Bond

European, US Stocks In Eerie Calm As French Vote Looms

Global markets were oddly calm on Friday, the last day of trading before the first round of France's closely fought presidential election, with European stocks posting modest declines ahead of Sunday's main event, Asian shares rising, and set for first weekly gain in the past month, while U.S. futures were unchanged.

40% Of Spanish Children Live In Poverty

Despite a resurging stock market and stabilized bond risk premia (cough Draghi cough), EurActiv reports the proportion of children living below the poverty line in Spain has increased by 9 percentage points between 2008 and 2014, to reach almost 40%.

Crispin Odey: "It Feels Lonely Being Bearish"

"A year ago it was easy to be bearish. China was slowing, world trade was creaking, Europe was not recovering and the oil price was hitting new lows. A year later to be bearish feels lonely... When we look back at this madness, some people will feel ashamed. Twisted facts and twisted logic may be met in the quiet of the night by reality. "

Why Bonds Aren't Overvalued

Will the “bond bull” market eventually come to an end?  Yes, eventually. However, the catalysts needed to create the type of economic growth required to drive interest rates substantially higher, as we saw prior to 1980, are simply not available today. This will likely be the case for many years to come as the Fed, and the administration, come to the inevitable conclusion that we are now caught in a “liquidity trap” along with the bulk of developed countries.

Europe And S&P Futures Higher, Dollar Drops As OPEC Talks Oil Up

European stocks rose amid earnings beats, offsetting weakness in the energy sector and easing investor concerns ahead of the weekend’s French election. Asian shares and U.S. futures also rise. The dollar weakens against the euro and most crosses, while crude oil rebounds following renewed OPEC chatter of a production cut, this time with Saudi Arabia seemingly onboard.

Dow Dead-Cat-Bounce Dies, Tests 2-Month Lows

Overnight exuberance - perhaps on Trump tax comments - has been erased. The Dow is testing recent lows (2-month lows) as VIX jumps and the USD, bond yield surge stalls.

Why Tomorrow's TIPS Auction May Seal The Fate Of The Reflation Trade

With the dollar bouncing back and bond yields and breakevens rising, RBC's Charlie McElligott 'sniffs' that the market is trying to convince itself to turn "cautiously constructive" again on Trump tax movement. However, as he details below, there are a few red flags to pay attention to...

Morgan Stanley Jumps After Beating Estimates On 96% Surge In Fixed Income Revenue

Following yesterday's surprising Goldman miss, traders were closely watching the results of its closest comp, Morgan Stanley this morning to determine if the Goldman FICC revenue disappointment was systemic or a one-off event. They were pleasantly surprised when MS beat on both the top and bottom line, as net income jumped 70% driven by a 96% surge in fixed income sales and trading revenue.

Japan's 10Y Yield Drops Below Zero Again: All Eyes On The BOJ

With every other asset class roundtripping the November election outcome, it was only a matter of time before Japan's 10Y JGB retraced the entire "reflationary" move from 0.0% to 0.1%. And, sure enough, after today's violent deflationary capitulation, moments ago Japan's JGB 0.1% of 2027 once again dipped back under 0%, sliding as low as -0.003% as deflation returns with a whimper.