Bond

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Darkness Falls Upon Norway’s Key Figures Going Into 2016





As we move into winter, darkness has fallen up on us. Oil, ca. 65% of the nation’s economy, will not see the required $70 barrel anytime soon. American innovation, once again, turns a scarce resource into an abundant commodity. Despite optimistic Norwegian media articles, the potential for $20 per barrel looms. Production overwhelms demand while inventories rise to record highs. Although, still considered the best place to live, the cracks, in the oil based economy, are forming.

 
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Frontrunning: December 31





  • Oil ends 2015 in downbeat mood; hangover to be long, painful (Reuters)
  • Recession, retrenchment, revolution? Impact of low crude prices on oil powers (Guardian)
  • Midwest Flooding Might Make the Oil Glut Worse (BBG)
  • From Oil Glut to Shortage? Some Say It Could Happen (WSJ)
  • Ten Years After Blowup, Amaranth Investors Waiting to Get Money Back (WSJ)
  • China Fires a Warning Shot at Yuan Speculators With Bank Bans (BBG)
 
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Red Or Green For The Year: Decision Time For US Markets On Last Trading Day Of 2015





It has come down to this: a year in which the US stock market (led by a handful of shares even as the vast majority of stocks has dropped) has gone nowhere, but took the longest and most volatile path to get there, is about to close either red or green for 2015 based on what happens in today's low-volume session following yesterday's unexpected last half hour of trading "air pocket" which brought the S&P back to unchanged for the year.

 
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The Next Time Your Financial Advisor Tells You To Buy Stocks, Show Them This Chart





Perhaps mom and pop investors should show the following chart to their financial advisors, who directly or indirectly work for these institutions, and ask them: why should they be buying, when the counterparty they are buying from is, most likely, this very same financial advisor?

 
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Time For Torches & Pitchforks: The Little Guy Is About To Get Monkey-Hammered Again





The prospect that the leaders of our monetary politburo are about to be tarred and feathered by economic reality might be satisfying enough if it led to the repudiation of Keynesian central planning and a thorough housecleaning at the Fed. Unfortunately, it will also mean that tens of millions of retail investors and 401k holders will be taken to the slaughterhouse for the third time this century. And this time the Fed is out of dry powder, meaning retail investors will never recover as they did after 2002 and 2009.

 
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The New Cartel Running The Oil Sector





As oil prices wallow near multi-year lows, it’s becoming increasingly clear that the new cartel controlling oil prices is not OPEC but world credit markets. From Saudi Arabia’s record $100 billion deficit to shale oil’s continuing reliance on cheap credit funding, it’s clear that no major oil producer or company in the world right now is economically self-sufficient based on oil revenues alone. This situation has left the flow of oil and the decision on when to stop pumping the increasingly tarnished black gold in the hands of banks rather than oil men.

 
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Art Cashin's 2015 Summary: From Caitlyn Jenner To Confederate Flags





Two Thousand Fifteen had high hopes at the start, but a sharp selloff in August nearly ripped us apart; Then Draghi and Yellen swore that hope hadn't departed, so we stuttered and sputtered to just get back where we started.... Hoverboards were this season's really, really hot toy; And Bruce Jenner's now Caitlyn - he's no longer a boy

 
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The Cultural Contradictions That Have Crippled The Great American Middle Class





Conventional explorations of why the middle class is shrinking focus on economic issues such as the decline of unions and manufacturing, the increasing premiums paid to the highest-paid workers and the rising costs of higher education and healthcare. All of these factors have a role, but few comment on the non-economic factors, specifically the values that underpin the accumulation of capital that is the one essential project of middle class households.

 
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Goldman Admits It Was Wrong Forecasting 3% Yields For 2015 As It Forecasts A 3% Yield For 2016





If at first you don't succeed, try, try, keep trying again and again. That appears to be the mantra of Goldman's credit strategists.

 
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Frontrunning: December 30





  • Oil rebound fizzles, sending global shares lower (Reuters)
  • Saudi Arabia Won’t Change Oil Production (WSJ)
  • China suspends forex business for some foreign banks (Reuters)
  • Republicans come up short in search for diverse voters in 2016 election (Reuters)
  • Oil Prices Become a Problem for U.S. Steelmakers (BBG)
  • Oil-Producing States Battered as Tax-Gushing Wells Are Shut Down (BBG)
 
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Global Stocks, Futures Dragged Lower By Commodities As Oil Slumps Back Under $37





With just two days left in 2015, the main driver of overnight global stocks and US equity futures remains the most familiar one of all of 2015 - crude oil, which, after its latest torrid bounce yesterday has resumed the familiar "yoyo" mode, and again stumbled dropping below $37 on yesterday's surprising API 2.9 million crude inventory build, as well several more long-term "forecasts" by OPEC members, with Kuwait now budgeting for $30 oil, while Venezuela's Maduro said the oil price fell to $28/bbl and is "headed downward." As a result U.S. futures declined and European stocks fell, extending their worst December drop since 2002 in thin volume on the last full trading day of the year.

 
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Asia's Largest Commodity Trader Was Just Downgraded To Junk: Collateral Calls Next?





"Moody's downgrades Noble Group to Ba1; outlook negative.... "The downgrade of Noble's ratings reflects Moody's concerns over the company's liquidity," says Joe Morrison, a Moody's Vice President and Senior Credit Officer. The Ba1 ratings also reflect low levels of profitability and consistent negative free cash flow from core operating activities, which exclude proceeds from asset sales."

 
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The Dark Side Of A Record $5 Trillion In Mergers: Hundreds Of Thousands Of Imminent Layoffs





The winners from a $5 trillion M&A bubble: Wall Street bankers will make hundreds of millions in M&A fees. The losers: hundreds of thousands of workers who are about to be laid off, pardon, "synergized."

 
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"2016 Will Be No Fun" - Doug Kass Unveils 15 Surprises For The Year Ahead





My overriding theme and the central drama for the coming year is that unexpected events can take on greater importance as the Federal Reserve ends its near-decade-long Zero Interest Rate Policy. Consensus premises and forecasts will likely fall flat, in a rather spectacular manner. The low-conviction and directionless market that we saw in 2015 could become a no-conviction and very-much-directed market (i.e. one that's directed lower) in 2016. There will be no peace on earth in 2016, and our markets could lose a cushion of protection as valuations contract. (Just as "malinvestment" represented a key theme this year, we expect a compression of price-to-earnings ratios to serve as a big market driver in 2016.) In other words, we don't think 2016 will be fun.

 
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