8.5%

If there isone thing that is virtually certain about today's trading (aside from the post Rig Count surge in oil because if there is one thing algos are, it is predictable) is that despite S&P futures being a touch red right now, everything will be forgotten in a few minutes and yet another uSDJPY momentum ignition ramp will proceed, which will push the S&P forward multiple to 18.0x on two things i) it's Friday, and an implicit rule of thumb of central planning is the market can't close in confidenece-sapping red territory ahead of spending heavy weekends and ii) the Nasdaq will finally recapture 5000 following a final push from Apple's bondholders whose recent use of stock buyback proceeds will be converted into recorder highs for the stock, and thus the Nasdaq's crossing into 5,000 territory because in the New Normal, the more expensive something is, the more people, or rather algos, want to buy it.

Janet Yellen is very alarmed that some members of Congress want to conduct a comprehensive audit of the Federal Reserve for the first time since it was created. During testimony this week, she made “central bank independence” sound like it was the holy grail. Even though every other government function is debated politically in this country, Janet Yellen insists that what the Federal Reserve does is “too important” to be influenced by the American people. Does any other government agency ever dare to make that claim? If the Fed is doing everything correctly, why should Yellen be alarmed? What does she have to hide?

Last week it was 19 central banks (including the ECB which accounts for 19 nations) which had cut rates in 2015, mostly in "surprise", unexpected easing decisions. Moments ago the number became 20 when the Israel central bank just cut its interest rate by 0.15% to 0.1%, the lowest on record, a move which once again caught the market by surprise as only 3 of 23 analysts had predicted it.

With the world's oldest central bank - Sweden's Riksbank - taking the plunge into negative rates, there have been 19 'eases' by central banks this year, Morgan Stanley warns of "ghosts of the 1930s." With competitive 'easing' stoking fears of international currency wars, The Telegraph notes however that looser monetary policy is not the order of the day everywhere in the world, and herein lies potential danger for the world economy.

• Markets From Stocks to Debt to Euro Show Little No Panic (BBG)
• Greek Euro Exit Risk Increases as EU Delivers Ultimatum (BBG)
• Oil rises to $62, near 2015 high as Mideast risks support (Reuters)
• Texas judge blocks Obama plan to protect undocumented immigrants (Reuters)
• Oil Train Derails and Ignites Forcing West Virginia Evacuations (BBG)
• Battle rages for town where Ukraine rebels reject ceasefire (BBG)
• Chinese Firms Tiptoe Back Into Europe’s Battered Financial Sector (WSJ)
• Putin’s Paradise Becomes Economic No-Go Zone Where Cash Is King (BBG)
• Emerging fund managers stuck in buy-and-hold as trading shrivels (Reuters)

Many people ask why we can’t just cancel all debt, and start over again. To do so would probably mean canceling all bank accounts as well. Most of our current jobs would probably disappear. We would probably be without grid electricity and without oil for cars. It would be very difficult to start over from such a situation. We would truly have to start over from scratch. Those holding paper wealth can’t count on getting very much.

• Greek defense minister says Greece has Plan B if EU rigid on deal (Reuters)
• Germany rejects Greek claim for World War Two reparations (Reuters)
• Greece to Seek $11.3 Billion in Financing to Avoid Funding Crunch (BBG)
• Lazard Sees $113 Billion Greek Debt Cut as ‘Reasonable’ (BBG)
• U.S. Navy Considers Setting Up Ship Base in Australia (BBG)
• Dalio’s Bridgewater Fund Said to Rise 8.3% in January (BBG)
• As U.S. Exits, China Takes On Afghanistan Role (WSJ)
• EU money funds cut exposure to bank debt (FT)
• China Inflation Drops to Five-Year Low in January (WSJ)
• Oil-Price Rebound Predicted (WSJ)

• RBA cuts interest rates to record low of 2.25% (SMH)
• RBI keeps rates on hold (Reuters), India allows banks flexibility on big projects to reboot growth (Reuters)
• BP slashes capital spending by 20% (FT)
• Greek Retreat on Writedown May Move Fight to Spending (BBG)
• Rosneft accounting move helps BP beat profit forecast (Reuters)
• Amazon in Talks to Buy Some of RadioShack's Stores (BBG)
• Behind Obama's budget proposals, a gloomy view of the future (Reuters)
• How the Justice Department, S&P Came to Terms (WSJ)
• Staples, Office Depot in Advanced Talks to Merge (WSJ)

While the #Blizarrdof2015 may have been a dud, it is the skies above New York, some 10,000 feet and above, that is where the real action lies. Or rather doesn't. As this real time snapshot of airplane traffic over New York, not a plan is to be found.

"...if Greece’s rebellion was to occur in a coherent way,...it would be only a matter of time before it was replicated in other parts of the continent." But don't think 'they' will let it happen peacefully. They'll organize huge social unrest, inject violence, and then try to use it to clamp down on the population and reinforce their grip on power. This won't remain confined to Greece.

• Saudi Arabia’s New King Probably Will Not Change Current Oil Policy (BBG)
• Saudi King’s Death Clouds Already Tense Relationship With U.S. (WSJ)
• Oil Pares Gains as New Saudi King Says Policies Stable (BBG)
• Kuroda Says BOJ to Mull Fresh Options in Case of More Easing (BBG)
• U.S. pulls more staff from Yemen embassy amid deepening crisis (Reuters)
• Putin Said to Shrink Inner Circle as Hawks Beat Billionaires (BBG)
• A Few Savvy Investors Had Swiss Central Bank Figured Out (WSJ)

• Obama Targets Income Gap in Address That Shapes 2016 Election (BBG)
• Republicans Reject Obama’s Main Economic Proposals (WSJ)
• Senate’s Shelby Says White House Bank Tax Is Dead on Arrival (BBG)
• Is Dollar Next? Investors Reassess After Swiss Shock: Currencies (BBG)
• Bank of Japan Cuts Price Forecast, Maintains Record Stimulus (BBG)
• Pound Weakens After BOE Policy Makers Drop Call to Raise Rates (BBG)
• Putin not flinching on Ukraine despite economic crisis (Reuters)
• Indonesia will not make public full preliminary AirAsia crash report (Reuters)
• Party Hasn't Stopped for Russians at Davos Even With Ukraine Sanctions (BBG)

Global markets face three risks, according to Edwards: bearishness in the U.S. government bond market, a flawed confidence that the U.S. is in a self-sustaining recovery and undue faith in the relationship between quantitative easing (QE) and the equity markets. “It doesn’t matter how much QE is spewing out of the US,” he said. “The markets will lose confidence that the policymakers are in control of events, just as they did in 90's Japan. They lost faith that the policymakers were in control. This is the biggest risk out there.”

• Oil Drops Below $45; U.S. Stockpiles May Speed Collapse (BBG)
• Pound Drops as Traders Write Off Higher Rates on Inflation Slump (BBG)
• Oil prices down again as UAE defends holding production (Reuters)
• The Politics Behind the ECB's Threat to Cut Greece Funding (BBG)
• France dispatched thousands of police and military personnel to protect synagogues and Jewish schools, as the government warned of continued terror threats after three days of deadly violence (WSJ)
• Chinese Car Dealers Find Days of ‘Printing Money’ Ending (BBG)
• Gold Rises to Highest Since October as U.S. Rate Outlook Weighed (BBG)
• Divers retrieve crashed AirAsia jet's cockpit voice recorder (Reuters)