According to Tom Lee, 2016 was the year with the fewest number of days that saw the S&P drift more than 3% away from 52-week highs: "2016 (we do 2016 after 2/11/2016, since early part was a continuation of 2015 selling) saw only 7 days - that is the lowest ever."
"Returns will likely do worse under the new administration than under the departing one, and where exceptions to this may be. That statement is linked to a simple idea. Good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average."
"[Steele] told me that he had been retained in early June by a private research firm in the United States to look into Trump's activity in Europe and Russia. The American firm was conducting a Trump opposition research project that was first financed by a Republican source until the funding switched to a Democratic one. He was never told the identity of the client."
After three years of US sanctions on Russia, Putin's cost of funding his nation's economy has tumbled as Russian government five-year ruble notes climbed further this week, pushing the yield to the lowest on a closing basis since February 2014. Along with being the best performing stock market in the world since Trump's election, Russia's bond market has soared (while China's has tumbled).
If there is any economic assumption that goes unquestioned, it's the notion that profits will remain robust for the foreseeable future. This assumption ignores the tidal forces that are now flowing against profits.
European shares rose as Fiat rebounded on hopes concerns about parallel to Volkswagen are overblown, Asian stocks were little as Chinese shares fell to the lowest level of 2017 after poor export data, and U.S. equity-index futures rose ahead of a deluge of bank earnings. The dollar is headed for a weekly loss and gold trades at the highest price in almost two months.
"3% is basically the beginning of the end... as the business cycle ages, in 2019, 2020 when we could anticipate we might have another recession, that there will be another deflationary burst that will bring rates back down if we do get above 3%, but we haven't violated that trend yet."
Dallas CFO: "The more the rating agencies learn about the crisis facing Dallas as a result of the police and fire pension, the more they understand what the City has been saying for some time – the pension is a significant risk to the fiscal health of the City."
For those tapping the fixed income markets, the borrowing bingefest is conspicuous in its constancy. Not only did global bond issuance top $6.6 trillion last year, a fresh record, sales are off to a galloping start thus far in January.
Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.
Ahead of the start of Q4 bank earnings season tomorrow, Morgan Stanley laid off 5% of its managing directors last week and cut bonuses by roughly 15% because of a decline in revenue from dealmaking and capital raising across Wall Street, Reuters reported.