Econophile's blog

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Commodities Were So 2011: This Year It’s Tech’s Turn to Pop & (Maybe) Top





Large IPOs often mark tops within sectors and within stock markets as a whole. In June 2007, shortly after the s*** had begun to hit the fan in the financial stocks, the Blackstone Group (BX) was able to get a multi-billion dollar IPO in. About a year and a half later, BX was down about as much as the Dow Jones fell between its 1929 peak and its mid-1932 nadir--almost 90%. Major IPOs and runs of hot IPOs in a single sector do not happen in a vacuum. They are not the result of a philanthropic attitude amongst corporate insiders or the financial community. Last year, memories of the crash had finally faded enough that it became time for U.S. investors to become the quacking ducks that, as always, Wall Street had food for. And of course, tech was there as the most palatable food. If they wanted, Facebook could raise every penny it needs, and more, from private sources. So ...

 
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Updating Smithers: Continued Caution for Stock Bulls





Writing as someone who was strongly stock-oriented for most of a long investing career, I can assert that at today's low dividend yields, it is difficult to see stocks as strong trees on which to rely. The Smithers parameters provide cautionary evidence for the bulls who point to current "low" price-earnings ratios and "sunny skies almost forever" views of corporate profits and predict stock market returns well above bond yields for years to come.

 
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Making Sense Of 2011





This is the time of year when you are supposed to look back and make sense of what happened during the year and make predictions about the new year. A futile task if there ever was one. How can anyone make sense of a world where California prohibits the production or sale of beer to which caffeine has been added (They want drunks to fall asleep at the wheel?). ...

 
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How To Raise Taxes and Create Prosperity





I am constantly reminded how useless are official and semi-official committees, subcommittees, boards, associations, organizations, bureaus, brotherhoods, conferences, dialogues, and congresses. The word bloviate comes to mind. Today that reminder came in the form of a report from the OECD on tax policy and inequality from the "International Tax Dialogue (ITD) 4th Global Conference on Tax and Inequality." 

 
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The Osawatomie Speech: A Defining Moment In History





 

President Obama's speech at Osawatomie, Kansas this week was deceitful, inaccurate, revisionist, and demagogic. He has clearly drawn a line in the dirt. He is at war with the foundations of American culture and founding ideals.

 

 
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The Worldwide Depression/Recession Of 2012





 

In case you haven't noticed, the rest of the world continues to slow down and the negative data is accelerating. The big powerhouses of the world, the eurozone including Germany, Japan, and China are leading this trend and there is no reason to believe that the U.S. will not follow.

I've been writing about this theme frequently lately because, while we are seeing some positive numbers here in the U.S., we are also seeing signs of weakness starting to show up, and since we live in a world of international trade, the world's woes will hit us.

 

 
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Precious Metals Update: Focus on Silver





This article was written by DoctoRx for the Daily Capitalist. He is a successful investor with 30 years of markets experience. The Doc gives us a look at where silver is going, plus a look at PSLV.

 
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The Economy Is In Jeopardy





This white paper is a thorough analysis of the current economic situation and what are the most likely outcomes. The result is that the U.S. will be joining the rest of the world in an economic decline. This is not a new recession but a continuation of the existing one. Many of the data reports from the government, especially GDP, are grossly misleading and paint a hopeful but false picture of what is happening. We give our forecast for the next six months.

 
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Supercommittee Fails: Congratulations!





 

Now that the supercommittee has failed to reach a budget compromise we hear about how things don’t work in D.C. any more. There is a nostalgic longing for the good old days when collegial legislators could get together and act for the benefit of the nation. 

What a crock.

Another way to look at it is that finally someone stood for something and refused to compromise basic principles.

 

 
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Trouble Ahead: Employment, Inflation, And The Fed





We are at a critical point as the worlds' economies continue to decline. Continued high unemployment and a stagnant economy will put pressure on the Administration and the Fed to do something. The implications are not good.

 
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This Year’s ‘Lehman Moment’ Might Occur Soon





Is the missing MF Global customer money a 'Lehman' moment. Risk is off, off, off.

 
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Q3 GDP Is A Head Fake





The Q3 GDP report tells us nothing about the health of the economy and it is misleading at best.

 
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A Brief Guide To The Euro Crisis





 

There are several things that you need to know about the eurozone crisis and Wednesday's Summit agreement:

  1. It isn't over.
  2. The European Monetary Union's (EMU) "architecture" is a failure.
  3. They spent too much and can't possibly repay the debt.
  4. Banks will need to be bailed out.
  5. They will print money.

 

 
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Winners And Losers: The New Economy





The economy has become and will continue to be more volatile and less robust for the foreseeable future as wealth is concentrated in the wealthiest segment of the country. This concentration is a direct result of the Fed's boom and bust monetary policy that steers capital into the financial markets instead into more productive uses. We are running on fumes as the top tier gambles. Instead of wealth being distributed widely throughout the economy as capitalism has done historically, we are now becoming an economy of winners and losers.

 
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