Bond

Did Michelle Obama Also "Borrow" For Her 2008 Speech

“...is based upon the application of certain basic truths: that integrity is all important, that your word is your bond, that if you owe a person money you pay him back, that you work hard, enjoy what you do and show a loyalty to those with whom you work and do business. He instilled in me simple, clear cut values and a will to succeed.”

- Rob Marsh, "Business success in South Africa", 1992

Melania Trump Accused Of Plagiarising Convention Speech From Michelle Obama

The highlight of the first day of the Republican convention was the speech by Donald Trump's wife Melania, who was seeking to make a memorable impression on the world, and may have done just that... only not in the way she had envisioned.  Because in her potentially breakthrough moment, Melania appears to have lifted some of her first night convention speech from a surprising source: a similar speech by none other than Michelle Obama.

US Futures Dip, European Stocks Slide After EU Court Slams Italian Bank Bailout Plans

After a head-scratching S&P500 rally - which not even Goldman has been able to justify - pushed stocks to new all time highs with seemingly daily record highs regardless of fundamentals or geopolitical troubles, overnight US equity futures dipped modestly, tracking weak European stocks as demand for safe haven assets including U.S. Treasuries and gold rises. Asian stocks outside Japan fall. Crude oil trades near $45 a barrel. 

Citi Is Stunned How Quickly The "Extraordinary Political Backdrop" Is Deteriorating

"These developments point to a marked increase in political risks in systemically-significant countries. At the start of the year, we flagged many of these as  well as introducing our thesis that rising Geopolitical Risks, accompanied by rising "Vox Populi" risks such as Brexit and changing US politics, were at risk of converging in new and powerful ways. Even so, we did not anticipate quite how many would transpire, let alone within such a compressed timeframe."

Treasuries Will Tell You All You Need To Know

Even with the S&P 500 hovering at all time highs and currencies moving all over the place, Bloomberg's Richard Breslow says the only asset class that is dispositive right now is bonds.

Largest US Pension Fund Suffers Worst Annual Return Since Financial Crisis Due To Heavy Stock Losses

While we have often documented the dramatic underperformance by the hedge fund industry over the past decade, today we learn that "vanilla" asset managers were also hurt over the past year in which the S&P went nowhere. Case in point: Calpers, the largest U.S. public pension fund which as the WSJ reports posted its lowest annual gain since the last financial crisis due to heavy losses in stocks.

European Central Banks Disclose Which Corporate Bonds They Own

Earlier today, alongside the ECB's latest weekly disclosure of total corporate bond purchases under the CSPP program, which as of July 15 had risen by approximately €2 billion to €10.427 billion, suggesting a daily purchase pace of about €400 million, Europe's various regional central banks also disclosed for the first time the CUSIP list of which specific bonds they had purchased over the past month and a half.

With The S&P 140 Points From Its 2018 Year End Target, Goldman Is Confused

Goldman found itself in the confusing position of being far more bearish than its clients, predicting that the S&P will rise less than 150 points over the next two and a half years and has to explain the reasons behind its bearishness, as well as the reason why it expects a sharp 5-10% drawdown in the S&P in the coming months.

US Futures Rebound Sharply From Friday's Coup Fears, Focus Shifts To M&A

Having panciked briefly on Friday night on news of a Turkish coup, which has since not only failed but been cast away as speculation rises that it was staged and designed to give Erdogan even more authoritarian power, markets have moved on and are now focusing on the main overnight event which was the surprising $32 billion bid by Japan's SoftBank for U.K.’s semiconductor giant ARM which has sent comparable semis higher in European trading and pushing the Stoxx Europe 600 Index up by 0.6%, after surging 3.2% last week. After sliding sharply on Friday, US equity futures are up 0.1% in early trading.

Grant Williams: The Rising Danger Of A Bidless Market

"Through life, behavior is reinforced by consequences. And since 2008, everything possible has been done to avoid the consequences... and now we've got a bunch of people now who are essentially paid to believe central banks...we will see all the unintended consequences of these actions come out when people want to hit a bid and there's not a bid there. It could get ugly."

Morgan Stanley: "To Make Up For A 10% Drop In The S&P, Treasury Yields Would Need To Go… Negative"

Take a 60/40 portfolio constructed today from the S&P 500 and US Treasuries. To make up for a 10% decline in the equity market, Treasury yields would need to go… negative. Not impossible, but certainly a high hurdle! We think investors in European and Japanese bonds are seeing a clear example of this dilemma, with Bunds and JGBs simply unable to rally enough to offset recent equity market declines.

With "Stock Valuations At Extremes" Goldman's Clients Are Asking Just One Question

This week the S&P 500 surged to a new record high of 2164 this week while the 10-year US Treasury yield touched an all-time low of 1.37%. As a result Goldman, and especially its clients, are stumped. As chief equity strategist David Kostin admits, they have one burning question. As Kostin puts it, they "are struggling to reconcile how extreme valuations of both assets can co-exist."

Weekend Reading: If I Was Janet Yellen

Unfortunately, for Janet, this is the 'trap'. The liquidity will dry up, the inventory restocking cycle will end, and the next “crisis” will be on the horizon with Ms. Yellen remaining stuck near the “zero bound.”  The past opportunities to “normalize” interest rate policy have come and gone. This opportunity will likely pass also and, as always, the Fed will realize far too late they are trapped. But by then, it won’t matter much to investors, or what’s left of them, anyway.