madhedgefundtrader's blog

The road to ruin ahead of us is clearly laid out. US debt is about to exceed 100% of GDP for the first time since WWII. By 2020, the Treasury will have to pay a staggering $5 trillion a year just to roll over maturing debt. The capital markets will emerge as the sole source of any fiscal discipline, with the return of the “bond vigilantes.” Will China and Japan demand a retreat from our $150 billion a year commitments in Iraq and Afghanistan to protect their bond holdings? (TBT), (TMV).

Should I jump on to a moving train? Half of global demand for the red metal is now coming from hedge funds. Friends with warehouses stashed around the country with copper ingots stacked to the ceiling. Next stop: $6 a pound? (CU), (JJC), (ECH), (FCX).

What a Year It Was! If you followed my pieces in Zero Hedge during 2010 you made a fortune. Nailing it with every asset class allocation. Only one small hickey from a short yen position.

The electric battery gets its first real makeover in 152 years. Immense amounts of money are being made with the new battery technologies. Electric cars will take over 15% of the global car market, or 7.5 million units by 2020. At stake is nothing less than the viability of two economic systems. Will the operating instructions will come in English—or Mandarin. (BYDDF), (SQM), (XIDE)

What would Nenner do with new money he received today? What are the cleanest trades out there? It’s very simple. He would sell the next two point rally in bonds through buying the (TBT). He would buy any dips in the grains, crude and the dollar against the Euro. He would sell any breakdown in the Australian dollar. Finally, he would be laying on big shorts in the Japanese yen right now. En exclusive interview with The Mad Hedge Fund Trader on Hedge Fund Radio.

Want to make a killing in a companies manufacturing a paint that will turn your home into an energy source? How about diet pills made out of stem cells? How to turn $12k into $1.65 million trading from your dorm room. Cashing in on short opportunities in the penny stock market. An exclusive interview with penny stock trader Tim Sykes on Hedge Fund Radio.

After the dotcom bust of 2000, these bad boys spent nearly a decade in the penalty box, shunned by the investing world as the poster boys for wild excess. During this time, cash balances doubled, free cash flows soared, outstanding shares shrank, and multiples fell to a tenth of their bubblicious peaks.
The lessons of the bubble made them ultra conservative in their capital spending, which will lead to product shortages and much higher prices in any recovery. There are short squeezes developing for a whole range of tech components. (CSCO), (IBM), (JNPR), (CSCO), (JDSU), (XLK), (QQQQ), (ROM).

The tax compromise between the President and the Republican leadership has led to a wholesale rerating of the Treasury market. Massive, short term government stimulus is working far better than imagined or publicized. Needless to say, this is a hugely positive backdrop for stocks.

Come join me for lunch at the Mad Hedge Fund Trader’s Global Strategy Update, which I will be conducting in Chicago on Tuesday, December 28, 2010 at a Monroe Street Venue. I’ll be giving you my 2011 view on stocks, bonds, currencies, commodities, precious metals, and real estate. A chance to meet me in person and praise me for my brilliance, or berate me for my ignorance. Or both.

Look at any international comparison of taxes to GDP, and one can always find the United States at the bottom of the table. The average amount of tax paid by the top 400 US tax payers came to under 17%, less than half the maximum Federal rate of 35%. Why Warren Buffet pays a much lower tax rate than his secretary. My plan for balancing the budget.

The vehicle that will upend the auto market in 2011. Aiming for 10% of the global car market by 2020, or some 5 million units. Tearing up the ball room at the San Francisco Auto Show. Don’t try looking for the tail pipe. PG&E is offering a special Plug-in-Vehicle electricity rate at a 92% discount. What will these cars be worth when oil hits $150 a barrel again? Giveaway price, free fuel, free maintenance. Hmmmmm.

A victory lap for the Armageddon crowd. The hard core faithful who suffered a 20-year bear market in hard assets are now wearing better tailored suits.

The Renaissance woman of the international investment newsletter scene gives a wide ranging interview on Hedge Fund Radio. Bullish on the US dollar, despite the vast majority of traders happily positioning for the decline and fall of Uncle Buck. It’s simply a matter of betting on the simultaneous strengthening of the US economy and a slowdown in Europe. Cautious on Brazil, but Chile, Poland, Thailand, and India look hot. The Yuan can only go up. Searching for value in Greece. (EWZ) (UUP), (EUO), (PT), (EWZ), (TF), (PLND), (ECH), (PIN), (FXI), (GIFD), (PCY),

As long as the Chinese government hates foreign hedge funds and speculators, no one will make a killing buying the yuan. (CYB).

Don’t rush in the last year’s trade, but the Ausie still looks great for the long term.