Blogs

I still think the best course of action is not to fight the tape, and of course, don't become fodder for the bulls.

The banking/ hedge fund/ private equity/ commercial real estate bubble is the Mother of All bubbles, but this is endemic to a culture that promotes excessive risk taking and rewards it with excessive compensation.

The stock market values companies based on earnings. Residential real estate is no different these days. So what's your home worth? Based on this simple calculation it may be lower than you think.

Does all this mean the W-recovery is off the table? Not necessarily. What it means is that there is a lot of liquidity in the system that will spur another asset bubble. And we all know that asset bubbles do not end well.

By my count the D.C. mortgage lenders have upward of $1 trillion of loans on their books that were made to achieve social objectives. This has been 'play money' for Congress and past Administrations for years. The boss at FHFA has told Congress this has to stop. Where are chips going to fall on this one?

This sugar story will leave a bitter taste in your mouth. 30 year old stories come back to life. What is the FDA doing? And What does Don Rumsfeld have to do with this?

For the third time, gold soared past the $1,000 level, causing the market to eye the precious metal's record of $1,033.90 reached in March 2008. While Citigroup is predicting a $2,000 scenario by next year due to continuing dollar weakness, a number of bullish factors, both near and long term, have converged to boost gold.

Biz is booming for guns and ammo. This is not one of those 'Green Shoots' however.

The challenges in private markets are also weighing on many institutional investors who are growing increasingly impatient with private equity groups charging hefty fees on the big funds they raised during the debt bubble. It's fair to say that unless activity picks up, private markets will reach a breaking point - one that may weaken the industry for a very long time.

The rules of the game have changed. After the disaster of 2008, pension funds will be scrutinizing their investments a lot more carefully, especially their investments in alternatives like hedge funds, private equity, real estate and commodity funds. Those funds who refuse to adapt will find it extremely difficult to raise the money they need to compete.

P&I's article “Renaissance to open up a bit”, discusses the firm’s quest for institutional money and reads very much like a marketing piece. Yes, RIEF performance this year is just awful and assets have “plummeted 81% to $5 billion as of June 30, down from a peak of $27 billion” but, after "massaging" these numbers, P&I was able to find something positive.

Here are some arguments why one should think twice before jumping in bed with gold bugs, or at least remain sober while determining gold’s weight in the portfolio .

A big monthly deficit for the Trust Fund. This was supposed to be a 2037 problem. Not any longer.

Debt is like herpes: ignore it long enough and it just disappears on its own.

The market's upward momentum this year has hordes of investors still looking for opportunities with good entry points. With crude prices hovering around the $70/bbl range, even with reduced demand, oilfield services remains one of the more promising sectors still with room to grow.