Bond

How much did the PBoC spend propping up China's stock market in Q3? By how much did they overpay? How likely are they to take an outsized loss? BofAML takes a look.

For once, the overnight session was not dominated by weak Chinese economic data (which probably explains why the Shanghai Composite dropped for the second day in a row, declining 1.4%, and ending an impressive run since the beginning of November) and instead Europe took the spotlight with its own poor data in the form of Q3 GDP which printed below expectations at 0.3% Q/Q, down also from the 0.4% increase in Q2, with several key economies rolling over including Germany, Italy, and Spain while Europe's poster child of "successful austerity" saw Q3 GDP stagnate, far worse than the 0.5% growth consensus expected.

Two nephews of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro were set to appear in front of a New York judge today after the pair was accused of attempting to smuggle some 800 kilos of coke into the US. The case raises further questions about drug smuggling among Venezuelan officials and individuals with ties to powerful figures. For his part, Maduro tweeted the following:"The fatherland will follow its course. Neither attacks nor imperialist ambushes can harm the people of the liberators."

In a sign that the slowing economy, rising bank NPLs, and lackluster demand for credit from overleveraged corporates is overwhelming Beijin's easing efforts, China's October loan growth data came in far weaker than expected in yet another sign that all is most certainly not well with the world's engine of global growth and trade. Meanwhile, fiscal spending soared as it now appears Beijing may have no choice but to go the helicopter route if it hopes to reignite growth.

Evolution happens without goals... without conscious thought. It is a trip without a destination. It is also the way economies work; they do not respond well to manipulation by self-important meddlers. But if you are speaking for the entire planet, you have already gone way beyond the theory of evolution. You are in a world without theory… without science… without experience or history. You are in a world of make-believe – where pundits pretend to know what they are talking about and newspapers fill space with mythical claptrap.

The biggest event overnight came from Europe, where Draghi managed to once again jawbone the Euro lower by ober 50 pips when he told European lawmakers in a prepared testimony that downside economic risks are "clearly visible," repeating his October press conference statement, adding that the ECB will reexamine degree of accommodation in December as "inflation dynamics have somewhat weakened." And the statement that crushed the Euro: "If we were to conclude that our medium-term price stability objective is at risk, we would act by using all the instruments available within our mandate to ensure that an appropriate degree of monetary accommodation is maintained." I.e., another "whatever it takes" moment.

Prepping has not only gone mainstream, it's infected even the billionaire culture as referenced recently on a ZH article:

The last 3 days have seen the biggest surge in US energy credit risk since December 2014, blasting back above 1000bps. This should not be a total surprise since underlying oil prices continue to languish in "not cash-flow positive" territory for many shale producers, but, as Bloomberg reports, the industry is bracing for a wave of failures as investors that were stung by bets on an improving market earlier this year try to stay away from the sector. "It’s been eerily silent," in energy credit markets, warns one bond manager, "no one is putting up new capital here."

"The ECB’s bond buying programme has created favourable financing conditions and provides member states with an incentive to defer much-needed budget consolidation and structural reforms. However, further structural reforms to strengthen markets and competitiveness are crucial for a self-sustaining economic recovery. In addition, monetary policy is leading to a build-up of risks to financial stability which could pave the way for a new financial crisis."

With no bond market to keep algos honest, it's all about USDJPY (until the VIX ramp at the close)..

After a disappointingly un-uber-dovish speech this morning by Draghi,it appears The ECB needed to full ease-tard to make sure 'markets' believe. EURUSD tumbld 50 pips - to the lows of the day - after Reuters reports that, in what is becoming increasingly clear desperation, The ECB is mulling buying the debt of cities and regions.

In what sounds like the plot of a McCarthy-era propaganda spy novel, the Socialists and Communists have overthrown the government in Portugal. That means it's time for the troika to start pushing back against the undesirables by threatening the country with financial ruin. Just call it "tough love." 

With the US bond markets closed for Veterans' Day, it is time to take a breath and examine how far (and how fast) yields have moved in the last few weeks. With the entire curve bursting higher, we focus on the 10Y yield which will need to fight through critical resistance here if rates are to continue to rise.