B+

I think it is clear that extremists in an environment of despotism are in most cases people who refuse to abandon that which makes humanity whole.  We are, indeed, dangerous, but only to those who would do liberty harm.  A life of conformity is a life wasted, and a life of slavery is no life at all.  Whatever we may be called today, what we leave behind is ultimately what defines us.  Labels are irrelevant.  If I am an “extremist” because I refuse to participate in the delusion that is America in the new millennium, then so be it.  I am more than happy to join the long list of insurrectionaries who inhabit this nation today and who have been the legitimate makers of the world for generations.  Everything in history revolves not around governments, but rule-breakers.  They alone decide whether humanity will live tight in the fist of the authoritarian machine, or live free in the wilds of unbridled independence.

Yesterday we were quite amused to note that following the Hilsenrath leak (pre-backpeddaling as a result of some FRBNY spanking) of a sterilized QE that for supposedly tries to avoid "generating" inflation (hence confirming that QE does in fact stimulate inflation instead of being a tool to lower rates and make housing affordable) the market reaction was... inflationary, with stocks rising, but far less than crude and gold. So much for the Fed's trial balloon to see if it can intervene in the market without costing Obama a few million ballots. Today, Art Cashin observes precisely the same paradoxical response in his daily note.

Update 2: This about summarizes it: "We have no Plan B. Having a Plan B means to admit defeat"

Update: Draghi says LTRO has been an "unquestionable success" but does not answer if there will be future LTROs. Bookmark this statement. Also says that ECB has to do things "together" when asked about Jens Weidmann criticism, with whom he says his relationship is excellent.

Will Goldman-alum Mario Draghi further infuriate German central bankers and announce additional easing steps by the ECB, whose balance sheet has become a "bad bank" punching bag for everyone who wishes to divert attention from their own problems, or will he, after flooding the world with €1 trillion since coming to power a few months ago, be satisfied for the time being and not preannounce another LTRO? Also, will he mention the previously noted collateral margin calls that have appeared recently like hairline fractures in the ECB's balance sheet, discussing the specifics of why, how and where these come from, or will he conveniently skip this rather problematic issue? Find out during the Draghi press conference starting at 8:30 am Eastern.

In what can only be the most ironic of stories today, Reuters is reporting that Citigroup has become the first financial services client for IBM's Jeopardy-playing human-cognitive 'machine' Watson. While IBM expects the financial services segment to provide significant revenues, we worry that Congress will enact some protectionist policy as thousands of highly paid extrapolators analysts are suddenly outsourced to a non-eating, non-bonused, non-champagne-buying, non-tax-paying server farm somewhere. Supposedly Watson offers a 'huge marketing edge' as the government-owned bank is likely to use the uber-computer for "risk management (as opposed to stock picking)" as it offers a 'more global picture' combing through 10-Ks, prospectuses, loan performances, and earnings quality while uncovering sentiment and news not in the usual metrics. We look forward to the next conference call as Vikram is replaced by a Siri-Watson discussion of why TBTF exists.

Social Security might be an issue for the election after all.

The UK's Daily Mirror newspaper has uncovered the FX trader who dropped over $300k in a Scouse club. It is a 23-year old 'self-taught' barrow-boy named (somewhat ironically in our view) Alex Hope. Self-described as "talented (three years in and a six-figure salary, hhmm), charismatic (its amazing how much 'charisma' a GBP125k bottle of bubbly will buy), and thoroughly likeable (ditto) man. Alex Hope exudes knowledge..." and is willing to share it with you according to his website. How did he become this B.S.D. of the FX markets? "I took two months off my job at Wembley, got really obsessed with reading charts and got the guts to start trading properly." This self-made rosy-cheeked young chap with a penchant for mind-numbingly-arrogant-looking photos on his website may have just become the poster boy for all that is 'great' about the free market - or perhaps a skim through his blog and media exposure will reassure us all that anything is possible as we note he does have some good taste (not just in Champagne) in RTing our posts on Twitter. We can only HOPE that the next time he decides to go down the rub-a-dub-dub for a Leo Sayer, maybe he'll take some of us Septic Tanks with him on the frog-and-toad...as the days of the ship-it-in-large-on-the-left John, done-a-yard by-breakfast spot FX trader are clearly back with us.

