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St. Louis Fed's "Not In Labor Force" Data Is Now Officially Off The Chart

The comedy continues: the April "Not in labor force" seasonally adjusted print: 88,419,000. And yet, the maximum reading permitted by St Louis Fed Not in Labor Force (LNS15000000) graph: 88,000,000. The data has now officially dropped off the chart. No further commentary necessary.

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WTI < $100

WTI crude just broke $100 (traded $99.99) - an almost 3 month low having dropped its most in the last 3 days since mid-December 2011. Remember: it has long been known that Obama, pardon Bernanke, will not allow THE NEW QE until a barrel of the black gold cost double digits. He just got his wish.

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The Addbacks: +22K From Seasonal; +206K From Birth Death

The seasonally adjusted non-farm payroll number rose by 115K in April. That's great: it was a miss but such is life. Here is what the unadjusted data that led to this number says. The seasonal addback in April was +22K, a rapid break from the last 3 years when April saw a negative seasonal adjustment following the traditional huge positive adjustments in the January-March period, which in turn means that the record warm winter give back has not even started! As a result, the seasonal addbacks in 2012 are now a massive 4,499,000 jobs: jobs that have not been added but are expected to materialize based on historical seasonal patterns. And just as importantly, in April the Birth-Death addition was a whopping 206K, far greater than the comparable addition in 2010 and 2011, and much bigger than expected, which brings the year total now to a +20K cumulative total. It means, that by rough estimation, the reality is that in April the unadjusted, unbirth/deathed number was a decline of -111,000, and likely far worse once the true weather adjustments start taking place. This number is corroborated by the Household Survey which dropped by 169,000. So much for the recovery.

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Who Leaked the NFP This Time?

Presented with little comment except to note that in the minute or so before the actual sanctioned release from the dark little room at the BLS, S&P 500 e-mini futures slumped by 7 pts, surged and then slumped again by 7pts - double the entire overnight range in those 30-45 seconds. So after all the efforts to maintain the integrity of the NFP release, it seemed someone knew something early...

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People Not In Labor Force Soar By 522,000, Labor Force Participation Rate Lowest Since 1981

it is just getting sad now. In April the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000.  This is the highest on record. The flip side, and the reason why the unemployment dropped to 8.1% is that the labor force participation rate just dipped to a new 30 year low of 64.3%.

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US Added 115,000 Jobs In April, Huge Miss Of Expectations; Unemployment Rate 8.1%

Expectations were for an increase in non farm payrolls of 160,000, and a 8.2% unemployment rate. We got +115,000, and 130,000 privates. Unemployment rate at 8.1%, lowest since January 2009. Schrodinger is alive and well.

More shortly

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How To Predict Today's Non-Farm Payroll Number With Planck Constant Precision

With everyone and their mother scrambling to come up with some utterly meaningless number (why is it meaningless? Because From January to March seasonal adjustments have "added" 4,477,000 jobs, and the monthly error interval is 100,000) to game the headline, which algos just can't wait for to send the market soaring (on either "virtuous circle" or "More QE" signals), here is our best suggestion on how to predict what the US economy will do all the way to the Planck constant. And at a sunk cost of only $24.99 to US taxpayers for bailed out US bank strategists, we are confident that expense committee will be able to say no to these oh so very critical products for the new "alive or dead" normal.

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Overnight Sentiment: Traders Look Past Latest European Disappointment, Toward US Jobs

Here is what happened in Europe overnight, and why the market sentiment is already negative in advance of an NFP number which many are watching closely as a miss of expectations will cement the thesis that the US economy has now rolled over and will likely need more nominally dilutive aid from central planners to regain its upward slope:

  • Spain Services PMI for April 42.1 – lower than expected. Consensus 45.4. Previous 46.3.
  • Italian Services PMI for April 42.3 – lower than expected. Consensus 43.7. Previous 44.3.
  • France Services PMI for April 45.2 – lower than expected. Consensus 46.4. Previous 46.4.
  • Germany Service PMI for April 52.2 – lower than expected. Consensus 52.6. Previous 52.6.
  • Euro-area Service PMI for April 46.9 – lower than expected. Consensus 47.9. Previous 47.9.

And while the data was bad enough to send European stocks and US stock futures lower, the latest meme spreading as the first US traders walk in, is one of reNEWed QE expectations already, if a very weak one for now.

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Frontrunning: May 4

  • Japan has 54 nuclear reactors, but as of Saturday, not one of them will be in operation (Guardian)
  • US Readies Proposal to Clamp Down on Fracking (Reuters)
  • California pension fund (CALSTRS) sues Wal-Mart, alleges bribery (Reuters)
  • New Ripples for Gupta Case: Goldman Share Price, Volume Began Climbing Even Before Rajaratnam Trades (WSJ)
  • China says blind dissident can apply to study abroad (Reuters)
  • China paper calls Chen a U.S. pawn; envoy is a "troublemaker" (Reuters)
  • Samsung’s New Galaxy S Phone Raises Heat on Apple Iphone (Bloomberg)
  • Draghi predicts 2012 eurozone recovery  (FT)
  • Tumbling Home Ownership Marks a Return to Normal (Bloomberg)
  • Zuckerberg Facebook IPO to Make Him Richer Than Ballmer (Bloomberg)
  • SEC probes Chesapeake and its chief (FT)

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Looking Ahead To Today's Noisy Non-Farm Payroll Number

Here is what Wall Street expects will be announced at 8:30 am Eastern today:

Barclays Capital
Deutsche Bank             +175K
Goldman Sachs            +125K
JP Morgan            +145K
UBS                    +170K
Morgan Stanley            +130K
HSBC                    +170K   
Bank of America +155K

And while as usual the actual number will be largely meaningless, and is merely an indication of our headline chasing nature since as the BLS itself says the error interval is +/- 100,000, a few hnndred purely statistical jobs will make or break the market and send it soaring on either "virtuous circle" expectations, or on NEW QE coming back with a bang.

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The Unabridged And Illustrated Federal Budget For Dummies - Part 4: Entitlements

In this final part of the four-part series from The Heritage Foundation, we look at the scale of the entitlement society we live in relative to the Federal Budget. Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security spending is set to explode, placing enormous pressure on other priorities such as defense and the rest of the budget.

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Guest Post: The 5 Most Influential Figures In U.S. Clean Energy

As Oilprice.com embarks on its Top 5 series, we thought it expedient to begin with our take on the key figures shaping and influencing U.S. renewable energy efforts, not least because the issue of energy security is being prioritized in campaigning ahead of U.S. presidential elections. In considering from the numerous choices for these top five slots, we take into account a number of variables, including investment in renewable energy, the ability to influence policy and shape public opinion, and advocacy efforts. This goes well beyond simply counting coin – it is about innovation, imagination, vision, risk and patience. Arguably, these people will play an important role in your life and leisure, for better or worse.

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