Marc To Market's blog

An overivew of the price action in the foreign exchange market and what it might mean in the week ahead.  

Many investors understandably have not focused on France. The threat of scandal in Spain, the need for yet another round of government support for Italy's third largest bank and the country's upcoming election have commanded attention. What seems to have been a free ride for France may be coming to an end.

Even though the German economy contracted twice as much as the French economy in Q4, we learned this week, the implications for France are greater. Recent data suggests that the German economy has stabilized and may be expanding albeit slowly this quarter. French data continues to disappoint. This is particularly important because the French government's growth forecast for this year is optimistic, well above the consensus.

The resignation of the Pope was followed by a lightning strike on the Vatican. A meteor storm has killed more than 150 people in Russia. UK retail sales collapse in January, falling 0.6% increased of rising 0.5% as the consensus expected. Insult was added to injury as the November and December series were revised lower.

The European Commission formally endorsed the financial transaction tax agreed to by eleven of the 27 members. The tax will be set at 0.1% for stocks and bonds and 0.01% for derivatives. The tax will go into effect at the start of 2014, by which time the participating countries will give it formal approval.

There seems to be two purposes of the tax. The first is to raise revenue. The EC projects the tax will raise 30-35 bln euros annually where ever and whenever an instrument from eleven is traded. This would seem to block the ability to avoid the tax by moving transactions out of the eleven countries. It reinforces the "residence principle". This essentially means that if some one is a resident of the eleven countries, or acting on behalf of a resident, the transaction will be taxed anywhere it takes place. The other purpose is to deter the high frequency trading, which some officials see as largely unnecessary and potentially destabilizing.

After trending gently higher for the first half of the week, the euro has been sold to new three week lows in response to the disappointing Q4 GDP figures. The GDP figures are of course backward looking and more recent data, such as the PMI figures and German factory orders suggest the regional economy is stabilizing here in early Q1.

There is a middle step to go from the GDP figures to the euro and that is the interest rate channel. There has been some speculation that the passive tightening of the euro area financial conditions (including the shrinking of the ECB's balance sheet) and the strength of the euro would prompt the ECB to cut the refi rate later in Q1. The poor GDP readings bolster such expectations and this can be seen in short-term interest rates. The March Euribor futures contract is now implying 0.24% rate, having matched the lowest rate since Jan 23, or before the early repayment of LTRO I was announced.

Reports indicating that Americans have invested more in equity funds here in 2013 than they did all last year have given rise to talk of the "Great Rotation". The idea is that Americans are selling fixed income investments bought during the financial crisis and now buying shares. We are less sanguine. There is a third asset class that needs to be integrated into the analysis: cash. After surveying the data and various reports, it looks to us that the flows into equities is not coming out of fixed income but rather money market funds and deposits.

The price action in the foreign exchange market is choppy as short-term participants seem nervous after being whipsawed yesterday. Sterling fell nearly a cent to new multi-month lows following the BOE's inflation report that confirmed official expectations that price pressures will remain above target and King welcomed the recent depreciation of the point. Also of note the Australian dollar, which staged a sharp recovery off the year's lows yesterday and has seen follow through buying today, helped perhaps by gains in a consumer confidence measure.

The was nothing in the rogue G7 sourced comment yesterday that that Japanese Finance Minister Aso did not say prior to the G7 statement and before the weekend. The pace of the yen's depreciation was too fast. The market reacted to it at the time.

The G7 issued a statement that essentially endorses stimulative policies in Japan and elsewhere, but reaffirmed its commitment to market determined exchange rates. This is a green light to buy dollars against the yen and to buy euros.

This is an overview of the euro area financial conditions, including the ECB's balance sheet, deposits and Target2 imbalances. By these measures, the financial condition in Europe continues to improve. We suggest the biggest loser last week was Hollande who was rebuffed twice by Merkel, who is the vastly superior politician. While Hollande's call for FX policy to address the over-valued euro was easily turned aside, less appreciated is that Merkel joined forces with the UK's Cameron to cut the EU budget and France's sacred cow--CAP.

The markets generate noise and a signal.  Reasonable people can and do differ on which is which.  This brief note address the signals for the yen and euro.  Secondarily it looks at sterling and the Australian dollar. 

Here is a review of the technical condition of the major currencies.  In my professional experience, I know few purist fundamental traders in the foreign exchange market.  Even for those, like myself, who study the macro economic and political fundamentals, technical analysis allows us to quantify the risk. Those who make money in the markets, do not do so because they are right more often, but rather they are disciplined risk managers.  Technical analysis provides a way to manage the risk by helping to identify where we are wrong.    It is offered here not as a substitute for fundamental analysis, but as a complement.  

The magnitude of the euro's slide on Monday is typically not asscoiated with one-day events.  The market may be cautious ahead of the ECB meeting on Thursday, but we expect this pullback in the euro will prove to be a new buying opportunity.  We anticiapte the euro holds above $1.34.  We note that Spanish yields have been rising in aboslute terms and relative to Germany for the better part of three weeks.  This has been happening as the euro rose.  The main driver of the fx market is the portfolio shift associated with the realization that EMU will be here tomorrow and the next day and the passibe tightening of euro area monetary conditions.  At the same time the Federal Reserve has renewed its commitment to buy $85 bln of long-term assets for months to come.  

Here are eight considerations that will shape the captial markets in the week ahead.  

I argue that Abe is lucky, but now needs to be smart. I made a proposal a few years ago that Japan should return a quarter of its reserves to the Japanese people. The proposal is more compelling now than then. The objections by BOJ officials can be overcome by the Abe government. Reserves are for a rainy day and it is continuing to rain in Tokyo.

Here is an oveview of the forces that are driving the foreign exchange market and price targets for the euro and yen.  We identify the ECB meeting as a potential challenge to the existing price trends, but expect it to see the tightening of financial conditions in the euro area as partially a reflection of positive forces, especially that banks have reduced, on the margins, the reliance on ECB for funding.  Draghi will likely attempt to calm the market down with words not a rate cut.  Also we see the "currency wars" as being exaggerated, not just because the foreign exchange market has alsways been an arena of nation-state competition, but that it is primarily in the realm of rhetoric among the G7 countries.  Few, including Germany, who have expressed concern about what Japan is doing, have objected to the Swiss currency cap.  There is not a bleeding over into a trade war.  The push back against the Japan (among the G7) appears to have slakcened a bit.  Officials prefer Japan not provide price targets for bilateral exchange rates (like dollar-yen), but if stimulative monetary and fiscal policy weakens the yen, that is ok.