• CalibratedConfidence
    08/30/2015 - 08:34
    Luckily we didn't hear anything more about Vomiting Camel formations but there was certainly an ample amount of "it's priced in" blaring in the background.

Bond

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Only The Date Is Unknown





The US and world economies are frauds that are coming unraveled. The Greek bailout is the most recent example of “kick the can down the road” solutions. The US housing bubble was an attempt to cover up/recover from the dot-com bust. Now the US is in a financial bubble engineered to recover from the housing bubble debacle. Soon this bubble will burst. Only the date is unknown.

 
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Chinese Stocks Crash 10% In 2 Days Despite Stable Yuan, Margin Debt Drops First Time In 8 Days





UPDATE: At the end of the morning session there is more blood on the streets as The PPT never turned up... Chinese stocks are now down 10-12% since Monday's close.

Following yesterday's massive CNY120bn liquidity injection - the largest since Jan 2014 - and the notable absence of the plunge protection team in the afternoon rout ("we're only here for emergencies"), we note that margin debt fell for the first time in 8 days as Chinese farmers and grandmas realized once again that the stock market is not a free-ride to nirvana. Chinese stock futures indicate the losses will be extended at the open (SHCOMP -2.7%) as the Yuan fix is held unchanged.

 
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Aug 19 - PBOC injects $48bn into China Development Bank





The central bank has injected new capital into the China Development Bank (CDB), which provides medium and long term financing to major national projects, in a bid to reinforce its capital adequacy.

 
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This Is What Capitulation Looks Like, EM Positioning Is Most Extreme On Record





Given the carnage unfolding across EM currencies and the myriad headwinds the world's emerging economies face going forward, it should come as no surprise that sentiment has turned decisively negative. Is it time to be a contrarian? BofAML thinks so.

 
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More Trouble In Turkey As Lira Plunges To New Lows, Bond Yields Soar





Political turmoil, rising violence, and general EM malaise have hit Turkey's currency hard and on Tuesday, the central bank left rates unchanged prompting further weakness in the lira which had already fallen earlier in the session after Emine Nur Gunay, PM Davutoglu's chief adviser, hinted that a rate hike was not in the cards.

 
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Gartman Stopped Out Of Treasury Short





"We Were Short… Now We Are Not!: The trend since mid-June is upward and today’s collapse in the Chinese stock market will serve only to make the bid for the US bond market that much stronger!" - Dennis Gartman

 
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China Stocks Crash, More Than Half Of Market Halted Limit Down; PBOC Loss Of Control Spooks Global Assets





Just hours after the PBOC announced a modestly "revalued" fixing in the CNY, which curiously led to weaker trading in the onshore Yuan for most of the day before a forceful last minute intervention by the central bank pushed it back down to 6.39 it was the local stock market spinning plate - which had been relatively stable during the entire FX devaluation process - that China lost control over, and after 7 days of margin debt increases the Shanghai Composite plunged by 6.2% in late trade, tumbling 245 points to 3748, just 240 points above its recent trough on July 8, a closing level some 27% off its June peak.

 
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Frontrunning: August 18





  • China stocks slump 6 percent on fears of further yuan depreciation (Reuters)
  • U.S. Lacks Ammo for Next Economic Crisis (Hilsenrath)
  • Emerging Markets Extend Slide as Commodities Fall; Pound Jumps (BBG)
  • China yuan to move both ways, more 'adjustments' unlikely: central bank economist (Reuters)
  • Playing Chinese markets is as simple as 'follow the leader' (Reuters)
  • PBOC Injection Shows China Worries About Outflows (WSJ)
  • Russia Fails to Soothe Oil Concerns as Citi Joins Ruble Bears (BBG)
 
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Greek Deposits Become Eligible For Bail-In On January 1, 2016





Earlier today an EU official was reported as saying that Greek banks will exclude all depositors from losses until the EU’s Bank Recovery and Resolution Directive rules go into effect on Jan. 1, 2016Needless to say this was vastly different to Dijsselbloem's blanket guarantee statement from Friday, and suggests that depositors will indeed be bailed-in, but not right now: only after BRRD rules come in place on the first day of 2016.

 
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From Crisis To Confiscation - Where Do I Store My Wealth?





It's human nature for us to want to keep our wealth close at hand. Trouble is, you have all your wealth in one jurisdiction, and should that jurisdiction find itself in an economic crisis, all that “diversification” will be seriously at risk. If we’re being really truthful with ourselves, governments pose a greater threat than the average thief, as they can steal legally. Much of the world has gone on a massive spending spree and has, in effect, used a credit card to do so. Soon, that bill will need to be paid and the jurisdictions that are in debt will unquestionably be revealed to be insolvent. The economic crisis, when it hits, will be sudden and will be devastating.

 

 
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Currency Carnage: Gross Warns On "Fakers And Breakers", Morgan Stanley Tells Asia To Watch Its REER





What does China's "surprise" move to devalue the yuan mean for "broken" EM currencies? Nothing good, Morgan Stanley says. In short, the path ahead is riddled with exported deflation and decreased trade competitiveness against a backdrop of declining global growth and trade.

 
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What Happens If The Energy Multiple Mean Reverts





We show the answer on the chart below: it shows the current price of the S&P energy sector juxtaposed with where the sector would be if one applied a 13.6x multiple to every EPS data point in its history. Not surprisingly, it reveals an energy sector trading at 262.3, about 50% below the current price. It means that the current energy sector price of 506, which is 93% higher to the implied price, has a long way to drop if and when multiple mean-reversion finally sets in.

 
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"There Is A Special Species Of Idiot At Large In The Financial Markets"





America is at the bottom of a self-knowledge low cycle in which we are incapable of constructing a coherent story about what is happening to us. The techno-industrial fiesta was such a special experience that we can’t believe it might be coming to an end. So, one option is to believe stories that have no basis in reality. As Tom McGuane wrote some forty years ago: “Life in the old USA gizzard had changed and only a clown could fail to notice. So being a clown was a possibility.”

 
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Funds For Fracking Finally Dry Up: One Last Hail Mary Pass Remains





Is Saudi Arabia on the verge of winning the war on US Shale firms? It appears the spigot of malinvestment-subsidizing liquidity that kept numerous zombie energy firms alive has been shut off almost entirely. As oil prices return to cycle lows, so credit risk has spiked to record highs and issuance of life-giving bonds has collapsed. As Reuters reports, this has opened up opportunities for deep-pocketed private equity firms to push for restructuring or buy assets as many oil companies need cash to replenish banks' slimmed-down lending facilities, service their bonds and finance drilling of new wells to keep pumping oil and sustain cash flow. But hope is fading as one private equity form CEO warns "I would say, this is a good time to be careful when it comes to investing in energy."

 
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