AVFMS's blog
15 Nov 2012 – “ Are You Gonna Go My Way? ” (Lenny Kravitz, 1993)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/15/2012 11:57 -0500The US crashing close yesterday was cushioned in Europe by better than expected (backward-looking) GDP figures in Germany and France. EZ in recession nevertheless. Limited fall-out, albeit lower (equity) levels tested. Periphery okay’ish, then good on better Italian GDP. Spain tag along with limited own dynamics, mainly trailing Risk assessment. EGBs difficult to move lower from here. Watching the US. Someone. Please. Show the way.
"Are You Gonna Go My Way? " (Bunds 1,34% +0; Spain 5,89% -3; Stoxx 2459% -0,6%; EUR 1,279 +50)
14 Nov 2012 – “ Way Down ” (Elvis Presley, 1977)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/14/2012 12:03 -0500See-sawing – and still looking for direction. Open weaker, in line with the US close. Some exuberance ahead of the Italian auction, despite negative figures. Awakening that nothing was justifying this. Re-correction while awaiting the US take of things. With the US opening flattish plus, Europe had a light lift and started tagging along, tick for tick, stuck in a loop. Some more European gloomy news to end the day. Way Down. For the moment mostly an equity move. And cut.
"Way Down" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,92% +9; Stoxx 2475% -0,8%; EUR 1,274 +20)
13 Nov 2012 – “ That’s The Way ” (Led Zeppelin, 1970)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/13/2012 11:58 -0500As Greek discussions overnight revealed a spat between Europe and the IMF, and given yet another closing slump in the US, Risk started on a weak footing with Risk nearing Friday lows, before being ramped up by rumours, showered again and finally supported by the US opening in negative, albeit tame manner, before moving into positive territory and taking everything along. Given the noon despair, the afternoon relief seems…exuberant. Especially as the US still lead the way.
"That's The Way" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,83% -5; Stoxx 2494% +0,8%; EUR 1,272 +1)
12 Nov 2012 – “ Show Me The Way ” (Peter Frampton, 1975)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/12/2012 11:54 -0500Rather quiet. Verdict still out, whether we’ll get a real rebound or whether the last days were already the dead cat bounce, before heading lower. Periphery on the soft side, but with restricted own dynamics and trailing general Risk sentiment. Waiting. For the US to show the way. Or something to happen.
"Show Me The Way" (Bunds 1,34% unch; Spain 5,88% +7; Stoxx 2473% -0,3%; EUR 1,271 unch)
Shuffle Rewind 05-09 Nov " Wake Up " (Rage Against The Machine, 1992)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/11/2012 05:18 -0500Well, after the Great Disconnect last week, next to the Great Pumpkin, and Sandy, we had Election week and suddenly the great Wake-Up Call. Fiscal Cliff was suddenly all the rage and ramped up equities (disconnect) were beaten flat by bonds.
"Wake Up" (Bunds 1,34% -11; Spain 5,81% +17; Stoxx 2481 -2,4%; EUR 1,271 -130)
09 Nov 2012 – “ No More ” (Duff McKagan’s Loaded, 2009)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/09/2012 11:57 -0500Europe had wanted a rebound, tried to hold on, panicked, sold off, triggered stops – and recovered as the US, although not rebounding fast and furious, at least held the line. EGB running a little out of steam, although August levels were traded again in Bunds. Periphery eventually tracking Risk, but with no own dynamic. Need to see how things close tonight. No More.
"No More" (Bunds 1,34% -2; Spain 5,81% -3; Stoxx 2481% +0,1%; EUR 1,271)
08 Nov 2012 – “ Bop 'Til You Drop ” (Rick Springfield, 1984)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/08/2012 12:04 -0500Hmmm… Initial rebound after yesterday’s bashing was rather modest, settling on a bit better and awaiting US input. Spain overdid its auction, which looked just good in the sense of being able to say it sold a new bond for size – to its dealers. ECB, happy to have provided the idea of OMT to save the world from simple panic, now going pessimistic (in non-panicky way). It’s just soft out there… It’s the economy, Stupid! And it is weak.
