With Russian stocks among the best performing in 2016 - and up dramatically since The White House issued its "sell" rating - it appears another key element of American's hegemony is also breaking down. When the US (and its European vassal states) unleashed sanction on Russia in July 2014, it sent bond yields spiking from 9% to over 14% as political and social risks were priced in (as demanded by Treasury). However, despite the ongoing sanctions and the pressure (whether implicit or explicit from Washington) on oil prices, Russian bond yields have disobeyed America and are back below 9% - the lowest level of risk since before sanctions were imposed.
There is a growing fear in financial and monetary circles that there is something deeply wrong with the global economy. Publicly, officials and practitioners alike have become confused by policy failures, and privately, occasionally even downright pessimistic, at a loss to see a statist solution. It is hardly exaggerating to say there is a growing feeling of impending doom. In short, growing evidence of price inflation and stagnant production can be expected to materially increase the risk of a global banking and currency meltdown. The best escape-route is ownership of anything other than purely financial assets and fiat currency deposits. No wonder the price of gold, which is the soundest of moneys, appears to have entered a new bull market.
"We expect that the return of some of these outages as well as higher Iran and Iraq production will more than offset lingering issues in Nigeria and our higher demand forecast. As a result, we now forecast a more gradual decline in inventories in 2H than previously and a return into surplus in 1Q17, with low-cost production continuing to grow in the New Oil Order. This leads us to lower our 2017 forecast with prices in 1Q17 at $45/bbl and only reaching $60/bbl by 4Q17."
Investors are fleeing and volumes are falling due to extreme valuations amid global uncertainties related to monetary policy and political decisions made in wake of the 2007-2009 financial crisis. It’s a flight that’s creating a negative feedback loop. "First it’s China, then Japan, then the ECB. When you singe the fingertips of speculators, they don’t like to play anymore," says Brean Capital managing director Russ Certo. Investors "are stewards of other people’s money and they don’t want to allocate capital to a pyramid scheme."
The current rash of cautious ignorant optimism is so very reminiscent of the period right after Bear Stearns in 2008. Ben Bernanke as late as June 2008: "The risk that the economy has entered a substantial downturn appears to have diminished over the past month or so." Janet Yellen said, “the strong incoming data on spending eased my fears that we are in or are approaching a recession regime” before expressing confidence in rate hikes starting in December 2008! The mainstream takes the absence of further liquidation as if there will be no more liquidations when in fact the likelihood of more of them only rises the more they are artificially “contained.”
Never before have central bankers done so much to achieve so little... and yet they continue to propagandize more of the same...
Liquidity Problems? Deutsche Bank Offers 5% Yields If Depositors Lock Up Their Money For Three MonthsSubmitted by Tyler Durden on 05/14/2016 21:53 -0400
We were surprised to find that in a promotional offer by Europe's biggest (and by many accounts most insolvent) bank, Germany's Deutsche Bank is not only not rushing to penalize depositors, on the contrary it is offering its Belgian clients a 5% gross return for new €10,000 - €50,000 deposits if this money is locked up for the next three months. The offer is only valid for the next 40 days, until June 24.
On March 10, 2016 when the ECB announced the biggest expansion to quantitative easing in European history, when it shocked the market by announcing not only a reduction in its negative rate and expansion in the TLTRO program, but also the launch of a corporate bond monetization program.Well maybe not "shocked" the market, because as Bloomberg writes, ECB board members met with representatives of banks and investment managers including Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, Credit Suisse and Moore Europe Capital Management in February, just days before the ECB's March 10 announcement.
Another week goes by and another gaggle of Fed guffaws pukes out the same old 'we are data-dependent' meme, the same old 'everything is on track' narrative, and the same old 'bonds are wrong, stocks are right' idiocy. Do they not see what this constant nonsense has done to Kuroda and The Bank of Japan's credibility - propagandizing in the face of overwhelming facts. In order to help those who just can't seem to shake off the "well The Fed said it so it must be true" denial pysche, we offer the following chart...
XOM is trading as a Bond in this yield chasing QE inspired Central Bank World, and FB is your classic momentum stock
What we’re looking at is going to be much more serious than any past crisis, partly because America has already evaporated, like the morning haze on a hot summer's day. You're not in Kansas anymore. Kansas isn't in Kansas anymore.
We have deviated so far from free markets at this point that even the top financial minds no longer have any understanding of what is meant by capitalism. It must be true, for anyone who understands capitalism could never have published such a letter. The logic in Mr. Gross’s argument is beyond invalid, in fact, it is so ludicrous it borders on insane. We mean this quite literally...
The biggest concern for China, and the world, is that now that China's credit impulse is gone, it means that the it is only a matter of time before the impetus behind Chinese, and global growth, evaporates as per the timeline persented in the following Goldman chart, which explained the surge in Q1 economic activity, and which now anticipates a steep slowdown in the second and subsequent quarters unless China manages to stoke its unsustainable credit growth once again.