Taking advantage of an open debt issuance window, overnight Deutsche Bank issued another $1.5 billion in bonds, tapping a $3 billion bond issue that prices last Friday. The reason for the heightened investor interest is that DB agreed to pay a "near junk bond" yield of 4.191%, confirming that while DB sitll has market access it comes at a substantial cost.
Global stocks are pressured this morning after a plunge in the Thai stock market and currency on concerns about the king's health and Fed hikes coupled with some more bad news out of Samsung which cut profit estimates by a third, while European stocks are suffering after Swedish telecom giant Ericsson issued a profit warning, sending its shares plunging 17%.
Ever since the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis, investors have kept a close eye on financial developments in Thailand as canary in the Asian financial conditions coalmine, and overnight there was little to look forward to after Thai stocks crashed the most in over a year, plunging as much as 6.9% before settling 4.1%, lower while the baht currency tumbled 1.1%, its steepest plunge in three years.
"I am doubtful that the price of oil can rise very high, for very long. Our oil price problem is part of a much larger problem. Once we understand the reason for our low-price problem–diminishing returns and the economy’s tie to the use of energy - it is clear that there is no way out of the problem over the longer term."
Currently economists and market watchers roughly fall into two camps: Those who believe that the Federal Reserve must begin raising interest rates now so that it will have enough rate cutting firepower to fight the next recession, and those who believe that raising rates now will simply precipitate an immediate recession and force the Fed into battle without the tools it has traditionally used to stimulate growth. Both camps are delusional, but for different reasons.
Where's Vladimir Putin when we need him? Having saved the world yesterday by spiking crude oil with his comments, the return of bond traders today sees a resumption of risk-parity fund deleveraging (as bond-stock correlations neared record highs).
Global markets and US equity futures fell on Samsung Galaxy Note 7 contagion concern, while the dollar rose to its strongest level in 11 weeks and U.S. bonds declined as investors boosted wagers that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year.
"In the recent environment of low volatility, and with high valuations across assets, we are inclined to keep cash reserves to take advantage of more attractive entry points in case of shocks. Potential ‘growth shocks’ continue to loom until year-end as political risks remain elevated, given the upcoming US presidential elections and Italian referendum, and the UK government’s plan to trigger Article 50 by March 2017."
In the US focus will be on the market's reaction to the second presidential debate, FOMC Minutes but also retail sales, import and producer prices and Michigan sentiment. We also hear from various Fed speakers throughout the week, and Chair Yellen gives a keynote speech on Friday.