Phoenix Capital Research's blog

Any editor, analyst or commentator who claims that a “Greek bailout deal has been reached” is lying.

The whole thing feels a bit like the summer of 2008 all over. Once again, the global economy is weakening, a significant crisis has erupted, and temporary solutions to said crisis are being hailed as a success.

Perhaps the most concerning is the fact that should a “systemically important” financial entity go bust, any deposits above $250,000 located therein could be converted to equity… at which point if the company’s shares, your wealth evaporates.

In short… the two biggest reasons for the markets to be rallying today (Greece and China) are simply temporary issues. They will resolve, very likely for the worse, in the coming weeks. Smart investors should be using this bounce to prepare for the next wave of the Crisis.

When you shred democracy and the central tenants of a legal system in order to benefit the very few, it’s only a matter of time before the whole system collapses.

As the next Crisis unfolds, it will more and more difficult to get your money out of the financial system.

The Big Crisis, the one in which entire countries go bust, has begun. It will not unfold in a matter of weeks; these sorts of things take months to complete. But it has begun.

Greece is not the real issue for Europe. The entire Greek debt market is about €345 billion in size. So we’re not talking about a massive amount of collateral… though the turmoil this country has caused in the last three years gives a sense of the importance of the issue.

Spain has over $1.0 trillion in debt outstanding… and Italy has €2.6 trillion. These bonds are backstopping tens of trillions of Euros’ worth of derivatives trades. A haircut on them would trigger systemic failure in Europe.

This process will be spreading throughout the globe going forward. Indeed, the FDIC has proposed precisely the same “bail-in” program if a “systematically important financial institution” were to go belly-up in the US.

Greece just took a hit… and once again it’s depositors that will take it on the chin. But this process is only just begun. Similar Crises will be spreading throughout the globe in  the coming months.

This process has already begun in Europe. It will be spreading elsewhere in the months to come. Smart investors are preparing now BEFORE it hits so they are in a position to profit from it, instead of getting slaughtered

At the end of the day, the “Greek” issue is in fact a “debt” issue. And Greece is just a drop in the ocean of debt sloshing around the financial system.

Europe is imposing capital controls…  next up will be border controls.

The next round of the great crisis is here. 2008 was just A Crisis… we've just begun THE Crisis.