Bond

"The Only Asset That Matters Right Now" - Treasury Correlations Have Never Been Higher

As a result of an unprecedented scramble for duration over the past year courtesy of global NIRP, the sensitivity to bond yields is at its all time highs across all assets, which means whatever the 10Y does, everything else will do, especially as a result of the ongoing rout in risk-parity and systematic funds which create a positive selling (or buying) feedback loop.

Is The Latest Risk-Parity Blow Up Just Starting

"the focus on risk parity unwinds is here to stay even beyond the next couple of weeks. As the polls for the US elections narrow further, higher volatility and increasing likelihood of fiscal stimulus will keep this theme alive.”"

Raoul Pal: Business Cycle Tinder For A Global Banking System Fire

"...after every single two-term presidential election (i.e. when the incumbent changes) and there is a 100% track record of a recession within the next 12 months. It either starts just beforehand or starts afterward, but within 12 months there is a 100% chance of a recession... Even if they do raise rates, the yield curve will flatten like crazy... I think the Fed is almost an irrelevance at this point."

Why The EU Is Doomed

We are accustomed to looking at Europe’s woes in a purely financial context. This is a mistake, because it misses the real reasons why the EU will fail and not survive the next financial crisis. We normally survive financial crises, thanks to the successful actions of central banks as lenders of last resort. However, the origins and construction of both the the euro and the EU itself could ensure the next financial crisis commences in the coming months, and will exceed the capabilities of the ECB to save the system.

Previewing Next Week's Main Event: What Will The BOJ Do? (Spoiler Alert: Probably Nothing)

At the BOJ's next Monetary Policy Meeting on September 20-21, the Central Bank will conduct a “comprehensive assessment” of trends in economic activity and prices under the current policy framework, as well as the policy impact, with a view to achieving its 2% price stability target at the earliest possible time. Here is what to expect from next week's main event.

Someone Just Placed A Massive Bet That The Solar City, Tesla Deal Fails

Following June's proposal, the merger of kissing-cousins TSLA and SCTY was confirmed in early August. Since then, the market has begun to aggressively price out the probability that the deal goes through as SCTY tumbles relative to SCTY's offer. Even more concerning is the massive bet someone just made that in the options market that the deal will not go through in Q4 as expected.

World's Most Bearish Hedge Fund Says Active Manager Capitulation Is "Getting Close"

"Ultimately everyone is forced in. Sometimes this happens through capitulation by previously sceptical investors, or sometimes it happens through pure greed as fear of missing out takes over. The big question is, how close are we to that moment? I think we are indeed getting close. Goldman Sachs data on hedge funds show that top 10 positions for average hedge funds make up 70% of long positions."

Goldman Downgrades S&P 500, Stoxx 600 To Sell, Cites "Elevated Valuations And The Risk Of Shocks"

After tactfully warning clients for months that staying invested in US stocks and bonds is an unacceptable risk, overnight Goldman's Peter Oppenheimer finally changed Goldman's official "tactical" bias, and as of this moment recommends selling not only bonds, as well as the S&P500 and Europe's Stoxx 600 "due to elevated valuations across assets and the risk of shocks."