Econophile's blog

Are housing prices in free-fall? Are they stuck in some endless feedback loop whereby foreclosures drive down prices which causes more home owners to be under water which causes more defaults and drives down prices further, and ...

When the Fed takes its foot off the money pedal starting in June, money growth momentum will slow down. The consequences of this will be falling equity prices and higher unemployment. Bernanke would rather see higher inflation than higher unemployment, especially during an election year. His only choice will be the political one: QE3.

This article discusses the current path our economy is taking. While most economists believe the Q1 GDP stumble was a temporary blip in an ongoing recovery, I believe it is the beginning of a downward trend of economic stagnation and inflation. The root of this is the Fed's attempts to inflate the economy into recovery.

Nothing has really changed with Wall Street's risk models and risk evaluation theories. Instead of focusing on doing a better job managing clients' wealth, they are more concerned with managing their risk from client lawsuits. Pretty sad conclusion in a post-Black Swan world. See what they said at the Milken Institute's Global Conference.

Putting aside the S&P threat to downgrade U.S. debt for the moment, consumer and business confidence is weakening, which would be consistent with other data we are seeing about such diverse things as retail sales and industrial production. This is consistent with our forecast for stagflation.

Every major country is experiencing price inflation as a result of monetary inflation and it is starting to impact their economies. US Ex-Im prices and trade indicate that we are experiencing price inflation, regardless what the CPI says, and that it is weakening the economy.

In a follow-up to my article on Argentina's road to hyperinflation, it appears that Presidente Cristina de Kirchner is getting nasty in the way all autocrats get nasty: kill the messenger. As mentioned in my previous article, the level of ignorance, stupidity, and demagoguing by de Kirchner and her central bank head, Mercedes Marco del Pont, is vast.

Here are some quick hits of economic data that have been reported in the past several days. I am convinced that "something is still happening" in that we are seeing continuing signs of improvements in most major categories of economic data (excluding the real estate markets) and we would be foolish to ignore the trend. But ...

The CMBS market gives us an inside look at the credit quality of many CRE loans which are the key to recovery. This article tells you why it's important.

The economy is in a structural readjustment that will leave the middle class higher and drier. Long-term factors will continue to negatively affect employment. We are headed to a higher level of permanent unemployment than the 5% that existed in pre-crash 2008.

There are so many Federal programs to aid housing it looks like a tag cloud graphic that you see on some web sites. Yet they all have one thing in common: failure. The more they try to keep the corpses of the housing boom alive, the worse the problem becomes. Every program to forestall a quick economic readjustment has only served to prolong the problem. Here's why.

It's going to be a long haul for housing and there is nothing on the horizon, such as an improving economy, lower unemployment, and climbing wages to stem the flow.

It seems like we're having great news today about consumer spending, at least if you read the articles coming from the Journal and Bloomberg. They don't let you forget that consumer spending is 70% of the economy. They seem to ignore the debt bomb and its impact on spending.

Do you find Ben Bernank difficult to understand? Here is Adam Smith translating for us.

Why does our government and Dr. Bernanke fail to see the obvious: inflation is here and it's worse than you think. All the world is inflating right now and the flood of newly printed money is chasing assets worldwide. What does this mean to our economy? Think about this: what good will a cheap dollar be for exporters when the rest of the world combats their internal inflation? If cheap money fuels demand, then ...