"Bop 'Til You Drop " (Bunds 1,36% -2; Spain 5,84% +16; Stoxx 2479% +0,1%; EUR 1,275)
07 Nov 2012 – “ Pinball Wizard ” (The Who, 1969)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/07/2012 11:48 -0500Exuberant start (Who knows why?), flat lunch (made more sense…), dismal afternoon (to say the least). EGBs ramped up, as the reality of the last days’ figures kicked in. And suddenly everyone woke up and saw… and bonds were right. Tommy, "See Me, Feel Me".
"Pinball Wizard" (Bunds 1,38% -5; Spain 5,68% +4; Stoxx 2486 -1,8%; EUR 1,276)
06 Nov 2012 – “ Elected ” (Mr Bean & Smear Campaign, 1992)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/06/2012 12:00 -0500 Markets have found a good excuse to be on hold. Elections. No real US figures and a tendency to ignore European ones. No shoe dropping means upside, a little. Core EGBs rather firm nevertheless, for choice. Periphery, in absence of news, trading back and forth, so better today. EZ Q4 growth looks like stalling with a catch-up of a more lenient summer. More to come.
"Elected " (Bunds 1,43% +1; Spain 5,64% -9; Stoxx 2513 +0.5%; EUR 1,281)
05 Nov 2012 – “ Nothing Really Matters ” (Madonna, 1999)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/05/2012 12:08 -0500Nothing really mattered… Eventually. Europe correcting Friday’s excessive optimism, in line with the US, treading water ahead of the elections. Still, the Periphery remained under (controlled) pressure with Spain cornering most, if not all negative headlines today – ahead of Thursday’s auction. 10 YRS periphery backing up to (selective) symbolic levels of 5% and 5.75% (damn’ near 6%).
Shuffle Rewind 29 Oct-02 Nov " Where Is My Mind? " (Pixies, 1988)
Submitted by AVFMS on 11/04/2012 06:25 -0500We had ended the week on Fri 26 being “On the Road to Nowhere”, which essentially wasn’t that wrong a call, as markets got stuck on Sandy’s path.
So, as last week: Nothing new. Spailout OMT still not in play – and might not be this year's business. Officially. Hmmm... Yeah. Sure. We'll see. Greece, haggling not over.
Big Disconnect between Risk and Reality, Equities and Bonds.
Shuffle Rewind 22-26 Oct " Road To Nowhere " (Talking Heads, 1985)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/27/2012 07:20 -0500Uhhhh. It just couldn’t last. Risk had been pushed higher and higher in anticipation, but a combination of reality-check, rather unsettling Q3 earnings and renewed Spanish jitters just made players come down hard from their previous week’s high flying exercise.
Nothing new.
Spailout OMT still not in play. Greece, haggling not over. Earnings rather bad. PMIs dismal. Central Banks on hold, as everything is on the table, at least for the moment.
26 Oct 2012 – “ Doom and Gloom ” (The Rolling Stones, 2012)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/26/2012 10:57 -0500If it wasn’t because the government sponsorship doping Q3 US GDP, we wouldn’t have much on the bright side.
European equities still desperate to shoot up. Feels like too many fickle shorts and too many uncomfortable longs at the same time.
Markets uneasy after round-tripping back to OMT / QE unleash levels and no follow-up stimuli to be seen.
25 Oct 2012 – “ Karma Police ” (Radiohead, 1997)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/25/2012 11:07 -0500Puh… Why don’t we just wait for Apple? They might pitch a maxi iPhone 6? Or so…
Otherwise, rather Bad Karma day.
Flat start, bullish morning, refreshing afternoon. Nothing concrete or fundamental, so it’s a spiritual thing.
24 Oct 2012 – “ Planet Earth ” (Duran Duran, 1981)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/24/2012 11:02 -0500Might have missed something today .
The weakness after the US close and soft sentiment figures understood.
The mid-morning change in mind and subsequent rebound seems a bit puzzling here.
PMIs rather bad, the rest not good enough…