And now for some pure irony, we have a member of the Fed, granted a gold bug, but a Fed member nonetheless, one of the same people who not only enacted ZIRP, but encourage easy money every time there is a downtick in the market, complaining about, get this, Wall Street's "continued preoccupation, bordering upon fetish" with QE3. The irony continues: "Trillions of dollars are lying fallow, not being employed in the real economy. Yet financial market operators keep looking and hoping for more. Why? I think it may be because they have become hooked on the monetary morphine we provided when we performed massive reconstructive surgery, rescuing the economy from the Financial Panic of 2008–09, and then kept the medication in the financial bloodstream to ensure recovery....I believe adding to the accommodative doses we have applied rather than beginning to wean the patient might be the equivalent of medical malpractice." So let's get this straight: these academic titans, who for one reason or another, are given free rein to determine the fate of the once free world with their secret decisions every two or three months, are completely unaware of classical conditioning, discovered by Pavlov nearly 90 years ago, also known as a salivation response. The same Fed is shocked, shocked, that every time the market dips, the red light goes off, and the "balls to the wall" crowd scream for more, more, more free money. Really Fisher? Really? Oh, and let us guess what happens the next time the S&P slides into the tripple digits: will the Fed a) do nothing, thereby letting the market slide to its fair value in the 400 point range, or b) print. Our money, in the form of hard yellow metal, is on the latter, just like we predicted, correctly, back in March 2009 in " Bailoutspotting (Or The Search For The Great Financial Methadone Clinic" that nothing will ever change vis-a-vis the great market junkie until it all comes crashing down.

Analysts are questioning the "double-down effect" the ECB's LTRO exercises are creating in eurozone sovereign spreads. Citi notes a spike in the purchase of government securities since the initial take-up in December.

It was only sugar water anyway. 

One way to gauge the real economy is to look at charts of the GDP, wages, household debt and the price of oil; another way is to correlate all of these on one chart. The following chart (courtesy of frequent contributor B.C.) plots these four metrics thusly: GDP/(wages/household debt)/price of oil. What pops out of the chart is what happens when oil spikes higher or declines. In 1973, the first oil shock sent the economy off a cliff. Conversely, when oil fell to $12/barrel in the late 1990s while wages were rising strongly, the plotline peaked, reflecting a strong economy. In 2008, oil spiked to $140/barrel in 2008, household debt reached record heights and wages began stagnating, and the economy fell into a sharp recession. When oil plummeted back to $40/barrel in early 2009, the plotline spiked up. When oil prices and household debt are high while wages stagnate or decline, the economy sinks to recessionary levels....The current plotline is hovering just above the recessionary levels of late 2008. Does this reflect a strong economy, or one that is weak? If oil keeps climbing, what will that do to a visibly weak economy?

That Tilson's fund was down 0.9% in February is no surprise. After all the company's Qualified fund has underperformed the S&P since inception in 2004 (more on that in a second). After posting a gain in January, T2 is back to its losing ways (as a reminder the fund was down 20% in 2011, which means it has to post a well bigger than 20% return in 2012 to get above the high water mark). Tilson's performance is summarized as follows: "On the long side, winners included Citigroup (8.5%) and SanDisk (7.8%), offset by Netflix (-7.9%), Grupo Prisa (B shares) (-7.4%), and J.C. Penney (-4.7%). On the short side, we profited from First Solar (-23.6%), which just reported dismal earnings and guidance, Interoil (-10.4%), and Boyd Gaming (-8.7%). These gains were offset by Salesforce.com (22.6%), which is growing rapidly but trades at 8.7x revenues and has a $19.6 billion market cap despite being unprofitable. In addition, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, which we think is likely to be the next Krispy Kreme (for those of you with long memories), rose 21.8%" And also "Since Berkshire reported earnings, the stock is actually down a bit so we took advantage and, though it was already our largest position, we added to it." All that is fine and well, but we have two questions. What is Tilson's, a self-professed "value investor" Sharpe Ratio? Judging by the monstrous volatility swings in its marginal positions, the fund is as much a value investor (read slow, stable rise), as a momo investor is the Queen of England. How long until the CME opens a triple levered (forward and inverse) ETF to take advantage of the already ridiculous monthly vol in the Tilson portfolio, whose Sharpe, just by eyeballing it, must be negative give or take.

