Bond

Are New Lows For Bond Volatility The Calm Before The Storm?

In the last 5 years, whenever Treasury Volatility closed below rock-bottom 4 level, large movements in term rates followed swiftly (by approx 100bps each time), quickly pushing volatility back up again in the process...

The Blow-Off Top Is Here: Second Largest Weekly Inflows To Wall Street In History

For confirmation that the market is now in its "blow off top" phase, look no further than the latest BofA "flow show" in which Michael Hartnett reports that capital markets just saw their biggest week of equity inflows since the US election ($24.6bn), another chunky inflow to bonds ($9.0bn), which combines to "the second largest week of inflows to Wall Street ever (largest was $35.5bn in Dec'2014)."

Frontrunning: June 16

  • Russia may have killed ISIS leader Baghdadi (Reuters)
  • About 4,000 more US troops to go to Afghanistan (AP)
  • Insurers Look to Ramp Up Premiums in Health Law Exchanges (WSJ)
  • U.N. envoy urges North Korea to explain why freed U.S. man is in coma (Reuters)
  • Wal-Mart Offers a Refuge for Sellers Tired of Amazon  (BBG)

Quiet Start To Quad Witching: Stocks Rebound Around The Globe, BOJ Hits Yen

Today is quad-witching opex Friday, and according to JPM, some $1.3 trillion in S&P future will expire. Traditionally quad days are associated with a rise in volatility and a surge in volumes although in light of recent vol trends and overnight markets, today may be the most boring quad-witching in recent history: global stocks have again rebounded from yesterday's tech-driven losses as European shares rose 0.6%, wiping out the week's losses.

Bank Of Japan Leaves Policy, Economic Outlook Unchanged

As expected by all 43 economists who estimate such things, the Bank of Japan left their policy mix unchanged and in a desperate bid to appear modestly positive about how things are going, maintained that "Japan's economy has been turning toward a moderate expansion," adding that that consumer spending "increased its resilience." Hardly a rousing evaluation of the state of the economy after who-knows-how-many-years of so-called 'stimulus'.

Kyle Bass: "China's Credit Bubble Metastasizing", Still Short The Yuan

Hayman Capital's Kyle Bass made a brief media appearance today, when he confirmed to Reuters that unlike some other "China tourist bears", he remains staunchly negative on China, saying he is still short the Yuan because problems from China’s credit bubble are "metastasizing."

Valuations: It Is Different This Time

"Stock investors have been waiting on the Godot of growth for most of this century and one can’t help but wonder at what point they’ll get up and leave the theater..."

EU Reach Bailout Deal With Greece Once Again

As expected by most (if not all, judging by the 8 year lows in Greek bond yields), European finance ministers have reportedly reached an agreement to bail out Greece once again (provide them with yet another EUR8.5 billion loan), and agreed to discuss the possibility of debt extensions.