Bond

Yuan Dumps, Bitcoin Jumps As China Researchers Suggest "One-Off Devaluation" & Capital Controls

As we have detailed numerous times recently, the recent move in Bitcoin has been strongly suggesting increasing fears of capital controls and/or expectations of a looming (and quite notable) devaluation of the Yuan against the US Dollar. Tonight saw China's largest nationalist tabloid suggesting that China should consider one-off yuan devaluation to keep the currency stable at equilibrium level. Offshore Yuan is tumbling - to new record lows.

JPM: "Central Banks Have Created Unprecedented Distortions In Government Bond Markets"

"The biggest experiment in central bank history ($11 trillion and counting as of November 2016) helped employment recover in the US and UK, and more recently in Europe and Japan. Across all regions, however, too many of the benefits from this experiment accrued to holders of financial assets rather than to the average citizen. As a result, the political center of a slow-growth world has begun to erode."

How George Soros Destroyed The Democratic Party

In 2016, Republicans control both legislative chambers in 32 states. That’s up from 16 in 2000. What happened to the big donkey? Among other things, the Democrats decided to sell their base and their soul to a very bad billionaire and they got a very bad deal for both.

Kunstler: 2017 Is When The Wheels Finally Come Off

The American people have been punked by their own government and their central bank, the Federal Reserve, for years and the jig is now up. In 2017 both will lose their authority and legitimacy, a very grave matter for the survival of this republic.

What Keeps Goldman Up At Night About 2017

Between China, credit markets, financial conditions, political uncertainty, the consequences of Brexit, the presidential elections, global trade, the risk of sharp reflation, and the impotence of central banking, here are the top things that keep Goldman Sachs up at night about 2017.

European Stocks Greet The New Year By Rising To One Year Highs; Euro Slides

While most of the world is enjoying it last day off from the 2017 holiday transition, with Asia's major markets closed for the New Year holiday, along with Britain and Switzerland in Europe and the US and Canada across the Atlantic, European stocks climbed to their highest levels in over a year on Monday after the Markit PMI survey showed manufacturing production in the Eurozone rose to the highest level since April 2011.

A Biased 2017 Forecast, Part 1

"We are prone to overestimate how much we understand about the world and to underestimate the role of chance in events..."

"Something For Nothing" All-Weather Funds Disappoint In Post-Election Era

Variously marketed as "all-weather", "all-season", or "bulletproof", the so-called "risk-parity" strategies of some of the world's largest hedge funds have been anything but 'stable' since the election as the combination of leverage and bond losses have crushed the gains from an exuberant equity market.

Goldman's 10 Most Important Questions For 2017

Goldman Sachs is relatively optimistic about growth in 2017, for three reasons: first, despite the lack of spare capacity, US recession risk remains below the historical average; second, financial conditions should remain a growth tailwind - at least in the first half of 2017; and third, we expect a fiscal easing accumulating to 1% of GDP by 2018. However, uncertainty remains and here is what Jan Hatzius and his team believe are the ten most important questions for 2017.

2016 - A Year Of Trading Dangerously

If 2016 taught traders anything, it was that old norms were useless and the concept of the market as a discounting mechanism (as opposed to an algo-driven headline-reacting maelstrom of manias) is lost forever. This flipping of reality is nowhere more evident in the topsy turvy shifts in risk expectations across global asset classes - where 'safe' is now riskiest and 'riskiest' is now safe.

Italy's Insolvent Monte Paschi To Issue €15 Billion In Debt

Italy's Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS.MI), which is being bailed out by the state, plans to issue 15 billion euros ($15.8 billion) of debt next year to restore liquidity and boost investor confidence, several newspapers said on Friday.