8.5%

Analysis suggests that commentators and policymakers need to better distinguish between the ways in which the US shale gas boom constitutes a ‘revolution’ and the ways in which it does not. The US unconventional energy boom has reversed the decline of domestic production, significantly lowered oil and gas imports, reduced gas costs for consumers, and created a political space for tougher regulations on coal-fired power plants. But it is not a panacea. Even if current estimates of production turn out to be accurate, the benefits to the US economy in the long run are relatively small, and the benefits to manufacturing competitiveness in most sectors are even smaller.

By this point, one has to be impressed at the resilience with which algos repeat the same pattern over and over again, hoping for a different outcome. It is now the 6th day in a row that the JPY-carry trade (be it USDJPY, EURJPY or AUDJPY) driven levitation has pushed equity futures smartly up in overnight trading. And by all accounts - in the absence of ugly macro news which in today's sparse data line up (just Personal Income and Spending and UMich consumer condfidence) - the same post early highs fade we have seen every day in the past week will repeat again. The overnight euphoria was driven primarily by Europe where Bloomberg reported 2 Year Spanish yields have traded below those of the UK for the first time since 2009. And since it is obviously not the strong fundamentals, what is continuing to happen, as has been the case since October 2013, is everyone is pricing in the ECB's QE, which even Weidmann is openly talkin about  now, which simply means it will most likely never actually happen, certainly not until it is too late.

The markets are speculating that Vladimir Putin will have to set up some form of capital control in order to stem the flight of capital from his country. It was already happening before the crisis in Ukraine and the annexation of Crimea. But, now it is set to get worse and an estimated $70 billion is the figure that is being mentioned

While Naftogaz (Ukraine's gas pipeline operator) states that all gas transportation from Russia to Europe is running normally, Bloomberg reports that Russian natgas exports to Europe are declining. Shipments are down over 4% from the prior week and also lower to Ukraine. This 'adjustment' follows increased sanctions by the West as Medvedev's notable statement this morning that Ukraine owes Russia $16bn. Furthermore, Gazprom has cut its Diesel output by the most in 7 months... and just to rub some Black Sea salt into the wound, NY Times reports that Russia's asking price for natgas to Europe is soaring.

With senior German officials expecting discussions among leaders at the EU Summit to solely focused on a second round of sanctions against Russia (and warnings that they "must avoid a spiral of sanctions"), we thought it worth drilling down on just how mutually-dependent the two regions are. As Acting-Man's Pater Tenebrarum notes, the following infographics suggest tit-for-tat sanctions could be a really big problem for Europe and why the EU's leaders are probably quietly praying for the crisis to simply go away.

Last week we discovered that Gazprom's Chairman Viktor Zubkov sold his entire stake in the company days before the Crimean invasion (and subsequent sanctions and asset freezes). Today, on the heels of the latest round of US sanctions against Russia's so-called "Putin cronies"; Cyprus-based oil trader Gunvor Group announced that co-founder Gennady Timchenko (estimated wealth $8.5 billion) - who was named on today's sanctions list - sold his entire 44% stake in the company yesterday. The question is - as we show below - did the US Treasury tip Timchenko off to what was coming?

As the US and EU press forward with sanctions - proclaiming them as the first step in punishing economic actions - the world's stock markets could not be happier. European stocks are up over 1% - their best day in 6 weeks; Germany - notably hard-hit on the basis of its gas-dependence - is surging by the 2nd most this year as Italian stocks rally a ridiculous 2.4% (its 2nd best day in 7 months). Everyone loves a good short-squeeze on war escalation but we suspect the surge in Russian stocks - up 8.5% from Friday lows -  (and the Ruble) will be disappointing more than a few of the world's great thinkers in Washington and Brussels.

A weekly technical outlook for the major currencies.

Goodbye SAC Capital. Hello SEC Capital.

• European Bonds Surge on Slowing German Inflation, Ukraine Tumult  (BBG)
• Ukraine tensions hit shares (Reuters)
• Debating Geithner’s Appearances in 2008 Transcripts  (Hilsenrath)
• Tensions in Asia Stoke Rising Nationalism in Japan (WSJ)
• GM Investigated Over Ignition Recall Linked to 13 Deaths (BBG)
• Smartphone wars shift from gadgetry to price (Reuters)
• Some Companies Alter the Bonus Playbook (WSJ)
• London’s Subterranean Luxury Manors Lure New Breed of Lenders (BBG)
• Japan No Country for Old Farmers as 7-Eleven Takes Plow (BBG)
• Dream of U.S. Oil Independence Slams Against Shale Costs (BBG)

Despite the surge in "seasonally-adjusted new home sales", un-seasonally-adjusted mortgage applications tumbled 8.5% this week, the biggest drop in 3 months as the modest January bounce has been almost entirely unwound. This pushes the broad MBA mortgage applications index down to near its lowest in 14 years. However, the home-purchase index continues to collapse. Purchase applications are down 30% from their May highs plunging in the last few weeks to their lowest level since 1995. Must be the weather, eh? Or is it like Bob Shiller warned yesterday, the unwind of "bubble thinking," especially as "gains are slowing from month-to-month and the strongest part of the recovery in home values may be over."

For the second night in a row, China, and specifically its currency rate which saw the Yuan weaken once more, preoccupied investors - and certainly those who had bet on endless strenghtening of the Chinese currency - however this time it appeared more "priced in, and after trading as low as 2000, the SHCOMP managed to close modestly green, which however is more than can be said about the Nikkei which ended the session down 0.5%. Still, the USDJPY was firmly supported by the 102.00 "fundamental" fair value barrier and as a result equity futures, which had to reallign from tracking the AUDUSD to the old faithful Yen carry, have been propped up once more and are set to open at all time highs. If equities fail to breach the record barrier for the third time in a row and a selloff ensues after the open in deja vu trading, it will be time to watch out below if only purely for technical reasons.

Winter storms and cold weather dominated much of January and somehow Empire State managed its greatest beat in a year; however, we are sure the weather will be blamed for the biggest miss in 3 months for the data in Feb (printing 4.48 vs expectations of 8.5). New Orders tumbled from 10.98 to -0.21; inventories plunged, and expectations for the average work week and future Capex spend expectations collapsed to their lowest since July 09.The drop from January's exuberance is the largest in 18 months.

Yellen confirmed that the U.S. recovery is fragile and said more work is needed to restore the labor market. She signalled the Fed’s ultra loose monetary policies will continue and the Fed will continue printing $65 billion every month in order to buy U.S. government debt.

After initially sending the all important USDJPY carry pair - and thus all risk assets - into rally mode, the initial euphoria over manipulated Chinese trade data (see China Trade Puzzle Revived as Hong Kong Data Diverge), has all but fizzled and at last check the USDJPY was sliding to its LOD, approaching 102 from the wrong side. That, and a statement by the ECB's Coeure that the ECB is "very seriously" considering a negative deposit rate (and that the OMT is ready to be used even though it obviously isn't following the latest brewhaha from the German top court) have so far defined the overnight session, the latter having sent the EUR sliding across all major pairs.