Econophile's blog

My criticism of the "public option" proposal urged by MoveOn spokesperson Heather Graham drew some jeers from the pack, so I thought I'd expound on the topic of national health care. This first article is about the experience of other countries. To come up with the best system possible, why not take a look at systems around the world that are run or sponsored by governments. Do some research and find out what works and what doesn’t. Also, we should be very skeptical of cost estimates for the proposed system.

MoveOn.org is not one of my favorite institutions. What really irks me about them are the lies and economic falsehoods they promote. Now they are agitating for the public option in the regressive health care bill as good old American "healthy competition." It's a lie and they know it. They've produced a silly video starring that well known expert on health care policy, Heather "I've-seen-you-naked" Graham. It's probably her best performance since Boogie Nights. The public option will kill health care in America.

If you moved music stands at Carnegie Hall for a living, you might think you were lucky to get the job. You get to work with the some of the greatest musical talents of our time. And, the work isn't that hard. Maybe even fun to be around all that genius. But what if you made $530,000 a year doing it. Now, THAT would be fun. Maybe board president Sandy Weill doesn't think that's so much. After all, it is the Big Apple.

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan and Fooled By Randomness, writes brilliantly on investment risk, but his proposed solution to the economic crisis, converting defaulting mortgages to equity by banks, will result in America catching the Japanese Disease. We can't keep debt lingering on the books of banks like they did in Japan. And you can't magically turn stone into bread. Read this and tell me what you think. Perhaps he is creating another black swan.

We have forgotten what money is. Here is a fable for your weekend entertainment that explains what it is. You've had a hard week, enjoy some light reading. Lots of pictures, no big words. Have fun.

The FDIC is proposing new rules that will allow banks to lower underwriting standards and capital requirements in order to encourage them to rewrite commercial real estate loans. This will cause more deflation, stagnation, and tightening of credit and will lengthen the recession/depression.

Since we are already in a deflation, the argument over inflation or deflation is moot. The real question is: how long will we remain in a deflation? And, if deflation ends, will we then see inflation, hyperinflation, or real growth?

Many deflationists assume that since we are following the Japanese path that we will have the same economic results as Japan. That is, a stagnant economy with generally falling prices as has been seen for the last 19 years in Japan.

While it depends mostly on what the government's responses will be, our experience will more likely be stagnation with long-term inflation rather than long-term deflation. The economic differences are significant.

Germany is the biggest test for Keynesian stimulation versus a hands off approach. The German election clinches their turn away from fiscal stimulus. Germany has done the least Keynesian spending gimmicks of any major economy and the new financial team headed by incoming Minister of Finance, Hermann Otto Solms will turn to free market friendly policies. You won't believe what they have to say about economics and their economy. I predict they will recover from the re/depression long before the U.S.

Why do economists keep getting it wrong? How can we ever trust what they say again after their miserable performance before the crash? They see what they want to see. Sheep. If we've learned anything it's to ignore mainstream economists. Listen to the outliers because the mainstream never gets it right. Here's today's data brought to you by an outlier. Remember to be skeptical.

The national sales tax is no longer idle talk. I guarantee that it is coming soon because Obama is running out of money and they're panicking about paying for the deficit. They just can't tax the rich enough to pay for it. Tomorrow starts the official vetting of the tax.

Where IS the economy going? Ben Bernanke says we've turned the corner and the economy is in recovery. Don't assume that is the case. It isn't. The data has too many negatives to assume that everything is going to re-set to pre-2008. The prospect of deflation and then stagflation is a more likely scenario.

All this for a measly $100 million paycheck? He only made $2 billion for Citigroup.