Bond

"We May Be Very Close To The Turning Point": Selloff Blamed On This Note From JPM's Marko Kolanovic

"Growth in short volatility strategies in a self-fulfilling manner suppresses both implied and realized volatility. This in turn prompts other investors to increase leverage, and those that hedge with options lose out and eventually throw in the towel. The fact that we had many volatility cycles since 1983, and are now at all-time lows in volatility, indicates that we may be very close to the turning point."

The Fed Remains On Course... To Trouble

"If the Fed were to shed just 64 percent of its current bond holdings, the base money supply in the US banking system would be completely wiped out, making the banking sector effectively illiquid. In this process, US interbank interest rates would presumably spike, sending shock waves through the economic and financial system, not only in the US but worldwide."

Frontrunning: July 27

  • Healthcare showdown (Reuters)
  • Tax Overhaul in Doubt With House Stuck on Budget Disagreements (BBG)
  • Dollar steadies after Fed skid, shares hit new highs (Reuters)
  • Samsung Is Closing In on Apple as World’s Most Profitable Tech Firm (WSJ)
  • Sweden's PM Refuses to Resign After Cyber-Security Scandal (BBG)

Global Stocks Hit New All Time High As Dollar Rebounds; Europe Volatile On Earnings Deluge

The levitation continues with S&P futures pointing to - what else - another higher open while European stocks swung between gains and losses on the busiest earnings days of the year (85 of the Stoxx 600 report) which has seen European pharma giant AstraZeneca plunge 15%, the most on record, after its flagship lung cancer trial Mystic failed to show benefits, while Deutsche Bank slumped 4% on a 12% plunge in FICC revenue.

Draghi Did Not Keep His Promise

"The threat to the euro is today greater than it was in 2012, and for that Draghi has completely failed. It comes not in Target II imbalances and Greek default penalties, but in political upheaval tied directly to what it is that Mario Draghi can’t seem to figure out. He can promise all he wants, but Europe’s fate will not be determined by his euro."

Howard Marks Sounds The Alarm On ETFs And Passive Investing, Again

"If funds ever flow out of equities and thus ETFs, what has been disproportionately bought will have to be disproportionately sold.  It’s not clear where index funds and ETFs will find buyers for their over-weighted, highly appreciated holdings if they have to sell in a crunch."

22 Troublesome Facts

Below are 22 troublesome facts explaining why the herd may, in fact, have it wrong.

Five Years Ago Today...

“The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.”