The fact is, Simple Janet has already proven the end game. Money printing central bankers can’t stop. Were they to allow financial prices to normalize and trillions of bad credit to be liquidated, the whole financial house of cards they have built around the planet would blow sky high. The "soft landing" case is a null set.
"The US stock market seems egregiously overvalued versus other stock markets... you are going to see declines in the US stock market and since the correlations are so high this means that probably the junk bond market will go back down, too. Negative interest rates are the dumbest idea ever. It’s horrible.... Gold is doing fine. It’s preserving capital in the US, it’s been making money over the last couple of years for European investors. That’s why I own gold.... Trump is going to win. I think Clinton and Sanders are both very poor candidates."
The SPV Loophole: Draghi Just Unleashed "QE For The Entire World"... And May Have Bailed Out US ShaleSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 04/22/2016 17:38 -0400
"The ECB stands ready to buy bonds from Euro Area issuers even when their parent companies are outside of the bloc. Already we can find a number of US, UK and Swiss headquartered names that issue out of SPVs incorporated in the Euro Area. If this trend to SPV issuance catches on, then the ECB’s policies will likely be very reflationary for all credit markets across the globe, and because of a likely refinancing wave – equity markets too."
"The market is moving so quickly, yesterday felt just like the stock market in June last year before the crash," warns one Asian trader reflecting on the chaotic rush of Chinese speculators into the industrial metals commodities market Echoing the frenzy that fueled China's parabolic stock market rise (and subsequent collapse), Bloomberg notes one local China broker admits "we’ve seen a lot of people opening accounts for commodities futures recently," adding rather ominously, "the great ball of China money is moving away from bonds and stocks to commodities." The spikes in everything from rebar to iron ore, however, according to Goldman "is not driven by a sustainable shift in fundamentals."
The goal is inflation. Central Banks will stop at nothing in their attempts to create it. The reason? Because the alternative is debt deflation which would implode the $100 trillion bond bubble.
The gold/silver ratio recently took out 2009 highs and the gold/copper ratio is at its highest level since 2009. This is a negative signal that US inflation, using CPI, could be headed for another leg lower. Since 2008, the gold/silver ratio has had a -73% correlation to the year-over-year change in US CPI (with a 2-quarter forward lag for the gold/silver ratio) . So as the gold/silver ratio increases, the year-over-year change in the CPI tends to fall.
You know the British establishment is in full panic mode when not only do they allow President Obama to visit the nation just a month after he threw Cameron "distracted by other things" and his European neighbors under the bus over the collapse of Libya, but, despite 100 members of Parliament signing a letter telling Obama "not to interfere" with Britain's domestic affairs, The Telegraph prints an Op-Ed in which the lame-duck president lords it over the British citizenry with a veiled threat that should they "his friends" leave Europe, the "special relationship" could be in jeopardy as "now is a time for friends and allies to stick together."
For those who believe that broad-based stimulus is coming to save the world from China (via RRR cuts or even pure QE) - as opposed to the hole-filling credit pump they just supported - think again. As we warned last year, this is 'western' thinking as the go to policy of the rest of the world's central banks has been - put on pants, print money, paper over cracks, proclaim victory. However, in China there is one big problem with this... stoking inflation... and most crucially the social unrest concerns when suddenly a nation of newly minted equity - and now bond - losers can no longer afford their pork - which is surging to record highs.
what until now was merely a terrible start to the year has turned absolutely brutal for Odey's European fund, which is now down nearly a third, or 31%, in the first four months of the year, wiping out almost half a decade of trading profits in his flagship hedge fund in less than four months. Is he ready to throw in the towel? Not even close: the billionaire who delights in fighting the Fed, is convinced he will have the last laugh: "The disconnect between travelling and arriving may be coming home to roost. It will make the retreat from Moscow appear painless."
Who’s afraid of the big bad bear? No one, it seems.
Although money supply growth remains historically strong and investors are desperately chasing returns in today’s ZIRP world and are therefore evidently prepared to take much greater risks than they otherwise would, an extremely overvalued market is always highly vulnerable to a change in perceptions. In a sense the rebound may actually turn out to be self-defeating, as it will increase the Fed’s willingness resume tightening policy.
Mind the terminal growth assumption. The warning signs are everywhere that what lies on the other side is not a world of 24.3X valuations.
- The CSPP aims to further strengthen the pass-through of the Eurosystem’s asset purchases to the financing conditions of the real economy.
- Purchases will start in June 2016.
- The CSPP will be carried out by six national central banks acting on behalf of the Eurosystem, coordinated by the ECB.
- In combination with other non-standard measures, the programme will provide further monetary policy accommodation and help inflation rates return to levels below, but close to, 2% in the medium term.
As expected today's ECB statements were a snoozer, and likely Mario Draghi's official statement will be too - "more of the same." However, the real fun and games will come as he combats questions on 1) the lack of effectiveness of QE so far (just wait, any day now it will work), and 2) helicopter money ("whatever it takes"). He better offer some hope for moar as EUR is surging into the meeting...
As was widely expected, moments ago the "sleepy" ECB announced that all its three key rates remain unchanged: "the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.40% respectively." There was one notably addition: the ECB announced it has "started to expand our monthly purchases under the asset purchase programme to €80 billion" as was also expected considering the tremendous rip in European corporate bonds.