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Uh-oh...

Investors are basically rational, right?

In fact, as many studies have demonstrated, the answer is no.

In order to understand the present state of the U.S. economy you have to understand that there are two things happening at once. For the most part they are in conflict with each other, in that one track can negatively impact the other. Lest I be accused of putting out conflicting information, there is evidence that the economy is recovering in some fashion, but not because of the reasons most economists and politicians think. There are still substantial prevailing winds blowing against the kind of recovery most commentators are hailing as fact. But economies have a tendency to repair themselves unless the feds derail the process.

In this interview with CNBC on Nov. 4, 2009, Dr. Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Monitor, cautions investors of the coming asset bubble and crash caused by the dollar carry trade, and at the same time shared his views on the economy and housing.

This is the second time in many weeks that Dr. Roubini warned of a growing dollar carry trade and threatening to cause a global implosion. The following is a summary of his CNBC interview along with my comments.

Let me put it more crudely. A senior portfolio manager in public markets once told me "when you're writing $100 or $200 million tickets to private funds, they all want to blow you."

Fiddling while Rome burns ...

That tax deal with Fannie that was recently leaked was actually old news. Fannie signed the deal prior to September 30. So why the recent press? Some one was trying to put some muscle on the "deciders' before the talks were made public. Is this that "opaque government" we were expecting?

We commented yesterday on the absurd (or threatening) hypothesis that the Fed would drain all $1 trillion in excess reserves by the end of March, 2010. Today, we reenter the fascinating world of JPM, Goldman and Pimco Treasury advisors, where inflation is relegated to a mere marketing device, and passing the buck to the last bondholder is a game unto itself.

In our latest piece (within a series of analyses that detail both the technical and fundamental landscapes of gold, silver, copper, oil, the CRB (Commodity Index), the US Dollar, the EURO and the remaining major currencies of the G8 in relation to one another), we at Fibozachi present an initial look into the technical composition of gold.

For a change, this week I decided to only comment on links that suggest that everything in the world is rosy and that the US is already in the middle of an impressively sound V-shaped recovery. Too bad I couldn’t find anyone who argued either of those points credibly. Oh well, guess everyone will have to settle for yet another dose of reality.

Riddle me this. An industry gets into trouble due to chasing fads, loading up on debt and overpaying for property. Many participants in said industry flirt with insolvency due to difficulty meeting debt service and asset values that have dropped below liabilities. This industry has been gifted with a special...

Many big hedge funds (and private equity funds) become asset gatherers, collecting 2% on huge assets. When you see more marketing personnel than investment professionals visiting you, pull the plug fast!

The history of mankind is dominated by politics. Since the early gathering communities until the present postmodern political environment. All great historical events can be traced back to a series of political decisions, which were either done by the ruling political option or its opposition. The main purpose of this short article is to present the underlying realities of that what is considered political, and also to give a critique of the present state and define its anomalies and irregularities

Why economists REALLY got it wrong...

D'oh!