Jan 2008: Bernanke "The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession." Jun 2008: Bernanke "The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished." Jun 2016: Yellen "chances of recession this year are 'quite low'... The U.S. economy is doing well. My expectation is that the U.S. economy will continue to grow." Channelling Bernanke?
Moments ago we presented a contrarian thesis from Greg Peters of how markets would react to a Leave vote (and by impliocation, Remain). Next, we go back to a more conventional model of how assets would react, and present "a roadmap for the 'Day After'" from UBS, which seeks to answer the question "at what level would we buy or sell each key asset class in either a Remain or a Leave scenario?" It then show ranges of the potential near-term market reactions.
Bridgewater is having another ugly month: in fact it may be one of the worst months in the hedge fund's history. According to sources, in June Bridgewater's Pure Alpha suffered a -6.1% net drop in the month through to June 17th. This means that what until the end of May was -9.1% YTD net drop is now -14.6 YTD.
On the day voting for the UK referendum finally began, what started off as a trading session with a modest upward bias, promptly turned into a buying orgy in painfully illiquid markets shortly after Europe opened as an influx of buy orders pushed European stocks 2% higher, propelled by cable which was above 1.49 for the first time since December and USDJPY climbing over 1.05 in sympathy, following the release of the final Ipsos Mori poll which showed Remain at 52% to 48% for leave.
BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda will be in Switzerland as the results are announced of the U.K.’s June 23 vote on whether to remain in the European Union.He won't be alone: Kuroda will be traveling from June 23 to June 28 to attend meetings of the Bank for International Settlements, where other central bankers also will gather, the BOJ said Wednesday.
"The trend is, has been and likely shall continue to be upward. TINA rules the day; TINA is “Queen.” TINA it is then. It will end when it ends and it will eventually end badly of course for such things always do. But between now and that hundred years the trend for interest rates is lower and the trend for equity prices is higher."
There is definitely considerable negativity about central banking in the mainstream media these days. This is surprising, on the one hand, because central banking provides the foundation of the current economic system, worldwide. On the other hand, such negativity may be signaling far worse.
We have said for many years that accommodative monetary policy completely removes the burden from politicians that would require them to actually make difficult decisions around fiscal reforms, and now Standard & Poor's is saying the same thing.
Here is the table of the Top 100 best performing hedge funds of 2016 ranked by their 3-year compound return, with an average return of 16.98% (ranging from 30% to 12%), outperforming the S&P's 3 year return of 15.13%.