Bond

Meanwhile... The Yield Curve Is Crashing-er

Remember Monday when stocks jumped and the yield curve steepened and every talking head and their pet rabbit said the bond market is about to explode... well the yield curve is now imploding again with 5s30s crashing almost 10bps to 64bps - the lowest since Oct 2007.

Frontrunning: December 1

  • Tillerson, Cohn Could Leave White House in Wave of Senior Departures (WSJ)
  • Senate grapples with tax cut plan's impact on deficit (Reuters)
  • Here’s Where the GOP Tax Plan Stands Right Now (BBG)
  • Markets ignore best European factory data in 17 years (Reuters)
  • Tax Debate Plays Out in TV Ads Targeting Key States Across U.S. (BBG)

Global Stocks, US Futures Slide As Tax Bill Chaos Erupts In The Senate

Markets were thrown for a loop in the past 24 hours, with the Dow first soaring nearly 400 points on Thursday on expectations that tax reform was a done deal, when drama emerged just after the close when the Senate tax bill came this close to falling apart when the proposed "Trigger" was ruled as invalid, pushing a Thursday vote to this morning, and sending global stocks sliding over concerns of its passage.

Russia Plans First-Ever Sale Of Yuan Bonds

"It would be wise of Russia to tap the yuan market now. China remains Russia’s biggest trade partner, China’s enormous financial system has lots of buying potential, too."

The Mean-Reverting History Of Profit Growth

As the markets push once again into record territory the question of valuations becomes ever more important.  While valuations are a poor timing tool in the short term for investors, in the long run, valuation levels have everything to do with future returns.

Bill Blain: "Something Has Changed"

"Something has changed. The downside feedback loop hasn’t functioned through 2017. Instead a new behavioural paradigm shift occurred. Investors now believe negatives don’t impact growth and that market upside is unlimited."

Frontrunning: November 30

  • The thinking behind Kim Jong Un's 'madness' (Reuters); U.S. warns North Korean leadership will be 'utterly destroyed' in case of war (Reuters)
  • Senate tax drama enters complicated end-game gambit (Reuters)
  • Corporate Tax Rate in Flux as Senate Prepares to Vote (WSJ)
  • The Senate Tax Bill Has Something for Every Republican to Hate (BBG)
  • Bitcoin Mania: Even Grandma Wants In (WSJ)

Dow Hits Record 24,000, Europe Jumps As Euphoria Returns After Tech Rout

Despite a Wednesday dive in high-flying U.S. tech stocks on worries their boom may have peaked following a MS downgrade, which presured Asian stocks leading to a slide in Hong Kong and South Korean share, on Thursday morning the dip buyers have emerged and both European stocks and US equity futures are once again solidly in the green as yesterday's tech selloff is quickly forgotten.