Bond

"Hillary Rally" Fizzles As DB Hits New Record Low; Volkswagen Slammed; Oil Slides On Iran Statement

A rally in global risk that started during last night's first presidential debate on the market's take that Hillary came out on top fizzled, following news that the DOJ is assessing how big a criminal fine it can extract from Volkswagen (-3.8%) over emissions-cheating "without putting the German carmaker out of business", while Iran's oil minister Zanganeh told reporters Iran is ununwilling to freeze output at current levels. Deutsche Bank dropped to a new all time low while its default risk hit fresh record highs.

The QE Premium

"...to be blunt, given the aforementioned fundamental risks and the poor risk/return skew, history is clearly not in favor of those who remain long equities banking on the Fed to continue to levitate valuations and prices with limited tools and faulty narratives."

Saudi Arabia Bails Out Banking System After Interbank Rates Hit 2009 Highs

Amid what some might call self-inflicted economic collapse, Saudi Arablia has announced a $5.3 billion bailout of its banking system as interbank borrowing rates near the highest since Lehman. In what the supposedly central bank calls "supportive monetary policy...on behalf of government entities," is easing liquidity constraints with 28-day repo agreements and is the second liquidty injection this year.

Global Stocks Tumble, US Futures Slide On Deutsche Bank Fears, Central Bank And Commodity Concerns

While today's biggest event for both markets and politics will be tonight's highly anticipated first presidential debate between Trump and Hillary, markets are waking up to some early turmoil in both Asia and Europe, with declines in banks and energy producers dragging down stock-markets around the world, pushing investors to once again seek the safety of government bonds and the yen.

Deutsche Bank Stock Plunges To All Time Low After Merkel Rules Out State Bailout; Default Risk Surges

As reported over the weekend, in an unexpected announcement Angela Merkel announced that she has ruled out state aid for Deutsche Bank, and the market reaction has been swift and brutal, with the bank's shares tumbling to a new all time low, sliding more than 6% this morning to €10.70, as the company's default risk has soared higher and is now the widest name in the Markit iTraxx index.

Bond Risk Crashes To 2-Year Lows As VIX Shorts Fold

After 10 straight weeks of increasingly bullish speculative positioning ('longer' stock futures and 'shorter' VIX futures), the last 2 weeks have seen short VIX bets plunge at the fastest rate since pre-Brexit and the Aug 2015 crash. At the same time as this surge to hedging, the day since The Fed's utterly farcical fold have seen bond volatility crash to its lowest in two years.

Chinese Contagion Risks Surge: Banks' Reliance On Each Other For Funding Hits All Time High

China’s smaller banks have never been more reliant on each other for funding, prompting rating companies to warn of contagion risks in any crisis.  "Contagion risks are definitely rising," according to S&P: "The pace of the development is concerning. If this isn’t stopped in time, the central bank will lose some control and flexibility of its monetary policy."

Why Hedge Funds Remain The Worst Performing Asset Class Of 2016

It's been a bad year for hedge funds as a result of significantly underperforming the market, coupled with the biggest wave of redemptions since the financial crisis. Unfortunately, according to the latest Goldman data, there is no reprieve in sight. As the following chart from David Kostin shows, both global macro hedge funds and equity long short funds are the worst performing assets YTD on both a total return and risk-adjusted basis.

"Eight Election Trades For November 8th"

On November 8th, the US Presidential election will take place. Below Bank of America lists eight trades, all specific to the election, some applicable to whoever wins, some dependent on the election result: