“Sometimes the side effects outweigh the benefits"...
The trio of macro-prudential policy, the onset and evolution of shadow banking, and the nebulous concept of financial stability may have become a toxic cocktail which can be instrumental in moving forward the Federal Reserve’s timeline for lift-off zero bound rates. The intuition here is stooped in concepts of volatility and how market structure evolution may contribute or detract from asset volatility. Volatility is the square root of time. Financial repression times time equals volatility. Financial repression and/or macro-prudential policy times time equals the inverse of financial stability. Financial stability inverted equals volatility squared.
October 15th, 2014 wasn`t a market crash!
With only six weeks (or one Graccident) to go until Bund purchases are forced out to 7-year maturities, and with traders warning that nearly every piece of PSPP-eligible German government paper will eventually trade special in repo despite the ECB’s feeble attempt to remedy the situation via its Securities Lending Program, the world wants to know: “when do I sell Bunds?”
"A government shutdown is very probable in the next three months due to the absence of liquidity to operate," Puerto Rico's finance officials warn, in an effort to shock lawmakers into action and avoid a potential "PRimbo".
There was once a time, perhaps, when unprecedented things happened only occasionally. In today’s financial markets, unprecedented things are commonplace. The Queen in Lewis Carroll’s ‘[Alice] Through the Looking-Glass’ would sometimes believe as many as six impossible things before breakfast. She is probably working in the bond markets now, where believing anything less than twelve impossible things before breakfast is for wimps.
Futures Fizzle After Greece "Hammered" In Riga, Varoufakis Accused Of Being "A Time-Waster, Gambler, Amateur"Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/24/2015 06:59 -0400
Even though no rational person expected that the Greek situation would be resolved at today's talks in Riga, Latvia, apparently the algos were so caught up in spoofing each other to new record highs that futures, after surging once more overnight following the latest Google miss which sent the company and the Nasdaq soaring, actually dipped modestly into the red following headlines that the latest Greek talks have broken down after a "hostile" Troika "hammered" the Greek finmin, who was accused by European finmins of "being a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur."
They’ve become sitting ducks, in a market that is "in extreme overvaluation."
Tomorrow, Friday, April 24th, the finance ministers of Europe will again meet to discuss the fate of Greece’s bailout program. Although no definitive course of action is expected to come out of this meeting, it is yet another chance to assess the potential consequences if indeed the Greek government defaults on its loans.
"Companies that obsessively buy back their shares could be making a big mistake," Moody's head of head of leveraged finance tells CNBC, echoing what we have said on too many occasions to count. With IG supply at all-time highs and with companies pouring the money into share repurchases instead of investing in future productivity and growth, we say yet again that the theatre of financial engineering will continue only until it can no longer continue.
Following the CEO's comments that over 100,000 energy jobs will be lost this year, an executive with Weatherford International - the fifth largest US fracker - has warned half of the 41 fracking companies operating in the U.S. will be dead or sold by year-end because of slashed spending by oil companies. “We go by and we see yards are locked up and the doors are closed," said Rob Fulks, seemingly confirming what Weatherford CEO Duroc-Danner said earlier in the year, "we're now confronted with an unusually severe market contraction."
It's 8am, do you know where your sudden Treasury-bond seller is?
Today is shaping up to be a rerun of yesterday where another frenzied Asian session that has seen both the Shanghai Composite and the Nikkei close higher yet again (following the weakest Chinese HSBC mfg PMI in one year which in an upside down world means more easing and thus higher stocks) has for now led to lower US equity futures with the driver, at least in the early session, being a statement by the BOJ's Kuroda that there’s a "possibility" the Bank of Japan’s 2% inflation target will be delayed and may occur in April 2016.
"If the BoJ persists with its current pace of JGB purchases, then the incentive for investors to reduce their holdings any further is likely to dwindle away within the next 18–24 months, at which point liquidity may evaporate altogether," Morgan Stanley says, calling liquidity the "major theme" in the JGB market. Meanwhile, a former MoF official claims the BoJ is now in so far over its head that an exit from stimulus is "out of the question."