Phoenix Capital Research's blog

Occasionally I see an article written by some Guru claiming that Gold has no real investment value. They usually use points such as the fact that Gold has no cash flow or you can’t use Gold to buy goods or whatever. All of this stuff is outright moronic. Sure Gold doesn’t have cash flow… but then again Gold also, doesn’t engage in accounting fraud, doesn’t miss quarterly earnings, isn’t affected by Obama’s health care, doesn’t lie about its real balance sheet problems.

Imagine if a grizzly bear got up and tried to attack you after you already brought it down with repeated gunfire. What would you do? You’d blow its head off and then walk up to the body and shoot it until you ran out of bullets to make sure the thing didn’t get up again. Bernanke would do the same thing to deflation today.

Bernanke tells the public and Congress that the reason we need low interest rates is to support housing prices. He doesn’t mention that $188 TRILLION of the $223 TRILLION in notional value of derivatives sitting on the Big Banks’ balance sheets is related to interest rates. Yes, $188 TRILLION. That’s thirteen times the US’s entire GDP and nearly four times WORLD GDP. If even 4% of this money is “at risk” and 10% of that 4% goes wrong, you’ve wiped out ALL of the equity at the top five bank

I would not view a rally in the US Dollar as negating my forecast for massive inflation, if not hyperinflation within the next two years. Indeed, we’ve already seen asset prices explode higher WITHOUT the Dollar falling. These gains occurred at a time when the US Dollar didn’t fall a CENT. So the idea that you need the US Dollar to collapse in order for inflation to hit is a lie.

Let’s pretend the US is a company...

By most historic metrics, the market is showing signs of a significant top. Investor sentiment is back to super bullish autumn 2007 levels. Insider selling to buying ratios are back to autumn 2007 levels (insiders are selling the farm). Money market fund assets are at 2007 levels (indicating that investors have gone “all in” with stocks). Mutual fund cash levels are at a historic low.

Remember back when Bernanke claimed that more QE would lower interest rates? What was it… less than six months ago. Strange that this claim would be so far removed from every journalist (and the minds of regulators and Congress) when the markets have proven Bernanke to be an outright fraud.

It’s the perfect set up for any investment: dwindling supplies and growing demand. The inflationary holocaust will only be adding gasoline to the fire, pushing agricultural commodities to record highs. As Jim Rogers puts it, “God knows how high the price of agriculture is going to go, so that's where I'm putting more of my money now than in other things… I think I'm going to make more money in agriculture than I make in precious metals.''

Well, the US Dollar has staged a small bounce at $77 or so. The question now is whether this becomes anything substantial, or is merely a result of the Euro/USD pair becoming so stretched that a brief pullback had to happen. We should know the deal within a few days. However, the greenback is now only 2% away from breaking its multi-year support line. If the Dollar turns down again now then the inflationary collapse will intensify rapidly.

Traders take note. The inflation trade is back in full effect. It is overstretched in some areas, but that state can last quite a while. And we you consider the idiocy coming our of the Fed (QE 3!?!?!) and the ECB, it’s not surprising. Until someone reigns these lunatics in, commodities will be ramping higher, trumping even stocks’ performance.

To my way of thinking, you only own Gold if you OWN Gold. By this I mean you have REAL ACTUAL GOLD in your hands, NOT a claim on Gold that someone else CLAIMS is exists. After all, the paper-based Gold ETFs are all run by large banks that claim to have enormous warehouses of Gold. Seeing as these institutions are all lying about the toxic debts, off-balance sheet assets, and more… what’s to stop them from lying about their bullion reserves?

Inflation is already exploding worldwide, which means paper money in general is going to be worth less and less on its way to worthless. If you think the US is immune to this situation, you're in for a very RUDE surprise in the coming months. Indeed, the Fed’s Hoenic just announced there might even be QE 3… and he’s supposed to be one of the Fed HAWKS!

Of course, all of this is just financial speculation and trading models. No sane person could possibly invest in the Euro today based on fundamentals. After all we’ve already seen Greece ask for an extension of its bailout payments from three to 30 YEARS. And it’s not as though investors are interested in buying bonds from Spain or Portugal (see the recent bond buying activity from the ECB). And then of course there’s the Irish wild-card now that the elections will be held in late February.

Honestly, at this point why do the Feds even bother trying to make GDP sound credible. If you’re going to just make stuff up, why not shoot for the moon? We could be posting GDP growth of 500% per quarter and employment at 200%. Why not simply REMOVE inflation from economic data? Just claim the Dollar hasn’t moved EVER.

Now, $1 trillion is a tough number to get your head around. Here’s a little visualization to help you…Imagine you had a stack of $1,000 bills. $1 million would be a stack eight inches high. $1 billion would be over 800 feet high (think of the Washington Monument). And $1 trillion would be a stack 142 MILES high.