It appears - judging by today's shenanigans - that good news for Main Street (rising employment costs) is bad news (for stocks), though obviously there are other factors; but tomorrow's payrolls data is the last best hope before the Fed finishes its taper for them to pull a 'data-driven' U-turn out of the bag. Consensus is for a drop from last month's exuberance at 288k to 230k (with Barclays slightly cold and Deutsche slightly hot). The fear, for market bulls, is that the print is anti-goldilocks now - not bad enough to provide excuses for lower-longer Fed rates; and not high enough to justify the hockey-stick of miraculous H2 growth priced into stocks. Average S&P gains on NFP Friday are 0.5% but recently have become more noisy.
If the worst Ebola outbreak in recorded history reaches the United States, federal law permits "the apprehension and examination of any individual reasonably believed to be infected with a communicable disease". These individuals can be "detained for such time and in such manner as may be reasonably necessary". In other words, the federal government already has the authority to round people up against their will, take them to detention facilities and hold them there for as long as they feel it is "reasonably necessary". Think that is a little extreme, think again. As NBC reports, Emory University Hospital, Atlanta will be treating a patient with Ebola in the next several days.
While the latest ceasefire between Israel and Hamas will come and go, something far more insidious is taking place in Gaza : as the Daily Beast reports, "The Israeli military, relentlessly and methodically, is driving people out of the 3-kilometer (1.8 mile) buffer zone it says it needs to protect against Hamas rockets and tunnels. According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the buffer zone eats up about 44 percent of Gaza’s territory."
With the world waiting for tomorrow's "most important data of the year" payrolls report as their signal to BTFD or follow Yellen Capital's recommendation and "sell," we thought it perhaps of note that this morning's Challenger jobs data was extremely weak. Layoffs in July surged 49% (the most since May 2012) to 46,887. This is the 2nd most layoffs in 11 months. The heaviest layoffs were in the Western region and also most concentrated in the auto industry.
If you're a woman looking for some fun... we strongly urge you to avoid Turkey. Turkey's Deputy Prime Minister Bulent Arinc has some strong opinions on the female of the species. First, on Monday, he exclaimed women needed to be "morally upright" and "not laugh out loud in public." And now, the senior Turkish minister, that some women "don’t have self control and can’t stop themselves from climbing up a pole." Of course his actions sparked an avalanche of social media posts of women laughing-out-loud and on-the-pole... which is ironic given that Twitter reports that Turkey accounts for 43% of all global requests for content removal.
For reasons that have no rational explanations at this time, the US and Europe have embarked on a concerted program to demonize Putin, ostracize Russia, and bring the world as close to a major conflict as it's been since the Cold War, a time hardly memorable to many in the current crop of our elected officials. A dangerous dynamic is brewing between the West and Russia/Putin. We are seeing a rush to war very similar to the one that led up to Saddam's ouster, but this time, we have much less justification (hard to believe) and the opponent is tremendously more capable. There is little sense in the course the West is currently pursuing, little to gain, and much to lose. The main conclusion here is that not only is the US poking the bear, but it is doing so with increasing frequency and upping the ante dangerously with each step.
Yes, yes, we know: soon everyone will be driving a Tesla, and, perhaps, sooner Tesla will build its much-hyped, and so critical for its business model Gigafactory (although shouldn't it be non-GIGA to go with non-GAAP... about which it had this to say: "In June, we broke ground just outside Reno, Nevada on a site that could potentially be the location for the Gigafactory. Consistent with our strategy to identify and break ground on multiple sites, we continue to evaluate other locations in Arizona, California, New Mexico and Texas."). In the meantime, and just as the biggest wealth effect-creating (for the 0.1%) stock market of all time appears to be ending, here is Tesla's quarter, and last few years, in three gigacharts.
The deer is back...
Americans are so broke...
One man is dead and one man critical after a 59-year-old employee of Chicago tech firm ArrowStream shot the company's CEO and then turned the weapon on himself and committed suicide. Chicago Police stated that "he was despondent over the fact that he got demoted." The alleged shooter, Anthony DeFrances, CTO for the firm, had worked for the company since 2001. As Fox reports, the company’s CEO, Steven LaVoie, 54, of LaGrange, was in critical condition at Northwestern Memorial Hospital, after being shot in the head and stomach. Sadly, as small cap stocks come under pressure and the endless flow of hot money into tech startups slows (as it has done before), we fear this episode could well repeat all over the country.
"What is the matter with us? Why can't we - especially our financial leaders - get it? Too much demos? Are we ruled by the Sun, the NY Post, and the Roman circus?Dropping back to earth from 10,000 meters - unfortunately, not high enough to be safe - the Japanese yen and the Dollar Index in general went wild this past week rising from comatose - straight lining almost - seemingly out of nowhere. It wasn't actually the Japanese industrial production coming in at minus 3.3% instead of the forecasted minus 1.2% that was such a surprise. We and many other analysts have been saying the Japanese economy was acting worse than it did in 1997 when they last hiked the sales tax, but the authorities everywhere said nothing, there seem to be no vigilantes of any sort. This is not the 1970's or the 1980's, we don't call an idiotic policy by its name (with money, that is). Zero Hedge can rant on but no one follows them or, more important, does a real analysis of the situation."