Bond

Why Morgan Stanley Thinks Stocks "Will Do Worse Under The New Administration"

"Returns will likely do worse under the new administration than under the departing one, and where exceptions to this may be. That statement is linked to a simple idea. Good market environments often involve a shift from economic despair to optimism, and a shift in psychology from ‘fear’ to ‘greed’. Both occurred over the last eight years, producing returns well above the long-run average."

Confirmed: "Unknown" Republican, Democrat Paid For Anti-Trump Report

"[Steele] told me that he had been retained in early June by a private research firm in the United States to look into Trump's activity in Europe and Russia. The American firm was conducting a Trump opposition research project that was first financed by a Republican source until the funding switched to a Democratic one. He was never told the identity of the client."

Weekend Reading: Anticipation

“Stock market bubbles don’t appear out of thin air. They have a basis in reality. But that reality is distorted by misconception..

Sanctions, What Sanctions? Russia Bond Yields Plunge To 3 Year Lows

After three years of US sanctions on Russia, Putin's cost of funding his nation's economy has tumbled as Russian government five-year ruble notes climbed further this week, pushing the yield to the lowest on a closing basis since February 2014. Along with being the best performing stock market in the world since Trump's election, Russia's bond market has soared (while China's has tumbled).

The Eight Forces That Are Pressuring Profits

If there is any economic assumption that goes unquestioned, it's the notion that profits will remain robust for the foreseeable future. This assumption ignores the tidal forces that are now flowing against profits.

Futures Rise On Friday 13th Ahead Of Deluge Of Bank Earnings; Dollar Continues To Decline

European shares rose as Fiat rebounded on hopes concerns about parallel to Volkswagen are overblown, Asian stocks were little as Chinese shares fell to the lowest level of 2017 after poor export data, and U.S. equity-index futures rose ahead of a deluge of bank earnings. The dollar is headed for a weekly loss and gold trades at the highest price in almost two months.

Guggenheim: "3% Is The Beginning Of The End"

"3% is basically the beginning of the end... as the business cycle ages, in 2019, 2020 when we could anticipate we might have another recession, that there will be another deflationary burst that will bring rates back down if we do get above 3%, but we haven't violated that trend yet."

The Corporate Bond Market: Binge-Borrowing

For those tapping the fixed income markets, the borrowing bingefest is conspicuous in its constancy. Not only did global bond issuance top $6.6 trillion last year, a fresh record, sales are off to a galloping start thus far in January.

Jeff Gundlach's Forecast For 2017

Investors will confront excessive debt, high P/E levels and political uncertainty as they enter the Trump presidential era. In response, according to Jeffrey Gundlach, U.S.-centric portfolios should diversify globally.