most experts are of the view that the massive monetary pumping by the US central bank during the 2008 financial crisis saved the US and the world from another Great Depression. On this the Federal Reserve Chairman at the time Ben Bernanke is considered the man that saved the world. Bernanke in turn attributes his actions to the writings of Professor Milton Friedman who blamed the Federal Reserve for causing the Great Depression of 1930s by allowing the money supply to plunge by over 30 percent. Careful analysis will however show that it is not a collapse in the money stock that sets in motion an economic slump as such, but rather the prior monetary pumping that undermines the pool of real funding that leads to an economic depression.