Reggie Middleton's blog

In developing my REIT short thesis, I am being forced to spend more time than anticipated quantifying the effect of explicit sell side manipulation combined with purposeful opacity in the CRE mortgage holdings as endorsed by our dear government. I am actually entertaining a direct head to head analysis competition with an entity such as Goldman Sachs that ends up explicitly detailing which properties of which REITs are underwater and by how much, which may end up in a "run on the REITs", by the banks (at least those with common sense), who don't want to be left with the least edible scraps at the table.

Yes, you've been Bamboozled! Hoodwinked! You're being taken for suckers that not only can't count, but whose memories have been washed away by threats of swine flu and reality TV shows. Do not fret, though. What I have is PROOF of the great Banking Bamboozle, for all to see. Now, armed with this proof, all I need for you is to go out and do something about it.

Riddle me this. An industry gets into trouble due to chasing fads, loading up on debt and overpaying for property. Many participants in said industry flirt with insolvency due to difficulty meeting debt service and asset values that have dropped below liabilities. This industry has been gifted with a special...

I know some company executives may be a little pissed at me for revealing what I see as weaknesses in their opertations. Please let it be known that I am quite fair and do not have an axe to grind or set agenda, other than the dissemination of the truth. I can do this since I am truly independent and disinterested and can take any side of a trade. I do not have clients that I need to appease, or consituents that I need to bend the truth for. With that being said...

The recent bear rally has driven most of the solvent, semi-solvent and absolutely insolvent CRE stocks up, quite a few approaching 100%, while their macro outlook has deteriorated significantly, along with their fundamentals. Quite a few have actually acted in cahoots with the banks that held their increasingly worthless debt, having issued secondary offerings basically converting the bank holdings of debt that didn't have an icicles chance in the hottest portion of Hell of getting repaid, into worthless toilet paper, heretofore marketed as stock certificates. They have also begun offering this used toilet paper as dividends. If this isn't the sector screaming for me to come back and short it, I don't know what is.

I'll admit it to everyone, I am absolutely disgusted with my investment performance over the past two quarters. I came into the second quarter up nearly 500% for the two years running thanks to top notch research across myriad sectors and loss about half of that profit fighting the bull rally that I easily saw coming but severely underestimated the length, depth and breadth of.

How bad will the luxury hotel market get? Well,,, Pretty bad. All of those BS, "better than expected" earnings surprises off of severely lowered estimates stem not from top line revenue gains or economic progress, but from hacking jobs and cost cutting. Ya' think those Four Seasons', et. al. hyper-luxury executive suites are included in those cuts somewhere??? Here are all of those pretty graphs and interconnected hyperlinks to help tell the story...

Hey, the little banks are doing their derivative thang too!

The Mother of All Carry Trades has encompassed the big banks in another one of the Biggest Bubbles of recent history – and very few even know about it. Here’s a few tidbits, Goldman Sachs is the most exposed in terms of tangible equity at risk, while JP Morgan has the most gross exposure.

If history has taught us anything, it is that those with the most money are not necessarily those that are best at investing money. There is a saying that encapsulates this in a somewhat more erudite manner (I would never be so forward, or so rude :-)) - "When playing poker, look around the table. If you can't find the sucker, it is probably you!". Obviously, the guys at Capmark didn't read BoomBustBlog...

You know, I happen to really, really appreciate the blogoshpere. There are a select handful of blogs that offer unique, insightful and very difficult to come by expertise, opinion and commentary. Much more so than the mainstream media and even more so than the more specialized media. Despite this, there are certain components of the MSM and corporate America that still do not respect the blogs. Now, why is that? Well, I dare you - no, I double dare you - to find an MSM outlet that performs investigative analysis at the level of the top blogs. I'm not even going to bother to mention who those blogs are (hint, hint), but just want to throw the challenge out there as I show how PNC may have possibly pulled the wool over the collective media, sell side and market's eyes.

Surprisingly good earnings, 10%+ rise in share price, declining charge offs and 90 day late paying loans, lower loss provisioning, rosy review from the media and more BUY, BUY, BUY signals from the sell side - what more could one ask from an anointed 19 bank? Well, for starters, we could request that their non-performing assets stop increasing at unprecedented rates. If not that, then we can always ask why reduce loss provisioning in the face of climbing non-performing loans...

Reggie - I am a large hotel company and have been treated like a thief by the doo doos [he is referring to Reggie Middleton's notorious Doo Doo 32 (As I see it, these 32 banks and thrifts are in deep doo-doo!)].

For all of you momentum chasing, non-calculating, never touched a spreadsheet, CNBC luvin', James Cramer watchin' bulls out there, I have a feeling you will be hearing a lot of I told'ja so's over the next 12 months.

Here is a quick look at the Ackman short, O's covenant risk and a comparison to the cash shortage at American Campus Communities. ACC's issues are more imminent!