With 9 days left until the end of the Greek exchange offer, many are curious for hints on how the uptake may be proceeding and whether funds have amassed enough of a blocking stake in the Greek bonds (they certainly have it in the UK-law bonds whose exchange offer will take place conveniently in Apil after the Troika's €130 is funded, if at all). Which is why the following statement by Juncker will likely be very closely scrutinized:

• JUNCKER SAYS THERE'S `PLAN B' IF GREEK DEBT SWAP FAILS
• JUNCKER DECLINES TO PROVIDE DETAILS ON BACK-UP PLAN

The problem for the Fed is that interest rates are already zero, and playing around with bonds and buying more mortgages (the Fed already owns $1 trillion) is ultimately pushing on a string: the Fed can't force all the free money into productive investments, nor can it force banks to lend or consumers to spend. The cliche is "don't fight the Fed;" there is no need to "fight the Fed" because they're busy self-destructing, and all we have to do is watch. Maybe the market will follow Apple in a trajectory to the moon here. If it doesn't, a variety of other models suggests the wheels may fall off the "growth and rising profits forever" story and the market will decline to test recent lows or even hit new lows.

For anyone who traded in the 2003-2007 interval (second liens what else - did anything else even trade in that period), the name DB Zwirn was synonymous with hedge fund perfection. In fact, the only name that stood above it was that of Phil Falcone's hedge fund Harbinger. Gradually, both of these high fliers were replaced in the awestruck trader lexicon with another "legendary" hedge fund, that of Paulson & Co. But for a brief period the Zwirn offce at 745 Fifth is where every fixed income trader wanted to reside. Yet as always happens, anything that is too good to be true, isn't. Below is William Cohan, who in a way that only he can, spins the tale of the the rapid rise and even more rapid fall of the hedge fund manager who had it all by his thirties, only to lose it (mostly) all shortly thereafter.

Bill Gross' monthly letters are always a fresh source of jovial imagery, although the bond king may have outdone himself in his latest monthly letter which collapses the principles of investing onto the football field: "My point about pigskin offense and defense is the perfect metaphor for the world of investing as well. Offensively minded risk takers in the markets have historically been the ones who have dominated the headlines and won the hearts of that beautiful gal (or handsome guy).... Canton, however, has an approximately equal number of defensive in addition to offensively positioned inductees, so there must be a universally acknowledged role for both sides of the scrimmage line. What fan can forget Mean Joe Greene, Deion Sanders or Mike Ditka? The old, now politically incorrect showtune laments that “you gotta be a football hero, to fall in love with a beautiful girl,” but football and any of life’s heroes can play on either side of the line, it seems." And it only gets better. While at its heart Gross' latest is merely yet another lamentation against the confines of the financially suppressive regime that arises from ZIRP and ends with what many expect is a whimper (when in reality they all forget to factor in the facility of hitting the CTRL+P keys as many times as necessary), the flourish of abandon this time around is palpable. We would not be surprised to soon see Gross hang up his offensive (and defensive) jersey, and sit back and enjoy the coming lunacy from a distance (but hopefully not before he allocates just a little to the Ron Paul SuperPAC).