AVFMS's blog
23 Oct 2012 – “ Lights Out ” (UFO, 1977)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/23/2012 11:09 -0500Uuuhh. Yesterday a heart attack and today Lights Out? Then again, markets went up seamlessly with no trigger and can thus slide the same way.
AAPL will need to come up with a helluva surprise mini iPad that does the cooking and bring the kids to school to turn around things overnight.
Spain situation still by far not settled enough to last without some real interventions / decisions.
22 Oct 2012 – “ Hurricane Heart Attack ” (The Warlocks, 2002)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/22/2012 11:03 -0500Mostly boring.
European equity resilience seems surprising, given the otherwise gloomier mood. No news still played out as being good news and even catch-up to US levels seems a doubtful explanation.
Beats me.
Shuffle Rewind 15-19 Oct " Lucy In The Sky with Diamonds " (The Beatles, 1967)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/21/2012 04:32 -0500This week was more spaced out with pessimism followed by Spain and equities ripping higher on no news, at least nothing major nor new.
So we’ll dedicate the week to the Fab Fours’ song, which title’s abbreviation has always been linked to substance abuse.
Just be careful when coming down…
19 Oct 2012 – “ Space Truckin' ” (Deep Purple, 1972)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/19/2012 10:54 -0500Spacy week, though… Song pick of yesterday’s said it all. Somehow, things have spun out of control and the rocket started stalling and then drifting into the void…
Poor Major Tom left the capsule too early.
Regional elections in Spain over the weekend. As Rajoy denies there’s any pressure to seek help, BONOs slide. Damned if you don’t; damned if you do…
Interesting to see Core EGBs’ only muted reaction to the fading Risk sentiment, though (Bunds and UST still +15 on the week).
18 Oct 2012 – “ Space Oddity (Major Tom) ” (David Bowie, 1969)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/18/2012 10:55 -0500First “decent” Spanish auction in ages, decent being just normal, if not even boring. In absence of hard facts, outside the hypnosis trick “All will be well! Believe me…", I’d like to remain on the cautious side, though.
On EU decisisons, it could look like Good Cop / Bad Cop act, if it wasn’t clear that the players actually mean what they are saying.
Won't be EZ...
17 Oct 2012 – “ Rocket Ride ” (Ace Frehley / KISS, 1977)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/17/2012 10:59 -0500European Risk remains buoyant (unlike in the US), but the question is whether Moody’s upholding Spain a tick above Junk is really worth a 30bp plus relief rally?
16 Oct 2012 – “ Wild Is The Wind ” (Bon Jovi, 1988)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/16/2012 11:01 -0500Hmmm… Bunds getting trashed by equities and Spailout; Spain getting a lift on the latter, but a break from Greek Troika news and German back pedalling.
Spain better, but had lost 20 bp just yesterday.
Equities stopping out and squeezing. Credit ripping tighter.
Risk On, but not everywhere. Wild...
15 Oct 2012 – “ Blue Monday ” (Nouvelle Vague, 2006)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/15/2012 10:58 -0500European equities trying to decouple from EGBs and US equities, trying to trade “No news is good news”.
Low action day.
Short term trading strategy buy Spain on weekend bail-out hopes and resell rapidly might need to be deepened. Not much to chew on eventually.
Shuffle Rewind 08-12 Oct " Sleeping Satellite " (Tasmin Archer, 1992)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/14/2012 06:00 -0500Particularly light on hard data, take away from this week’s action was reduced volatility in the EGB world (unlike rather more jumpy and eventually depressed equities).
After rainy weeks, better weeks, we pretty much had a rather sleepy week.
12 Oct 2012 – “ Sleepy Time Time ” (Cream, 1966)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/12/2012 11:08 -0500Stronger Periphery trapping European equities, with the latter dragged down by US apathy.
Risk adverseness factors (equities – Periphery - EUR) decoupling.
US equities seem utterly tired.
Somehow the last months’ rally ahead of QE has tired everyone and since delivery every step seems sooooo heavy.
11 Oct 2012 – “ Jump ” (Van Halen, 1983)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/11/2012 11:29 -0500Stronger Periphery close will be the usual opportunity for politicians to rant about the lack of clout of rating agencies.
Good Jump in Risk appetite. Question is how far. Lack of absence of negative news, or better, markets simply ignoring the latter, doesn’t make for a convincing bullish rebound.
I’d say: We won’t get fooled again! European Bull trap.
Spanish bonds' ECB haircut now hinges once and for all on DBRS
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/10/2012 17:21 -050010 Oct 2012 – “ She Went Quietly ” (Charlie Winston, 2011)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/10/2012 11:01 -0500Eerily quiet after yesterday’s post-ECOFIN cacophony…
No real take-away today: sometimes you need a breather and everyone agrees.
09 Oct 2012 – “ Wall Of Denial ” (Stevie Ray Vaughan, 1989)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/09/2012 11:02 -0500Key take-aways from today were: The IMF is gloomy, so is Draghi. Banking Union is months away. ESM and OMT ready to go, but no one wants that first dance. Spain is analyzing.
Oh, and an iPhone is just that. A phone.
Nothing new, nowhere.
Didn't get fooled again yesterday, but still facing denial today...
08 Oct 2012 – “ Won't Get Fooled Again ” (The Who, 1971)
Submitted by AVFMS on 10/08/2012 10:59 -0500Some correction of Friday’s Bull trap: European Risk Off, EGB credit torsion and weaker equities.
Doubtful whether any fireworks will come out of the ECOFIN meeting.
Seems to be more about maintaining the relative market quietness and status-quo.
