Rare Earth Mania And China/US Trade Spat 2.0?

We doubt that many have heard of it, or know what it’s used for, but the price of Praseodymium-Neodymium - a rare earth element - has been on a tear, up 43% ytd. And, if this is the start of another "rare earth" frenzy like that seen in 2011, it is about to go much, much higher.

The Dangerous Season Begins Now

The period of seasonal weakness in the Russell 2000 Index is highlighted in dark blue on the chart. It begins on July 15 and ends on October 27.

AMZN Slides After Hours On Report Of FTC Probe

Just last week we noted that the one entity that could 'out-Amazon' Amazon - the US government - was beginning to ask if Bezos' company was too big? Tonight we got our first glimpse as the FTC sent a shot across the world's 2nd richest man's bow, probing allegations of illegal discounting.

The New "Supply-Side Economics" Fueling Asset Bubbles

No, we are not talking about President Reagan’s supply-side economics... We now have a new kind of supply-side economics, just the opposite of Reagan’s, which effectively restricts, removes and shifts the supply curve to the left, increasing prices and fueling asset bubbles in risk-free bonds, stocks, and housing.

Stockman Warns Of The Imperial City's Fiscal Waterloo

"The stand by Senators Lee and Moran was much bigger than putting the latest iteration of McConnell-Care out of its misery. The move rang the bell loud and clear that the Imperial City has become fiscally ungovernable. That means there is a chamber of horrors coming. With it, an endless political and fiscal crisis that will dominate Washington for years to come. Its cause is deep and structural."

"Probably Nothing..."

Yesterday we warned of the growing anxiety in short-term Treasury-Bill markets over the looming debt-ceiling. Today, the tension has worsened with the 10/19 bill now up a shocking 13bps in 3 days leaving the curve extremely inverted around the potential debt-ceiling deadline.

Germany Blocks Defense Exports To Turkey In "Worst Crisis Since World War II"

The "worst crisis between Germany and Turkey since World War II" just took another turn worse, after German media reported that in the latest escalation to date between Berlin and Ankara, Chancellor Angela Merkel will freeze present and future Turkish orders of defense goods amid souring diplomatic relations between the two nations.

O.J.'s Free

"The juice is once again loose..."

How To Hedge Volatility With Gold... And Make Up To 92%

While some it as a yellow pebble, it seems Goldman Sachs recognizes other 'value' in gold suggesting that amid the chaotic complacency of markets, precious metal derivatives could provide an attractive broad multi-asset hedge.

The "Wipeout Scenario": 250% Losses If VIX Spikes To 20

if VIX goes from 9.60 to 18/20 in absolute values (it was approx. 40 as recently as Aug2015), and stays there for 8 / 10 days in backwardation, VIX-based ETFs may stand to lose up to 55%. Short positions on long-vol ETFs can then lose up to 250% of capital with VIX at 20.

RBC Warns Of Looming "Cocktail For Fall Volatility"

"This combination of ‘interest rate vol’ events could drive another bout of ‘taper tantrum’ into the late Summer liquidity doldrums and fresh off of the ‘synthetic tranquility’ of US equity earnings season - a cocktail for Fall Vol on the resumption of ‘policy convergence’ and ‘tightening into slowing backdrop’ fears..."

Treasury Volatility Crashes To Record Lows

Another day, another record low for volatility gauges, with Bank of America’s MOVE Index (considered Treasury Market 'VIX') falling to an unprecedented 48.26.

Why Wage Growth Will Remain Elusive

"Even if we rebuild factories here and you build plants here, they’re just not going to employ thousands of people — that just doesn’t happen.  Find a factory anywhere in the world built in the last 5 years - not many people work there.”