Bond

"All-Time-Highs"

"...central bankers seem to view elevated security valuations as “wealth.” The longer this fallacy persists, the worse the subsequent fallout will be. I have little doubt that future generations will look at the reckless arrogance of today’s central bankers no differently than we view speculators in the South Sea Bubble and the Dutch Tulip-mania. Unfortunately, there is no mechanism by which historically-informed pleas of “no, stop, don’t!” will penetrate their dogmatic conceit. Nor can we change the psychology of investors."

US Futures, Global Markets Storm Higher As More Details Emerge About Japan's "Helicopter Money"

The global meltup continues with the S&P set to open at new all time highs, some 20 points higher from yesterday's close, however the driver for the latest rally is not so much the imminent BOE announcement which is expected to cut rates by 25 bps from 0.50%, but a dramatic surge in the USDJPY just after 1am Eastern when Bloomberg revealed more details about Ben Bernanke's masterplan for Japan's helicopter money.

Germany Sells First Ever Negative-Yielding 10Y Treasury, Corporate Bonds

Just hours prior to Germany selling its first ever negative-yield 10Y bund, German railway operator Deutsche Bahn became the first non-financial company to sell a corporate bond with a negative yield in euros on Tuesday. . Joint leads BayernLB and Raiffeisen Bank set the final spread at plus 15bp as orders reached 840m. The deal priced with a negative 0.006% yield and a 0% coupon.

The Four Things That Keep Citi Clients Up At Night

The investment community remains in a quandary as the S&P 500 hits new highs alongside fund managers struggling with portfolio performance. Three questions tend to be uppermost in their minds – 1) can “defensives” keep rallying, 2) how can investors be “bearish” if the S&P 500 touches record levels and 3) what if Trump wins? An added concern - or perhaps hope - is whether there a possibility of even higher P/E ratios if US bond yields are suppressed by negative yields elsewhere?

Why Helicopter Money Won't Push Stocks Higher

In effect, helicopter money turns the entire economy into a Ghost City. Things look busy and productive until the day the helicopter money runs out. From that day on, everything crashes back to reality and tumbleweeds are soon blowing down empty streets.

Gundlach Gets More Bearish, Says "Big Money" To Be Made On The "Short Side"

As we noted yesterday, in his latest webcast to DoubleLine investors, Jeff Gundlach confirmed the key points from his weekend Barrons which summarized his outlook that "things will get worse in the future, not better." But while Gundlach's skeptical bent has been well-known, we also learned that Gundlach has been actively adding to shorts as the market breaks out to new record highs. Cited by Reuters, the new bond king said that there is "big money" to be made on the "short side."

Global Stocks, Futures Rise On Disappointing Chinese Trade Data, Hopes For More Central Bank Intervention

In an otherwise quiet overnight session, which among other things saw Germany sell 10Y Bunds with a zero coupon and a negative yield (-0.05%) for the first time ever (despite being uncovered with just €4.038BN sold below the €5.00BN target) anyone hoping for a confirmation that China will be able to prop up the world economy once more, was left disappointed when earlier this morning China reported June exports and imports that once again dropped substantially in dollar terms as soft demand at home and abroad continued to weigh on the world’s largest trading nation.

Germany Is About To Sell Zero-Coupon 10 Year Bonds For The First Time Ever

On Wednesday morning Germany will sell 10-year bonds with a zero coupon for the first time, as a rally in fixed-income securities pushes investors to forgo annual interest payments in order to hold the safest assets. The nation is selling €5 billion of zero percent bonds due in August 2026 on Wednesday, after yields in the secondary market dropped to an all-time low of minus 0.205% last week.

Is Gundlach Still Bearish? Ask Him In His Latest DoubleLine Webcast - Live Feed

The higher the market goes, the more bearish DoubleLine's "bond king" Jeff Gundlach seems to get. Case in point, just yesterday we showed why according to Gundlach, things will get worse in the future, not better. And yet stocks keep going higher (thanks to central banks). So have the new S&P500 all time highs dented Gundlach's skepticism? Ask him yourself during the Q&A in his latest "asset allocation webcast" set to start momentarily.

Why JPM Now Thinks The S&P 500 Is Promptly Headed For 2,200

More of the same for this market. The 17x/$130 argument continues to resonate (that combination of numbers points to 2200). It’s still very, very early in the CQ2 season but the indications so are more positive than negative (AA, Daimler, PEP, Samsung, SIMO, STX, WDC, etc) and that is helping investors look past the earnings recession and is bolstering confidence in a ~$130 number for next year.