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Tyler Durden's picture

"Buy The Dips! What Could Possibly Go Wrong?" Axel Merk Warns "A Hell Of A Lot"





The lack of fear in risky assets is another way of saying that risk premia have been low, or as we also like to put it, that complacency has been high. Not fully appreciative of this inherent risk, it seems many investors have refrained from rebalancing their portfolios, and bought the dips instead. We believe the Fed’s efforts to engineer an exit from its ultra-low monetary policy should get risk premia to rise once again, that if fear should come back to the market, volatility should rise, creating headwinds to ‘risky’ assets, including equities. That said, this isn’t an overnight process, as the ‘buy the dip’ mentality has taken years to be established. Conversely, it may take months, if not years, for investors to shift focus to capital preservation, i.e. to sell into rallies instead.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Look Out Below: The Real Economy Just Hit Stall Speed





Look out below, for even with bloated federal spending, the real economy has hit stall speed.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Dead, White, & Blue - The Great Die-Off Of America's Blue Collar Whites





While the lifespan of affluent whites continues to lengthen, the lifespan of poor whites has been shrinking. As a result, in just the last four years, the gap between poor white men and wealthier ones has widened by up to four years. This was not supposed to happen. For almost a century, the comforting American narrative was that better nutrition and medical care would guarantee longer lives for all. So the great blue-collar die-off has come out of the blue and is, as the Wall Street Journal says, startling.”

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Despite LeBeau-gasms, Domestic Vehicle Sales Slide For 2nd Month In A Row, Miss By Most In 5 Months





Well this is a little awkward. After a day of exuberant unsubstantiated auto sales proclamations that a) it's not all subprime, b) 8-year credit terms do not pull forward demand, and c) it's totally sustainable; anyone could have been forgiven for being excited about the total vehicle sales of 18.12mm (according to Wards' data), just above expectations of 18.10mm and flat from October. However, Wards reported just 14.03mm domestic vehicles sold (missing expectations by the most since June) and dropping for the 2nd month in a row. Those darned facts do get in the way eh?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

The Coming Great Recession, Brought To You By The Healthcare Cartel





So what happens when an insatiable state-mandated cartel attaches itself to households with declining real incomes?

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Global Stocks Start Off December With A Bang, US Equity Futures Rebound; Yuan Drops





There was something for everyone in last night's much anticipated Chinese PMI data, with the official number sliding to the lowest in over 3 years, suggesting the PBOC will need to do more stimulus and is thus bullish, while the unoffocial Caixin print rising to the highest since June, suggesting whatever the PBOC is doing is working, and is also bullish. Not unexpectedly, global stocks decided to take the bullish way out, and have risen across the globe led by Asia, where stocks rose as much as 1.8%, Europe also green and US equity futures up 10 points as of this writing.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

4 Telltale Signs The Credit Cycle Is Turning Now





"... As the tide of leverage goes out, the full extent of irresponsible lending becomes apparent. The previously virtuous cycle between risk spreads and fundamentals goes into reverse, with lower prices, defaults, and downgrades forcing leveraged investors to sell, leading to even lower prices."

 
GoldCore's picture

Gold Demand in China Heading For Record and Reserves Increase 14 Tonnes In October





While gold prices continue to languish in the doldrums and are on course for their worst month since 2013, global demand and especially Chinese retail, investor and official demand continues to remain very robust. Indeed, China looks likely to see a new record demand for gold annually again in 2015.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Frontrunning: November 30





  • Dollar rises versus euro, oil drops before ECB, OPEC meetings (Reuters)
  • Smog chokes Chinese, Indian capitals as climate talks begin (Reuters)
  • Obama: COP21 Paris Climate Talks Could Be ‘Turning Point’ For Planet (BBG)
  • China plans to launch carbon-tracking satellites into space (Reuters)
  • Scientists Dispute 2-Degree Model Guiding Climate Talks (WSJ)
  • At NATO, Turkey defiant over downing of Russian jet (Reuters)
  • ECB Left With No Choice But Action After Draghi's Priming (BBG)
 
Tyler Durden's picture

Obama Signs Defense Bill Authorizing $500 Million More In Aid To "Moderate" Syrian Rebels





It's no secret that the US has played an outsized role in facilitating Syria's five-year civil war by funneling money and guns to a hodgepodge of opposition groups. It's also no secret that The Pentagon's latest "train and equip" program was a disaster of epic proportions. But rest assured, if Washington can make it worse, Washington will make it worse, which is why we weren't surprised that the 2016 NDAA authorizes more taxpayer money for the funding of "moderate" Syrian rebels.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Can The Oil Industry Really Handle This Much Debt?





With at least 83 percent of these companies' operating cash being spent on debt repayments - the highest on record - the renewed collapse in crude oil prices of the last month has renewed focus on the tidal wave of defaults that the credit market is increasingly pricing in (and stocks not).

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Russia Retaliates: Putin Reveals Sanctions Against Turkey





While many in The West had hoped for a "see, we told you so" strongman military response from Vladimir Putin, it appears the Russian leader has, for now, taken a more practical approach. The wide-ranging sanctions unleashed on Turkey (by its 2nd largest trade partner) include a ban on Turkish workers (with estimates that 90,000 will be fired by Jan 1 2016), restrictions on imported goods and services provided by Turkey, and scraps visa-free travel and bans charter flights (implicitly hurting a major part of Turkey's domestic industry). Finally, Putin calls for "strengthening of port control and monitoring to ensure transport safety," hinting at the fears many have voiced over whether Turkey shutting the Bosphorous in an escalation would be seen as an act of war.

 
Tyler Durden's picture

"On The Cusp Of A Staggering Default Wave": Energy Intelligence Issues Apocalyptic Warning For The Energy Sector





The US E&P sector could be on the cusp of massive defaults and bankruptcies so staggering they pose a serious threat to the US economy. Without higher oil and gas prices — which few experts foresee in the near future — an over-leveraged, under-hedged US E&P industry faces a truly grim 2016.  "I could see a wave of defaults and bankruptcies on the scale of the telecoms, which triggered the 2001 recession."

 
Tyler Durden's picture

Why China Hit The Panic Button On Metals Traders (In 1 Simple Copper Chart)





Within the last week China appears to have hit the panic button with regards the seemingly unstoppable collapse of commodity prices. First, desperate Chinese producers began to demand a QE-for-commodities bailout; then, following the well-trodden (and failing) path of China's equity market maipulation, authorities began to crackdown on "malicious" commodity short-sellers. So why now? Why focus attention on the commodity markets? Perhaps this chart holds the key...

 
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